Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Boston Bread]

Prentice wins reelection in his own riding.

Don't worry. It will only prolong his suffering.

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All the 5 leaders are going to be elected - before the election 4 of them were in at least some doubt.

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Prentice is one of the few Alberta cons who have suffered the ignominy of losing twice to the NDP. He ran in Calgary in 1986 and lost to the NDP, and now as a provincial PC leader.

The only way it could get better is if he ran federally and lost again.

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I'll think of all the pundits who predicted a PC government (some even said a majority) as I fall asleep tonight.

I for one will be feasting on the tears on Sun/NP/tory blogs. Best served fresh.

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Final (Pointless) results in Calgary-Foothills
P.C: 7,163
NDP: 5,748
Wildrose: 3,230
Liberal: 1,272
Green: 363

NDP+1

[Boston Bread]

(Including Prentice) what is the percentage of incumbents that won't be returning to the legislature?

PCs lost 45-50 incumbents, plus Blakeman (L). 61 incumbents are running (I think). So roughly 80% of incumbents lost.

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"we got about 20 seats! *cheers*"
My, what a difference 3 years makes. Or 2 weeks for that matter.

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Notley about to finally speak!

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Instead of worrying about the quality of some NDP MLA's, I'm pleased that so many ordinary folks were elected this time around. Gives me hope that the power of the elites can be overcome, etc.

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I want to hear Njall's and Lotuslander's thoughts on recent events. (for different reasons)

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Prentice


Jean


Notley


Atlas Forum

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I we had something like the "Blue Georgia is turning into Red Georgia" gif. This time it actually happened!

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Harper's provincial representative is now NDP.

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Griff, seat #77 (Rimbey-Rocky... long name) should be Wildrose. Thanks for make of course.

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If a united right is happening, it won't be initiated by Wildrose.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/edmonton/Wildrose+Leader+Brian+Jean+says+entertain+idea+merging/11034041/story.html
I still think some PCs will cross nonetheless. But I applaud Jean for this of course.

Even if the Wildrose win next time, I'm not really worried like many progressives were in 2012 about this possibility. Main reason being: if the Wildrose win, they'll have to absorb most of the current PC base at the very least. Doing so requires them to moderate relative to their base's expectations - and what they'll end up as is a standard blue tory government much like the current federal one. I won't approve but it's hardly going to be a Tea Party style wreck. And blue tories winning Alberta isn't exactly unprecedented.

[Boston Bread]

The oil bosses might have favoured PCs, but the workers there definitely did not.
Shades of


Also

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[Boston Bread]

Out of curiosity, who are some of the more interesting NDP/Wildrose candidates who won? I've heard that in terms of gender and ethnicity, the candidates were pretty diverse this time around, but I don't know much about them (besides Notley).

Some of may be just rumors, but Twitter and NP have given me this list of oddball NDPers:

A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.
A CS university student.
A Poli Sci student.
Someone with Duck Dynasty-style facial hair. https://twitter.com/FailedProtostar/status/595780884076371969
An 18 year old
A barista
A yoga instructor
This young woman celebrating 420 on Facebook https://twitter.com/GlenStromquist/status/595969029556215809

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A Chavismo supporter who defeated a PC incumbent by 40 points.

So at least one confirmed HP.

Buzz on Twitter is that he will get a cabinet position, maybe finance. But then again I only hear about him from conservatives.

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Yes, please refer to Adam on all caucus/cabinet related things when you want facts not twitter rumours .

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Couldn't Postmedia come up with better propaganda if they had enough money to bribe the province's entire print media?
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/future-tense-how-the-ndp-changed-alberta-video

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I just realized: Does this now mean that Alberta has the most left wing government of any province?

Because if so...whoa.

Until they come up with policy proposals, it's hard to compare them with the Manitoba NDP which have a year before they face the electorate.

It also depends on your idea of what's more left - a hike on corporate taxes that generates modest revenue (Alberta) or a hike on sales tax that generates a high revenue (Manitoba). I prefer the former.

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http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/alberta-election-2015-ndp-sings-for-joy-harper-s-caucus-like-morgue-1.3063472

Some CPC MP has resorted to calling their biggest stronghold "Albertastan". Keep on insulting the electorate, eh?

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According to Abacus's post-NDPcopalypse poll, the NDP coalition Rachel built is quite similar to NDP coalitions in other provinces, contrary to some polls during the campaigns which showed the NDP doing better with men and the wealthy.

http://abacusdata.ca/no-regrets-about-election-outcome-say-albertans-in-new-poll/



More women than men, more poor than rich, more public sector than private. So not that odd, except for it being in Alberta. One interesting demographic is parents with children - one that is usually more conservative than average, but it seems like the NDP have really made inroads with them. Ontario 2014 showed this trend as well.

Some other facts:
1) Despite the huge poll lead, the most common reaction among Albertans was "surprised".
2) 73% (!!!!) said they would consider voting NDP if they did a good job. More Wildrose than PC voters agree.
3) The only demographics which didn't vote NDP were 60+ and retired (PC), rural and self-employed (WR).

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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/anam-kazim-wins-for-ndp-in-calgary-glenmore-after-recount-1.3076036

Njall officially has an NDP edit: MLA now.

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We know it was about change. The better question would've been, why the NDP over the Wildrose?

I think the debate is what made NDP change more credible than Wildrose change among Albertans, seeing as how Wildrose actually led the NDP in polling up to that point. That was when Notley's approval rating shot up to a huge 60%. Meanwhile Jean and Swann stayed invisible and Prentice continued to slip.