Would members agree with this?

[bullmoose88]

If a candidate is leading in a state poll by more than the number of people who have not chosen a candidate, that candidate can be deemed as the winner

For instance, if a state poll has McCain 50% Obama 35%, that state could be called for McCain but a McCain 45% Obama 40% poll would be a tossup?

I'd certainly agree with that if we're talking about an incumbent or candidate who has incumbent type advantages.