Also explains why Obama will have so much trouble in PA, WV and KY.
But here's a distinguishing feature about PA...Philadelphia. Yeah there are poorer white dems and hispanics which Hillary should do well with...and the neighboring jersey burbs favored clinton...but I think the PA burbs aren't like South Jersey...they're far more latte liberal.
Obama could do quite well in SE PA and in the city...I can't say so much about metro PA...but i imagine he'd win the state college area...hold his own in the lehigh valley...which is becoming more latte liberal as it also becomes exurban conservative...
I ask Al's question also - I understand what's there in the Philly burbs - that's Obama's only saving grace. Sub-10% black population doesn't help, however. Also, what happens in the Keystone Phil area of Philadelphia - I kind of mentioned it earlier in some other thread, but this rhetorical question needs to be repeated.
State College is fine, but we've got western PA, not to mention northeast PA that's just going to be ugly for him. Can Obama overcome that, in addition to Ed Rendell controlling the reins of everything in Philadelphia?
A few thoughts. I'm sure Al can add.
Very good points...I'm sure Keystone Phil's area of philly will depend on Union endorsements...and I'm sure Eddie won't let Hillary get too bogged down in the city...but Philadelphia has a very large African American population...duh.
I don't know what Obama can get in the city of Pittsburgh...obviously suburban Pittsburgh won't go well for him.
I guess Rendell's influence will be important, but not too strong...the PA dems really can't afford to piss off the African Americans...so any method to outvoting them (as it seems Hillary needs...and I don't mean that in some sort of race war way...which it may sound) has to be fairly subtle. Hillary simply can't afford to piss off PA african americans when she desperately needs the state in november....now back to the state
Northeastern PA...seems bad for Obama...unless he gets some union endorsements
Southeastern PA...would favor him
Philadelphia...Obama wins...but the real question is how much
The T...Decent Sized Clinton win...Obama could get some votes in Lancaster (the "city") and Harrisburg...and in State College (Centre County) but I cant see more...how did Hillary do in the border counties in NY state...thats probably how she'll do in the majority of the T
Western PA, outside of Pittsburgh itself...is very very bad for Obama...where's soulty to throw in his couple pennies on this.