but as the field narrows, Romney will get shellacked
Romney needs to avoid having Christie in the race. Then he otherwise needs the number of conservative candidates to be pretty high for a significant amount of time. Romney would need to win NH, keep expectations low and meet them in the conservative primaries and caucuses while having multiple conservative candidates win those events.
In short Romney needs to come out of the initial stages with a plurality and looking like he's the most electable nationally and the inevitable nominee.
Pretty hard to do, and if he doesn't...toast.
