International COVID-19 Megathread

[parochial boy]

Poor Germans

Projections coming out of Africa are not looking very encouraging:

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/coronavirus-updates-china-transparency-uk-vaccine-taskforce/12160440#Africa

".without mitigation etc etc....the study calculated over 1.2 billion Africans would be infected and 3.3 million would die this year. Africa has a total population of around 1.3 billion."

Africa is extremely under-prepared for this.

The main issue is lack of reporting. You are just not going to see any meaningful numbers like that generated by first world medical infrastructure.

Yeah, Africa is disaster in the making. The only silver lining for the continent might be that their population is extremely young on average, which sort of compensate the lack of medical ressources. However, even then the total number of deaths will be pretty high.

Trouble is, they're damned if they do and damned if they don't. When you have a population that is living literally day to day, no regular income, shared access to things like sanitary facilities or running water then it is completely unfeasible to even think about the sort of lockdowns that we have in Europe. The conditions you'd be creating would be utterly horrific (cf India for an example of how things can go wrong).

[parochial boy]

Going back to an earlier theme, stark differences in the levels of mortality across Switzerland's linguistic regions - put into perspective with neighbouring countries



source - Blick.ch

[parochial boy]

It’s one thing that such huge differences even exist in different European countries, but it’s quite crazy that these big differences exist within a single country, Switzerland, as well ...

I think this is common in many countries
a example from Italy

the 3 regions more hit
Lombardy 120 deaths for 100K
Aosta Valley 98 deaths for 100K
Emilia Romagna 66 deaths for 100K
the 3 regions less hit
Calabria 4 deaths for 100K
Sicily 4 deaths for 100K
Basilicata 4 deaths for 100K

Switzerland's only about the size of Lomabrdy though. The thing that is really eye-catching as how all the regions basically mirror what is going on in the countries that speak the same language; even despite the same healthcare system nationwide and exactly the same measures being implemented at exactly the same time across the country. Ticino's proximity to Lombardy is obviously a factor, but that doesn't really explain why Romandie is so hard hit - especially since the worst affected area of France actually borders a German speaking part of Switzerland.

[parochial boy]

The UK is still pretty unique in that it only reports hospital deaths though. 40-50% of deaths in Belgium, France and Switzerland were non-hospitalised. The first two have been catching up from pervious underporting, and Switzerland records any instance where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate - even without a test. It's harder to tell with other countries, but it seems that Italy and Spain are showing similar proportions. The latter two, and Germany, in particular are probably undercounting quite a bit as they more-or-less require a positive test for a death to be counted, and Germany's testing is pretty complete it would seem. So even then the UK's numbers are going to be particularly fictional relative to the rest of the continent.

[parochial boy]

Good news from Geneva, which reported minus one new cases today.

[parochial boy]

I've been looking at some of the details on mortality that Swiss cantons have been releasing. There is a pretty consistent picture that around 70-80% of deaths in the last two weeks have been outside of hospitals; and in the one or two cases that cantons release figures - nearly half of the reported deaths are people who never tested positive for the virus. Even despite having one of the most liberal methodologies to count fatalities, there are still about 400 "unexplained" deaths when looking at excess mortality figures since the beginning of March.

Suffice to say that this thing is probably killing alot more people than we think it is.

[parochial boy]

Google data showing how much people in different countries have been moving around relative to normal (how much they moved on the 13th January). It's funny and you can use it to prove whatever preconceptions you already had - but probably a little bit misleading.

My own conclusions would be: image 1. Italy and France showing that the strictest lockdowns maybe aren't always the most effective. Notice the Germans and the Swiss starting to run out of patience in the April sunshine


image 2 - what was going on in Japan in March?



image 3 - Morocco?

[parochial boy]

Most of those Central European countries have life expectancies that are comparable to the USA (78.9 in the USA, 78.5 in Poland, 79.2 in Czechia, 77.4 in Slovakia, 81.2 in Slovenia) as well as comparably older populations due to the low birth rates and emigration (eg 19% aged over 65 in Slovenia, 19% in Czechia, 17% in Poland compared around 15% in the USA). Romania and Bulgaria have slightly lower life expectancies (about 75) but also are some of the oldest countries in the world.

[parochial boy]

And the big one for Switzerland. All shops, including restaurants as long as table as separated by >2m and no more than 4 people per table, can open again on the 11th of May. Large events remain banned until the end of August.

Cantons have also re-introduced contact tracing, and the tracing phone app is due to be released on the 11th as well. So fingers crossed...

[parochial boy]

Some polling from Switzerland:

How much do you trust the following?

 - The Swiss Federal Council - 79% trust
 - The (Swiss) media - 63% trust
 - The WHO - 50% trust
 - The Italian government - 40% trust
 - The EU - 37% trust
 - China - 14% trust
 - The USA - 8% trust

So, here at least, massive disaster for the reputations of both China and the USA

[parochial boy]

The US is going to be too unreliable for the forseeable future. It is a barely functioning democracy with a collapsing society and a psychotic economic system. Europe should be looking to develop it's own ability to function as an independent economic and geopolitical force, and develop a viable economic alternative to American ultraliberalism.

Can always dream, huh?

[parochial boy]

It's kind of, I wanna say funny, with France that the dividing line between the part of the country coming out of confinement and the part staying in it maps fairly closely to the old St Malo - Geneva line that forms the traditional old divide between clustered villages and open fields (and eventually industrialisation and literacy) against Bocage and isolated settlements (and until the 20th century, rural poverty).

It's probably not as much of a coincidence as it might seem.

[parochial boy]

Back to normal in Austria

https://mobile.twitter.com/marioschoe/status/1256935332194500608?ref_src=twsrc%5...

[parochial boy]

Oh we’ve been importing this delightful new tradition too. In smaller numbers thankfully, and the same assortment of crackpots, conspiracy theory nutcases, and racists whose idea of  « patriotism » appears to be trying to import American politics. Unsurprisingly, protests only happening in German Switzerland. And have been very badly received in the much harder hit French and Italian regions.

Although I probably wouldn’t worry too much about small outdoor gatherings. Even back in March I was seeing groups of people sunbathing or playing football in the parks, or swimming in the river- and cases have dropped dramatically here too. If those sorts of situations are causing some transmission, it’s unlikely it’ll be enough to lose control of like before.

[parochial boy]

Big news - since the beginning, basically everyone in the French speaking world has been calling it "le Covid-19". Today, in their eternal wisdom, the académie française have decreed that it is actually "la Covid-19". Because it's "une" maladie apparently (but it's also "un" virus, and "un" coronavirus).

Nice to see the senile old fogies have once again decided that actually it's not them, it's the French, who are wrong.

[parochial boy]

Big news - since the beginning, basically everyone in the French speaking world has been calling it "le Covid-19". Today, in their eternal wisdom, the académie française have decreed that it is actually "la Covid-19". Because it's "une" maladie apparently (but it's also "un" virus, and "un" coronavirus).

Nice to see the senile old fogies have once again decided that actually it's not them, it's the French, who are wrong.

actually the Covid-19 is une maladie, is not un virus, Corona Virus Disease of 2019

But the word maladie doesn’t feature in the word « covid », it’s an anglicisme. Same as how we say « le weekend » even though it’s « la fin » of « la semaine ». 

They're just inventing rules off the cuff because of their own weird hang-ups - and then being pedantic in a way that doesn’t actually reflect the language as it is actually spoken

[parochial boy]

Switzerland's borders with Austria, France and Germany will in theory be opening again on the 15th of June. Looks like a week in July sitting on a rainy beach in Brittany is back on!

[parochial boy]

Not exactly Berlin 1989, but the fencing that had been put up to separate Kreuzlingen (CH) and Konstanz (DE) was pulled down today. It had become a sort of major tragedy (at least on this side of the border - where it had been called the "barrier of shame") - and a poignant little reminder of just how important Schengen and open borders have become to our way of life. Especially for those of us who live in, or come from, border communities.

Even for people in Thurgau of all places.

[parochial boy]

Oh, the actual closing of the border at the time wasn't particularly controversial - it was a scarier time; and as much as anything else, it was a way of restricting movement and contact. The fact it was also an international border was almost incidental in achieving that, it some ways.

The thing is though, people who live in thosee border metro areas - the Genevas, Basels, Kontanzes; you often start to build their lives on both sides of the border - be it relationships, school, work, leisure or whatever. I mean, me personally, I had friends at school and uni who lived in France, there was a time where I used to cross the border half a dozen times a day just because it shortened my commute. So in that respect, seeing an actual physical barrier go up was quite a big shock for the people who live there. And I think (hope) that it will give people a renewed appreciation of just how precious, and how valuable it is to them on an individual level, having that freedom to move arouns actually is.

The fact that Kreuzlingen, which is not at all a left-wing town, was pushing so hard for to take the fence down, feels encouraging at least.

[parochial boy]

Here at least, China does seem to be winning the propaganda war.

Kantar/Pew poll for the Körber-Stiftung:

More Important for Germany:
Close relationship with USA: 37% (2019:50%)
Close relationship with China: 36% (2019:24%)
Both equally: 13% (2019:18%)

How has your Opinion regarding the following Countries changed since Coronavirus (Better/Worse/Same):
USA: (5%/73%/17%)
China: (25%/36%/32%)
EU: (33%/28%/24%)

The second question is at least in part people having a lower opinion of China to begin with surely?

Although given recent coverage of the US refusal to participate in the global co-operation on vaccines/treatments as well as the trickle of news stories about them wanting priority/exclusivity on any vaccine that is developed, we probably have hit a point where Trump has dumped the reputation of his government below that of China.

[parochial boy]

Credit where credit is due to Merkel and Macron yesterday - a €500 billion fund that the EU itself will borrow; and actual transfers, not loans  to the countries in need. It's still insufficient, full of holes, still has loads of the details to be threshed out, and the little weasel word of "reforms" appears attached to the funding. And its going to have a lot of trouble getting past Kurz/Rutte and the Visegrad group (who of course, never benefit from EU fuding ever do they?) - but even so, it's a little step that could be the start of something, and that's enough to be optimistic about.

[parochial boy]

Big relaxation here as of next Saturday. Among other things, brothels can reopen, although obviously both employees and clients must wear masks for the duration of their appointments. Real serious stuff, but I genuinely can't stop laughing about it.

[parochial boy]

Big relaxation here as of next Saturday. Among other things, brothels can reopen, although obviously both employees and clients must wear masks for the duration of their appointments. Real serious stuff, but I genuinely can't stop laughing about it.

There's plenty of sex positions that don't require close facial contact. Whether the Swiss know about them or not yet is another matter though...

Oh, that sort of stuff is available. The only problem is that on Langstrasse it would cost about the same as the entire GDP of Belgium

[parochial boy]

Randomly in the last month -

Switzerland ca 3'700 cases and 16 deaths - less than 0.5% mortality
Germany ca 13'700 cases and 165 deaths - less than 0.5% mortality
France ca 22'200 cases and 430 deaths - around 2% mortality
Italy ca 7'100 cases and 370 deaths - around 5% mortality
UK ca 19'900 cases and and 2'300 deaths - 11.5% mortality

Britain claims to be doing more testing than any of the other countries, and yet somehow the virus is 20 times deadlier there?

[parochial boy]

I think people just like to use Sweden to prove what they already think - iirc, they, like, well basically everywhere in Europe saw a huge proportion (majority?) of their deaths in care homes. That speaks to a huge political failure in its own right; but it does make me feel reasonably hopeful that now that the situation with PPE has been mostly resolved / people being less dumb about the way care homes are organised (and generally better treatment options becoming available + protective equipment for medical staff + testing being widely available), that an eventual second wave will fall well short of what happened in the spring.

Despite the panics about rising cases - they are still rises that are nowhere near the explosions that happened in March; and places like Portugal seem to give some hope that they can be brought under control.