🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[parochial boy]

You really need to be sceptical of overanalysing turnout reports as they are, at best, an unreliable indicator of what is to come. Just because turn out goes up somewhere, doesn't necessarily mean it's the same kind of voter turning up.

[parochial boy]

Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature. But I do think what those sorts of takes are showing is a change in the narrative towards far-right parties that has started to take place after the relative disappointment of the EU elections. They're obviously still strong; may, or may not, be growing - but the media "establishment" has become a little more sanguine over the threat that they pose. Which is itself is a development that could have its own consequences

[parochial boy]

Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature. But I do think what those sorts of takes are showing is a change in the narrative towards far-right parties that has started to take place after the relative disappointment of the EU elections. They're obviously still strong; may, or may not, be growing - but the media "establishment" has become a little more sanguine over the threat that they pose. Which is itself is a development that could have its own consequences

What concerns me, is that AFD support is still improving despite Migrant Numbers having gone down to pre-crisis levels. Migration should be returning to the prominence it had as an issue until 2014 - but it isnt. We are having big economic problems. Why arent they being talked about?
Not only does it show that people - rightly or wrongly - perceive that integration is not working, also it begs the question: what will happen when a 2015 situation returns? We cannot wish away the fact that with climate change, conflict in the middle east, etc., this will happen again. There will then be a very sinister effect on German politics.

Yeah, I don't have any great take on how things would develop from here. It's the kind of thing that is always going to be tempered as much by what you want to happen as what is actually likely.

I think it's inevitable that unless climate change is brought under control (almost zero chance, lol), one of the effects will be a massive population movement that dwarfs what we saw in 2015. That might help the AfD; but 5-10 more years of today's largely pro-green teenagers starting to vote and AfD's climate denialist stance might work against them; or we just see further and further polarisation. No-one honestly knows - I think the only thing we can say for sure is that no current party is well enough established to be safe from collapse.

[parochial boy]

Good results for FW in both states !

Pretty underwhelming for everyone else really (except for the Greens and FDP in BaWü).

lol at CDU voters wanting to protest vote and finding the most boring way possible to do it

[parochial boy]

In a fit of pedantry, I think the term "Right Liberal" is more appropriate than "European Liberal" for a party like the FDP. Because Europe also has a tradition of Social Liberal parties (cf the Danish ones, the Swiss GreenLiberals - and the Circle of Independents before them), that would also claim the label "liberal" even while being a long, long way ideologically speaking from parties like the two FDPs, the VVD or what LREM has transformed into.

The term "liberal" does fairly universally imply support for capitalism and the market economy - but it isn't entirely true that it universally means "unquestioning opposition to all intervention". In some cases it sort of does, but overall it's a mistake to make out that European Liberalism is somehow assimiable to US libertarianism.

[parochial boy]

In a fit of pedantry, I think the term "Right Liberal" is more appropriate than "European Liberal" for a party like the FDP. Because Europe also has a tradition of Social Liberal parties (cf the Danish ones, the Swiss GreenLiberals - and the Circle of Independents before them), that would also claim the label "liberal" even while being a long, long way ideologically speaking from parties like the two FDPs, the VVD or what LREM has transformed into.

The term "liberal" does fairly universally imply support for capitalism and the market economy - but it isn't entirely true that it universally means "unquestioning opposition to all intervention". In some cases it sort of does, but overall it's a mistake to make out that European Liberalism is somehow assimiable to US libertarianism.

Although I'd add that the FDP and it's predecessor parties always have had a social liberal wing (the DDP to which for instance Theodor Heuß belonged was entirely social liberal), which was more or less influential in the patty's history, with its peak of influence being in the 1970s. Some state parties are still closely associated to this social liberal wing (Rhineland-Palatinate being the primary example). This is something VVD for instance lacks if I am not mistaken (correct me if I'm wrong).

I would agree. Today's FDP (the German one, not the Swiss one) is probably ideologically closer to the Greens than to the VVD. In its current form, it basically offers the following:

Very liberal social policies + business-friendly economic policies/low taxes + selected anti-government policies (e.g., COVID-19).

Its traditional social liberalism may have been temporarily neglected during the Kinkel, Gerhardt and early Westerwelle years. But today, it is once again an essential element of the party.

I mean, a review of their Wahlprogramm indicates they want to cut corporation taxes, raise the income level at which you start paying the top rate of income tax, limit social spending, continue privatising the railway and, absolutely insane given the current circumstances - bring the public debt back under 60% of GDP. In stark contrast to Baerbock, who is open to investment funding deficit spending.

While the FDP may have a "social wing" (even the Swiss one does ftr), the centre of gravity of the party is very definitely on the political right - and to the right of the CDU on topics relating to the economy and the welfare state. That's a big difference, to say, the Green Liberals, who have positioned themselves against privatisations, against tax cuts and in favour of building up the welfare state over the last year or so.

[parochial boy]

I mean, a review of their Wahlprogramm

Which rarely gives one a realistic idea of a party's ideological coordinates.

indicates they want to cut corporation taxes, raise the income level at which you start paying the top rate of income tax, limit social spending, continue privatising the railway and, absolutely insane given the current circumstances - bring the public debt back under 60% of GDP. In stark contrast to Baerbock, who is open to investment funding deficit spending.

This is a minor issue, at least for the Greens. Neither Baerbock nor Habeck are hardliners when it comes to questions of taxation or public spending. It's not why people vote for them and they know it.

While the FDP may have a "social wing" (even the Swiss one does ftr), the centre of gravity of the party is very definitely on the political right

Depends on what you define as 'the right' - the German political debate in the 2010s/2020s revolves almost exclusively around social issues and not around taxation or the welfare state. The latter are considered of secondary importance by almost all parties and also by most voters. It might be that you give too much weight to them?

And when it comes to social issues, the FDP (and especially its your wing, the JuLis) has been in the vanguard on a wide range of matters: same-sex marriage, cannabis legalization, assisted suicide, surrogate motherhood, trans issues, immigration policy... In this sense, the party is indeed much closer to the Greens than to the CDU. And the same is true for the demographic composition of its electorate (younger, more educated, more urban, less religious).

I remember a similar back and forth on Macron in 2017, but being progressive on cultural issues is not enough to make a party left wing. The FDP quite clearly and explicitely sets itself as being in favour of more free markets, less state intervention, a smaller welfare state. A party that takes those lines can not ever be understood as a party of the political left, regardless of its attitude towards trans rights or refugees. And even if they aren't the most emotional topic right now, I dip in and out of following German politics enough to know that things like the Corona debt, or even Hartz IV are topics that get coverage.

In that respect, the FDP as a clearly pro-market party are distinguished not only from the left, but also from the Social Liberal parties that generally do support a stronger welfare state or more interventionist economic policies. And when, for all that the Greens are moderates, their attitude towards those things is very clearly pointing in the opposite direction (Baerbock has talk about "overcoming Hartz IV" even this year, for example).

I mean, I know there is a contextual imperative to downplay this in light of a potential future traffic light coalition - but it doesn't change the fact that a party that supports free markets and a redistribution of wealth in favour of the wealthy is a right wing party.

[parochial boy]

I remember a similar back and forth on Macron in 2017, but being progressive on cultural issues is not enough to make a party left wing.

Well, I didn't call the FDP left-wing. I also wouldn't call the Greens left-wing. All I did was pointing at the various similarities between both parties. And these similarities obviously exist.

The FDP quite clearly and explicitely sets itself as being in favour of more free markets, less state intervention, a smaller welfare state. A party that takes those lines can not ever be understood as a party of the political left, regardless of its attitude towards trans rights or refugees.

Again, I haven't even insinuated that the FDP is left-wing. It seem that you have mistaken my argument?

And not that it matters - but I would indeed claim that a party's position on immigration is today a much better indicator of its ideological core than its position on the welfare state. Your categorization appears a little dogmatic/static in this regard.  

And even if they aren't the most emotional topic right now, I dip in and out of following German politics enough to know that things like the Corona debt, or even Hartz IV are topics that get coverage.

Sure, they get coverage. But I still believe that you greatly overestimate their relative importance. Statista has actually a nice poll of Germany's "most important problems" (change between Spring 2018 and Winter 2020):

Environment/Climate Change: 14% -> 27% (No 1 issue after COVID/Health)
Economy: 3% -> 23% (mostly COVID-related)
Education: 22% -> 22%
Inflation: 10% -> 14%
Unemployment: 8% -> 12% (mostly COVID-related)
Housing: 20% -> 12%
(...)
Pensions: 16% -> 7%
Taxes: 3% -> 3%

People care about the general state of the economy or COVID-induced unemployment, no doubt. But they certainly don't care about lower corporate taxes or the like. If anything, I would even assume that a considerable number of center-left voters would support them if it helps the economy to recover.

I mean, I know there is a contextual imperative to downplay this in light of a potential future traffic light coalition - but it doesn't change the fact that a party that supports free markets and a redistribution of wealth in favour of the wealthy is a right wing party.

Again, I think that's a pretty dogmatic view that I would certainly not agree with. Being 'right-wing' is something different in my books - namely, an anti-egalitarian worldview that necessarily transcends the redistributive dimension.

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Economic positions really don't matter in the German perception of the left-right concept. Right and left are almost fully associated with cultural conservatism or progressivism.

Indeed. In Germany, no one would call a market liberal party a "right-wing" party. It doesn't make any sense.

Generally speaking, my original point was that the FDP on the whole, have a political centre of gravity, and ideological lineage that is to the right of the Social Liberal parties that you find elsewhere in Europe. I used the term right liberal, but if you want to say market liberal, then fine whatever, it's semantics. The point is, was, that using the term "European Liberal" to describe the FDP who, no matter what you think of them are a clearly market oriented party ideogically, is confusing because it either means excluding other European (social) liberal parties from the label - or - it is a label that is so broad that it winds up barely explaining beyond a pretty vague set of generalisations. "European liberal" isn't a good term because there is more to liberalism in Europe than simply "abolish the welfare state and legalise gay marriage". Even if that is a point that many Europeans themselves struggle to comprehend.

And I will note that of the "Most important issues" that you cited - all with the possible exceptions of climate change and education are issues that would probably normally be categorised as "economic" rather than "cultural" ones. And they are all issues where the FDP do stand in a rather different position to the Greens or the SPD.

I'm not really sure why you are so defensive here? I never said they weren't progressive on whatever issues are fashionable today, but no matter how many posters with Christian Lindner in an open necked shirt they come out with, they're still a party that is fundamentally attached to an inegalitarian economic system.

And yes, there is alot to "egalitarianism", but being opposed to massive inequalities of wealth and living standards is pretty much a necessary condition of it.