South African General Election, 2019

[parochial boy]

What’s with the big rise in support for the ANC?

Also, is there even a possibility of the DA gaining power any time soon? I would assume not this election.

Ramaphosa's honeymoon period

And there is absolutely no chance of the DA in their current guise, winning power, for the simple reason that there is really no rational reason for the average black South African to vote for them.

As in, look at the DA's recent history. Under Tony Leon, they became the major opposition party on the catch phrase of "take back control", ie the most obvious dog whistle ever. Helen Zille was basically the incarnation of the apartheid era "madam baas" and left a fairly unpleasant legacy in Cape Town (Blikkiesdorp for instance), which is by all accounts, the most segregated of large South African city. Nowadays, Mmusi Maimane comes across as a major elitist, and is linked to some pretty weird conservative churches.

I would reckon, that if any opposition group is going to emerge in South Africa, it will come out of campaign groups like Abahlali baseMjondolo rather than any of the current crop of abysmal opposition parties.

[parochial boy]

Agang SA probably just pip COPE as the most pathetic party in SA politics tbh.

I wonder if the EFF/DA collaboration at various municipal and provincial levels might be offputting to some of the angry young black men who vote EFF and angry whites who vote DA

[parochial boy]

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The Coloured vote in the Western Cape has been traditionally been anti-ANC since the first democratic elections in 1994 -- as many have since incredulously noted, the key to the NP's victory in the Western Cape province in 1994 was its success with Coloured voters, which it had previously oppressed (but not as much as the blacks, which may explain matters). Since Patricia de Lille's Independent Democrats (ID), which snatched a good chunk of the Coloured vote in the WC in the past, and the weakening of the ANC in the WC since 2004, the urban Coloured vote in Cape Town has become nearly as monolithically DA as the white vote, with over 85% of the vote in Mitchell's Plain. The Coloured vote in Port Elizabeth now appear to vote much the same, as do the Coloured neighbourhoods in Gauteng or KZN. On the other hand, the Coloured vote in small towns and rural areas in the former Cape province are not voting DA at the same levels as Coloured townships in urban areas are -- the most obvious example of this would be the entire Northern Cape province, which is 40% Coloured, but only voted 23.4% DA in the 2014 national elections (or, at a more micro level, Central Karoo DM in the WC which is three-quarters Coloured but narrowly voted ANC in 2014). It may be worth pointing out that, in 1994, the NP won nearly 50% of the vote in the NC.

Just a comment here - the demographics of Northern Cape have also changed significantly since 1994, with a large increase in the black population and corresponding decline in the white and Coloured populations, largely due to internal migration; Northern Cape is now majority black by a significant margin but was easily majority Coloured in 1994. It is clear that the NP did better with Coloured voters in 1994 than the DA did in 2014, but there have been other changes as well.

That is to a huge degree specifically around Kimberley/the Frances Baard and John Taolo Gaetsewe DC's, which are a bit more developed, have some mining industry etc... The rest of the Northern Cape is still overwhelmingly coloured, and to back up Hash's point, a lot of those very remote West Coast/Kalahari coloured communities are still voting ANC, more so than they were in 1994.

Going a bit further on the "urban Coloureds vote DA, and rural ones tend to vote ANC" theme, it is worth pointing out that Cape Town is (probably) now plurality black. Primarily thanks to Xhosa immigration from the Eastern Cape, which has created a lot of resentment among the Cape Town Coloured community who used to benefit somewhat from the Xhosa being banned from the Western Cape during apartheid + lingering sentiment that the ANC is a specifically black party. It seems like you get a bit of that in other parts of the Western Cape that have seen immigration from the Eastern Cape, eg Garden route towns like Knysna, where the ANC vote is basically the same as the black % of the population, implying Coloureds vote massively DA.

Anyway, the fact that, in this the year 2018; Mitchell's Plain, Camps Bay and Durbanville all vote equally homogeneously for the same party is one of the more amusing realities of contemporary South Africa.

[parochial boy]

Anyway, the fact that, in this the year 2018; Mitchell's Plain, Camps Bay and Durbanville all vote equally homogeneously for the same party is one of the more amusing realities of contemporary South Africa.

Could you explain that for those of us unfamiliar with these places?

Mitchell's Plain - Coloured township in the Cape Flats (the east of the city, where Cape Town's non-whites were expelled to during the apartheid era), poor and was a hotbed of opposition to the apartheid regime

Camps Bay - mega, mega rich suburb on the Atlantic coast; predominantely English speaking and the kind of place that used to support the PFP/DP opposition parties during apartheid

Durbanville - humdrum suburb in the north of the city; very white and Afrikaans speaking, in short the kind of place that used to vote heavily for the National Party pre-1994

[parochial boy]

Somewhat OT:

1) I understand which areas tended to vote PFP/DP (urban, Anglo, affluent liberals/progressives). Which areas/demographics switched to KP vs stuck with the Nats?

2) Are there any good maps of Apartheid era election results? The only stuff I can find is of the referendum.

I stumbled across this map of the 1981 election once (and I'm pretty sure Hash made it, so hopefully he can come in and take some well deserved credit because there seems to be very little out there in the way of apartheid era constituency results).

Anyway, the patterns seems obvious - PFP picking up seats in the rich/anglo atlantic seabord and southern suburbs of Cape Town and Jo'burg (notable concentration around Sandton) and also picking up seats in the Anglo heartland of Natal (but not Umhlanga, which is the uber rich suburb north of Durban) and getting one in Port Elizabeth (whose white population is predominently anglophone). The win in Grahamstown is undoubtedly due to Rhodes University.

(Also funny to see the New Republic Party - heir of the United Party which had collapsed into being an exclusively english speaking party - only winning seats in Natal).

I couldn't find much about 1987 though, but by the looks of things, the Conservative Party only won seats in the Transvaal (Afrikanerdom, but so was the Orange Free State). They also, surprisingly, didn't only win in rural areas - but also in the Rand, in seats like Roodeport and Randfontein which are heavily Afrikaner, but urban/suburban in nature and in the modern province of Gauteng. By the looks of it, most CP wins were incumbent MPs who had defected from the Nats, which is probably the "key" as far as which areas voted for the party.

[parochial boy]

That is a great map. Would love to see something similar for other elections, but I of course realize that such a map takes a lot of effort to make.

The leader of the KP, Andries Treurnicht, was the Transvaal leader of the NP prior to his defection. So I think that is another explanation why the party performed the best there. If I am not mistaken, it did however pick up seats in the Orange Free State in the 1989 election, and performed impressively in some parts of what is today the Northern Cape.

Have you ever seen detailed results for other elections? Finding data is pretty tricky, the best I have come across are old Mail and Guardian articles reporting the results.

By the looks of it, 1989 results seem similar to 81 and 87 with CP picking up/going close in a lot of industrial and mining or agricultural seats in the areas you mentioned (eg losing in the industrial/mining town of Vereeniging by just 5 votes); and also progressing in Afrikaner heavy urban or suburban areas around Pretoria and in the West Rand. So essentially a rural and working class Afrikaner vote.

The DP seemed to pick up a lot in the cities - in particular the anglophone heavy East Rand/East Jo'burg (which isn't typically quite as rich as the northern suburbs), and around Durban - as well as in the Cape Winelands and outer Cape Town (which is Afrikaner, but not so much "Boer"), and in smaller English speaking towns like East London and Pietermaritzburg.

[parochial boy]

ex DA mayor of Cape Town, Patricia De Lille has set up a new party, called "Good", which I'm sure will be highly relevant next year...

[parochial boy]

here is an opinion poll from the South African Insititute of Race Relations.

Toplines aren't anything new - ANC gaining slightly up to 56%, DA dropping a fair amount to 18%, EFF  on 11% and everyone else irrelevant.

What is interesting though, is looking at the racial breakdowns. Black voters go:

ANC - 69% (+6% compared to September)
DA - 6% (-4%)
EFF - 14% (-2%)

and minority voters (ie whites, coloureds and Indians together) go
ANC - 12% (-2%)
DA - 61% (-10%)
EFF - 0% (-1%)

Which all suggests a few things -
With black voters, there seems to be some return of previously disillusioned ANC supporters in support of Ramaphosa. There is a line of thought that an increase in the ANC's vote on the 2016 municipals score could strengthen Ramaphosa at the expense of Zuma's faction, who would use a poor result to attack the current president.

With non-black voters, the big drop in support for the three big parties is probably a lot to do with Patricia De Lille's new party; which is hypothetically around 4% and should do especially well with Coloured voters who might otherwise have supported the DA. There is still a fairly reasonable level of support for the ANC among non-white voters, presumably mostly Coloureds living in rural areas (eg the ANC are still the largest party in predominantely coloured parts of the Northern Cape) and Indians (the ANC recently won a municipal by-election in the formerly Indian township of Chatsworth in Durban).

If you assume the White ANC vote is virtually zero, you potentially have around 20% support among Coloureds and Indians.

[parochial boy]

ex DA mayor of Cape Town, Patricia De Lille has set up a new party, called "Good", which I'm sure will be highly relevant next year...

This "Good" movement s seems to be a centrist populist thing, something like the continuation of De LLille's Independent Democrats... isn't it?

Patricia de Lille
@PatriciaDeLille
Started a new movement called @forgoodza
. Activist for GOOD people who believe in a GOOD South Africa

I think I fell in love...


"

Yeah, I wouldn't say she is great by any stretch - but definitely better than most of her old colleagues in the rest of the Cape Town DA. One of the few people who even tried to do something about the extremes of evictions and spatial apartheid in Cape Town (and she is like the second most popular politician in the country after Ramaphosa).

As far as I can tell, the new party hasn't really come up with any policies yet. It will undoubtedly end up as some sort of vehicle to represent coloured people's grievances. Which, given how badly the DA has treated them, and how much it has taken them for granted, is hardly a bad thing.

[parochial boy]

Under FPTP that would be a disaster, but since they have PR, some competition for the non-black vote will be a good thing. Can't have politicians thinking they own your vote. Now we just need some more effective competition for ANC's vote than Malema.

The current factional battle in the ANC seems to oppose a nationalist-nativist Zuma wing (ie, similar to the EFF) and a Liberal Ramaphosa wing (ie like the DA). So my worry as an unabashed leftist is that South African politics eventually winds up as the EFF v the DA (presuming various splits in the ANC in the future). Not to dissimilar to the current situation in a lot of the countries which democratise in the 1990s if you want some #analysis.

In any case, the reason that ANC still does so well with black voters, is not just down to it's liberation credentials; but also down to the fact that it has built a welfare state that has left a lot of people materialy much better off than they were back in 94. So it is a transactional vote in that respect (as one white South African put it to me, "they're gonna carry on voting ANC because the ANC built them houses", which isn't exactly a bad reason to vote for someone imho...).

As for FPTP v PR, I'm not entirely sure it would make that much difference. I mean, the defining story of South African politics is racial voting; and the definining story of South African society is intense reidential segregation between racial groups - for obvious reasons. So I don't think the DA would lose alot under FPTP.

Like, if you look at the 2016 municipals; in eThekwini, the DA got 26% of the vote and won 30 out of 110 wards. Essentially, they won the historically "white" areas (excluding the city centre/golden mile, which seen a huge demographic change since 1994); as well as the old Indian townships (even despite there still being a relic of the old Minority Front vote around there).

In Cape Town, I think De Lille splitting the coloured vote would only potentially matter in some of the more racially mixed, newer, far flung townships like Delft and Blue Downs; and maybe some of the mixed gentrifying areas like Woodstock. The ANC are basically irrelevant in the older Cape Flats townships.

[parochial boy]

Another point re-the coloured vote is a couple of the events surrounding the end of apartheid that had a pretty major impact that is still relevant today:

The ANC made a pretty major tactical blunder in disbanding the United Democratic Front. In contrast to the educated-elitist and overwhelmingly African ANC leadership, the UDF had been a grassroots effort that drew its support from both Black and Coloured townships. So disbanding it made the ANC look like an Africanist outfit, despite being avowedly non-racial at the time, which was offputting to Coloured voters worrying about their future in the country.

Add to that, by 1994, immigration from the Eastern Cape had already started in earnest (as the Group Areas Act had been abolished in 1991) - and new townships like Khayelitsha had already sprouted in the Easter edges of Cape Town. The National Party pounced on this, and Coloured fears of losing their relative position under majority rule, by running, well, an explicitely racist campaign designed to scare Coloured voters into voting for them. For example, they sent an alarmist pamphlet out to coloured voters including the infamous line accusing the ANC of wanting to "Kill a farmer, kill a coloured" (taken from the more well known "shoot the boer" song). The pamphlet was actually eventually banned for breaking election rules, but the NP's campaign succeeded in putting off Coloured voters from the ANC.

Obviously, the ANC's more recent Africanist turns under Zuma has only contributed to that feeling, as do sentiments that Coloureds lose out from BEE and so on and so forth... It's probably not entirely unfair to suggest that Coloureds have been the group who have struggled the most in the post-apartheid era. Well educated whites have benefited from SA's reintegration into the global economy; Black people's lives have materially improved; albeit from a very low base; and Indians have generally prospered as they tend to be well educated and were clearly held back by the apartheid regime.

And another point on a different subject - Dan Plato and the DA's reaction to the whole scandal surrounding Clifton beach is yet another good example of the fact that they just don't really understand black people.

[parochial boy]

Indians support the DA and even supported the national party in south africa's first election right? Any reason why they were averse to the ANC?

Predominantly the DA, but it's actually a fairly mixed picture - there has traditionally been a lot of support for the ANC, and the Indians used to have their own party in Amichand Rajbansi's "Minority Front" (which won substantial levels of the Indian vote - but never actually a majority of it). The MF vote had also collapsed, mostly into the DA, before Rajbansi passed away a couple of years ago.

The vast majority of Indians live in KwaZulu-Natal, especially around Durban and the Natal coast, where they were brought as indentured labourers by the English to work on sugar plantations, which means that the best places to look at the Indian vote are the Durban Indian townships of Chatsworth (south of the city centre) and Phoenix (to the north). Back in 2016, both went pretty solidly DA, but less so than white areas, except for a couple of wards won by Independents who were ex-Minority Front members. As mentioned earlier, the ANC actually won a by-election in Chatsworth back in October, partly this is demographic changes, but it does show that the ANC can still win substantial levels of support among Indian South Africans.

Adding to that, the Indian vote has had a traditionally quite pronounced class gap. Wealthier Indians have traditionally been more likely to support the ANC, thanks to its liberation credentials; and there have been a number of very senior Indian ANC politicians, most notably Pravin Gordhan; and Zuma's, um, controversial "allies" the Gupta family are also Indian South African.

Poorer Indians have traditionally been more inclined to vote for opposition parties - for reasons that are not too dissimilar to Coloureds; fear of the relative loss of status to the black masses / competition for jobs and privileges and resentment of demographic changes in formerly Indian townships as well as concerns about the ANC's African nationalist turn under Zuma (which explains why they were willing to return to Ramaphosa). There can be a fair amount of tension between Indians and blacks - one of the most straight out racist things I have ever heard in South Africa was an Indian taxi driver who claimed that "the only thing the blacks know how to do is rape and kill"...

[parochial boy]

If it smells like bulls**t it probably is buls**t, but...



Poll done by the "Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC)" based on face-to-face interviews.

If true, it would seem to indicate that the DA's various scandals and Maimane's attempts to triangulate between the liberals and the soft-social-democrats and the various demographic groups who make up the DA's electoral coalition isn't really working.

EFF number looks like fiction though tbh

[parochial boy]

Some highlight's from the DA's manifesto, for posterity:

 - No expropration without compensation
 - Privatise electricity and South Afrcan Airways
 - "Allow" employees to opt out of the minimum wage
 - Make it easier to lay off employees
 - Restrictions on the right for Trade Unions to call strikes, and holding Unions legally responsible for damage
 - Opposition to public, universal healthcare
 - A lot of words, but very little concrete policy, on race relations

[parochial boy]

What's the political fallout from the seizing of land from Anglo South Africans ?

It's not really English speakers who are being affected by the proposed land expropriation. Anglos are more concentrated in the big cities. There are some English farmers, primarily in the old Albany region in the Eastern Cape and in KwaZulu-Natal; but overwhelmingly it's Afrikaner farmers.

As for any fallout, well, everyone is going to vote for whoever they were going to vote for anyway. The DA are going to drop in support, primarily because Ramaphosa isn't Zuma - so a lot of the "new black middle class" types who they won in 2014/16 will likely go back to the ANC; but also because the DA has had it's own scandals involving the mismanagement of the water crisis in the Western Cape, and a series of resignations involving accusations of bullying and racism within the party.

Really, the whole land expropriation issue being at the top of the agenda is the fallout of Ramaphosa replacing Zuma at the top of the ANC. It's a consequence, not a cause. There is a line of theory that goes that the pro-business-liberal Ramaphosa needede to endorse the policy to keep the Zuma wing and Zuma's voters on board. The ANC is currently waging something of an internal factionalist war between the Ramaphosa "centrist" wing and the Zuma "radical nationalist" one. If (and that is if) EFF do well, it is probably down to precisely a loss of nationalist voters away from the ANC.

Well, other than "no expropiation without compensation" and maybe the making layoffs easier (depends on South Africa's laws) that seems like a very right wing manifesto.

Will it hurt the DA?

Unilkely tbh, no-one votes on policies in South Africa. The ANC will campaign on the same "hope and change" message, for, like, the 6th time in a row. Except this time, there's no Zuma so it's got to work right?

And the DA will campaign on how terrible the ANC are, while staying very quiet about what they would do that would be any better.

[parochial boy]

How did that party get any support from colors especially considering their main identity and history; additionally, aren't the DA the main party for colors (tbh, not really informed so I'm open to being given a quick lesson about this)?

I think it's worth relativising it a bit. VF+ will in all likelihood, make some pretty decent gains this year. But even if we assume that they get up to 1.5% of the vote, and that a solid third of their electorate is Coloured - we'd still only be talking about them winning 4-5% of the Coloured vote.

As for why they are getting support, based on that video, it is mainly down to the same concerns that have most Coloureds voting for the DA already - fears about rising crime; their displacement by, largely Xhosa, migrants from traditional "coloured" spaces; loss of the old era relative privileges and feelings of having been the main losers of the contemporary political landscape.

With the VF+ in particular, they have toned down a lot of the "Boer" nationalism of the early democratic years. They hardly even talk about the "Volkstaat" any more, and even now, it is these days generally posited as an autonomous 10th province - not the radical independent or quasi-independent bantustan that was touted in back in 1994. (It's worth pointing out that the area that this 10th province should take up is actually already majority Coloured and Afrikaans speaking).

They have also become more and more of a catch all party sticking up for "minority rights" and the like, which has meant rhetorically moving beyond the pure Boer nationalism; as well as being something of an anti-DA protest vote, as some people tend to think the Maimane-led DA is a bit too anti-white (eg, accepting that "white privilege" may be a thing...).

Beyond that, there has also been something of an effort in the last couple of decades to turn "Afrikaner" identity into something more broadly based on the Afrikaans language, rather than specifically based on Whiteness. So, as Coloureds are Afrikaans speakers (mostly) too, the modern conception of Afrikaner nationalism sort of has to include them. Arguably, this is also compounded by the fact that there is a general class divide within Coloured communities, whereby wealthier ones tend to speak English; while poorer ones, those who are most affected by crime/poverty/the "pain" of relative loss of privilege and therefore probably more inclined to vote for a more radical party like VF+, tend to speak Afrikaans. (Also,note that there have always been currents of this in the Afrikaner nationalist ideology that are more inclusive of a language based nationalism that includes Coloureds, even back in the 1940s, Nicolaas Havenga was seen as a "moderate" for wanting to include Coloureds within the wider Afrikaner umbrella).

[parochial boy]

This is just a week away tomorroy, and we have a bit of a Shock Poll from the South African Institute of Race Relations has the ANC dropping below 50% (with 5% undecided/refusing to answer/won't vote....)

ANC - 49.5%
DA - 21.3%
EFF - 14.9%
IFP - 3%
VF+ - 1.8%
ACDP - 1.6%

everyone else under 1%, Patricia De Lille's party stuggling on just 0.2%.

Although the ANC have had a pretty terrible campaign (eg managing to create an outrage by including a load of people implicated in various state capture / corruption scandals on their party lists) which has killed the Ramaphosa honeymoon, this is probably worth taking with a pinch of salt. The IRR always show low numbers for the ANC, and as an organisation have a very clear ideologically liberal tilt. It's also not entirely in line with municipal by election results, which often, but not always show the ANC losing by small, or large amounts. But by elections have miniscule turnouts and protest votes, so...

Also looks like a huge result for VF+, even with anglos and coloureds supporting the party, that's still like 25% or more of the Afrikaner vote, which seems high.

crosstabs by race, for fun:

Blacks:

ANC - 61.6%
DA - 7.4%
EFF - 18.7%

Whites:
ANC - 4.3%
DA - 68.6%
EFF - 0.8% (wtf, I really want to meet some of these people)

Coloureds:
ANC - 10.9%
DA - 68.5%
EFF - 4.7%

Indians:
ANC - 12.6%
DA - 60.4%
EFF - 0.0%

[parochial boy]

I figured two people given the sample size, so one made a mistake and the other was trolling

I have actually come across a couple of articles about white EFF voters, one was a gay communist student union leader, and the others were some very pissed of people in a squatter camp. So we ain't exactly talking mainstream opinions here...

[parochial boy]

This is tomorrow! Polls close at 22.00 South African time, which is 22.00 CET / 16.00 Eastern US.

Final polls out today from the IRR suggest the ANC heading towards 53%, with the DA on 24% and EFF on 14% . While IPSOS have ANC on 65%, DA on 17-18% and EFF on 10-11%. (last time round it was ANC 61%, DA 22%, EFF 6%). So no-one has a friggin clue, essentially.

An EFF surge at the expense of the ANC would probably be taken as a bad sign for Ramaphosa, and would consequentially probably strengthen the Zuma-populist-nationalist wing in the party, who would point to the EFF winning that sort of voter (which would be, well, a little unfair as any ANC losses would definitely not be down to the absence of Zuma at the head of the party...)

Also worth watching the DA score. Maimane has come under a lot of criticism from the membership, especially when compared to his predecessor Zille. He is seen as having failed to reach out to new (black middle class) voters, and is off putting to a lot of the DA's vote as being a little bit too left wing (and too black...). Although in all fairness, he does have a hard time triangulating between the kind of rhetoric that would appear to the DA's existing constituencies and to the ones it needs to gain to ever stand a chance of winning power. All things considered, failing to progress on 2014 would be a bad result for the party, given how tarnished the ANC is. And the "at least Zuma is gone" factor / Ramaphosa's relatively better reputation won't be an excuse.

Also watch out for the results in Gauteng. The IRR poll has ANC dropping to 45% there, so the DA might have hopes of being able to cobble together a coalition to govern the province. Gauteng is home to about a quarter of the population, and generates about 40% of South Africa's GDP - so would be a huge win in terms of establishing themselves as a potential party of government.

[parochial boy]

What sort of coalition would the DA be able to form in Gauteng? I imagine DA-EFF is not viable at all, is it? I'd expect some sort of ANC minority?

Well Malema viscerally hates the ANC too - and there is a some history of DA-EFF collaboration at the municipal level (generally not formal coalitions, and happening less and less of the las couple of years, but opposition makes strange bedfellows I guess). So the DA might hope to cobble something together with the minor parties and then convince the EFF not bring them down - which is basically the current situation with Herman Mashaba in Johannesburg.

[parochial boy]

Will we get results tonight? What time do polls close?

Apparently first results expected to come in at 11pm SA time, but very little likely to come through before 3am and most results coming through around 11am.

So don't expect much this evening

[parochial boy]

And results, when they do come, should come here

https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html

[parochial boy]

The Daily Maverick is tracking results at the ward level compared to 2014. They're currently projecting final results of ANC - 56%; DA - 21%; EFF -11%. And they have ANC dropping to 49.5% in Gauteng.

Just eyeballing the map, lots of Western/Northern which is obviously inflating the DA numbers; and lots missing from the former homelands in KZN, Eastern Cape and Limpopo. But at the same time, not much in from the big cities - which means the DA shouldn't drop too much. I think VF+ will drop quite a bit as there heartland of small Afrikaner towns tend to be among the quickest to come in.

It looks very dissapointing for the DA in Gauteng so far; but most of what has come in is from the outer suburbs - which will overstate both the ANC and VF+ whereas you'd figure that DA and EFF will both gain.

Also nice to see the unashamed racists of BLFL completely crashing

[parochial boy]

Results from Orania

Party      Votes   % Support
VF PLUS   447       79,39%
DA            62       11,01%
EFF           21        3,73%
FN            12        2,13%

I would love to meet the 21 EFF voters in Orania!

[parochial boy]

The Daily Maverick is tracking results at the ward level compared to 2014. They're currently projecting final results of ANC - 46%; DA - 21%; EFF -11%. And they have ANC dropping to 49.5% in Gauteng.

Just eyeballing the map, lots of Western/Northern which is obviously inflating the DA numbers; and lots missing from the former homelands in KZN, Eastern Cape and Limpopo. But at the same time, not much in from the big cities - which means the DA shouldn't drop too much. I think VF+ will drop quite a bit as there heartland of small Afrikaner towns tend to be among the quickest to come in.

It looks very dissapointing for the DA in Gauteng so far; but most of what has come in is from the outer suburbs - which will overstate both the ANC and VF+ whereas you'd figure that DA and EFF will both gain.

Also nice to see the unashamed racists of BLFL completely crashing

Those numbers for big 3 add to 78% so should it be ANC 56%?

Yep, my mistake. Latest projection is now ANC 56.5% and EFF on 10.5%; and ANC just shading over 50% in Gauteng; which would seem to be quite a good result there relative to 2014