The African Population Boom of the 21st Century (user search)
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  The African Population Boom of the 21st Century (search mode)
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Author Topic: The African Population Boom of the 21st Century  (Read 7238 times)
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,133


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

« on: May 07, 2018, 05:23:59 AM »
« edited: May 07, 2018, 05:27:36 AM by parochial boy »

Seems like it's more Africa's problem than mine.  Have they considered trying a better economy, that seems to stop population growth better than anything.


That's more or less precisely why these population predictions are ridiculous, the reason Africa's population is growing quickly at the moment is because economic growth has led to a huge reduction in infant mortality rates.

Unless Africans are somehow unique, fertility rates will drop to match this, as has happened everywhere else in the world (and is already beginning to happen in Africa - for example, Ghana's fertility rate has already dropped from 6 children per woman in the 1980s to 4 in the 2010s; and Ethiopia's has dropped from 7 in the 1990s to 4 nowadays).
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parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,133


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2018, 06:43:06 AM »

Growth rates in Africa aren't increasing because of fertility rates, it is a combination of declining death rates + declining infant moratility + the first generation of children not to suffer from high infant moratility reaching child bearing ages. Fertility rates are a lagging factor, so tend to drop after the fall in death rates.

And suggesting that Africans all want to have 10 kids doesnt stack up. If you look at wealthier African countries like Botswana (2.8 children per woman); South Africa (2.3); Namibia (3.5); and look at the dramataic decline in places like Kenya or Ghana you can already see that Africans are just like the rest of the world, they start having less kids as they get older
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