November 2018: New Caledonia independence referendum

[parochial boy]

Adding a bit to this, the reason it has taken so long to get this referendum set up and agreed has been to do with the massive level of contestation about precisely who is a legible voter.

At the time of the Nouméa accords, the agreement was that only people living in New Caledonia at the time of the accord in 1994 would have the right the vote in the independence referendum (as well as people born in New Caledonia aftewards and a few other bits and bobs). This is important because New Caledonia has experienced quite a significant level of demographic change since 1994 (as noted, the Kanaks are no longer a majority on the islands).

The referendum will therefore be based on what is called the "Special" electoral register (as opposed to the full register used in presidential elections and the like), which is the register of all those voters who meet the registration requirements to vote in the independence referendum.

Contestation over the referendum has been responsible for the delay, in particular as the Kanak population believed that a number of Kanak people had been unfairly excluded (a fact backed up by census data). In all, the pro-independence parties thought that 22,000 legitimate voters had been excluded - and, after negotiations, an agreement to add 11,000 people was agreed between the pro and anti independence camps; giving the final green light for the vote.

I would add that as support for independence is very ethnically aligned, and the white "Caldoche" population, as well as the Asian and Wallis and Futunuan populations on the islands are all heavily opposed to independence - there is probably little chance of a substantial change in voting intentions.

The cited poll above doesn't have explicit ethnic cross tabs - but to give an indication of the situation, support for independence in the heavily Kanak north of the island is 42%, but only 18% in the whiter and more urban South. Likewise, voters aligned to a tribe (ie more rural Kanak voters) support independence by a 48% to 20% margin; while voters in the rest of the New Caledonia are opposed by 64% to 17%

click

[parochial boy]

From a financial standpoint though, there is a hell of a good reason as to why the DROM-COM would want to stay in France - not so clear cut with Catalonia though

[parochial boy]

Reviving this because we now have a date - the 4th of November, and a question - « Voulez-vous que la Nouvelle-Calédonie accède à la pleine souveraineté et devienne indépendante ? » "(do you want New Caledonia to gain full sovereignty and become independent?").

I don't like that question, putting in both the words sovereignty and independence seems unecessarily confusing-

[parochial boy]

Updating this with a couple of new polls which confirm that this has absolutely no chance of passing:

i-Scope (local pollster) had
Yes - 28%
No - 63%

Kantar had 69-75% against independence.

Amongst Kanak voters,  (people with the right to vote in this referendum), there is a broad level of support, but not overwhelmingly so, for independence. I-Scope had 47% of Kanaks intending to vote yes, aainst 29% intending to vote no. Support for independence amongst non-kanaks is, unsurprisingly, close to zero).

[parochial boy]

Yeah, it looks like a majority wants to remain part of France. Which, as pointed out, they have good financial incentives to. This is far from an ideal situation obviously, but it's understandable.

The problem is the majority of the indigenous population doesn't want to, and they naturally feel it's rightfully "their country".

Well the Caldoches/Calédoniens feel the same way, and bear in mind that for the most part they have been on the islands for as long as the New Zealanders have been in New Zealand - and that a large portion of the population is mixed race, and those people tend to align more with the Caldoches and oppose independence.

Tbh, the referendum is kind of weighted in favour of the Kanaks as much as it could be while still claiming to be a legitimate democratic exercise. Any immirgrants since 1994 have been disenfranchised, and they (largely Asians, Wallis and Futunuans and métrolpolitains/Zoreils) would be hugely opposed to independence, but still can't vote even if they have been their for virtually their entire lives.

Whats interesting is that the Caldoches are so unanimously opposed to independence. They have been around long enough to, and by all accounts have, developed a separate sense of nationhood that is apart from the French. But at the same time they still overwhelmingly identify as French at the end of the day, which has possibly developed out of an opposition to the specifically ethnic characteristic of Kanak nationalism? I dunno, would need

(realise this probably seems a little bit "pro-French", which it isn't intended to be. It's worth remembering that over 30% of the population is neither white nor indigenous)

[parochial boy]

Less than a week away now, and to add a bit of context. La Croix have some cool infographics about demographics and the like - so you can see the major divide between the North province, which is over 70% Kanak, and the South, where they only make up 25%.

They reckon the 7% of people who identify as "calédonien" is testament to a growing degree of specifically "calédonien" nationalism (as opposed to Kanak nationalism). Considering which parts of the country, and which people exactly tend to vote for "Calédonie ensemble", the party most closely associated with that identity; I suspect that the "calédoniens" are going to be very disproportionately white.

Beyond that, most of the media are reporting the campaign has been pretty quiet. The Labour party, a far-left independentist party, have called for a boycott. But they aren't especially relevant.

[parochial boy]

Final result:

No - 56.9%
Yes - 43.1%

Map below is basically a mirror image of ethnicity



Overall, much closer than expected - in part thanks to a decent mobilisation of Kanak voters.

FLNKS have said they want to push on with the other two votes specified in the Nouméa accords, but the loyalist parties will try and block them, which could be interesting - especially as this vote was quite peaceful, a more controversial vote in the future might be... less so.

As posted on AAD, a future majority for independence in New Caledonia could conceivably be possible.

New Caledonia is not Réunion or Mayotte. Thanks to its nickel wealth, it has a much stronger internal economy and prospects than most other DROM-COM - and is less reliant on French financial aid. Add to that, a lot of the biggest internal issues on the caillou are almost a direct result of French "aid" ie the huge cost of living thanks to France being the main trade partner (so imported goods are very expensive), as opposed to its immediate neighbours; and the 50% salary bump for fonctionnaires (civil servants= because of the "hardship" of living in NC. And there isn't any reason for the asians and polynesians to have much emotional attachment to France, and even the caldoches have their own national identity of a sort.

Of course, that would require a national identity that isn't exclusively Kanak - which given NC's history (ie intense racism and institutional exclusion of Kanaks up to the 1980s) is pretty massively unlikely

[parochial boy]

Final result:

No - 56.9%
Yes - 43.1%

Map below is basically a mirror image of ethnicity

Fixed

d'oh, lol. Just a minor mistake

[parochial boy]

Bumping this because (a week ago) the date of the second attempt was confirmed as the 4th of October. It had been scheduled for 6 September, but was pushed back by a month because of the Corona crisis. Same question as before, and same restrictions on who can vote (ie, not people who migrated post Nouméa accords).

The context at the moment is mounting tensions between camps. Among the loyalist camp, the more moderate Philippe Gomès was replaced by Sonia Backès's more hardline "Avenir en confiance" list at the head of the (whiter) South Province. On the other hand, the independentists have been outraged at the reaction to the Corona crisis itself, claiming that the lockdown was designed to demonstrate the caillou's dependence on the French state; all the more so given how NC has largely escaped a major outbreak (just 20 cases and no deaths). That said, the Kanaky community were absolutely ravaged by Spanish Flu, and that remains a fairly vivid memory among them and other Pacific peoples.

Added to that, the looming economic crisis is looking to be especially hard, given its economic reliance on nickel exports, with prices and demand taking a plunge in the early months of the year. All of which serves to outline how much of a monoculture, and structurally weak, the caillou's economy actually is.

[parochial boy]

Could someone update the thread title? It's only three weeks away, so getting close.

No polling at all this time, but from what it seems, the campaign is a lot more tense than last time around. As alluded too, the pro-French side in particular seems to have radicalised. In particular, there have been accusations of the French authorities of not being appropriately neutral - in contrast to last time, French national symbols are being allowed to be used in the campaign; and there is a fear over the potential closure of a nickel plant. The context being is that the territories nickel wealth differentiates it from the other DROM-COMs, generally making it far more self sufficient economically.

[parochial boy]

Lots of Nouméa still to come, so looks safe for the No vote. Seems like there was a much higher participation today, there was a boycott from some far left Kanak parties left time, but seemingly also a bit more enthusiasm this time round.

It does raise an interesting dilemma though; in theory there should be one last referendum between now and 2022. It will very probably also be rejected, but, you do get the feeling that 10 or 20 years down the line there might actually be a majority for independence.

Right now the Caldoches and other non-kanaks are overwhelmingly opposed to independence. But, there is a definite Calédonien identity that is separate from a French national identity that is present. A bit more time, and better ethnic relations (if that is even possible, ha), and you probably would have NC choosing to go it alone.

[parochial boy]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...