2016, The Year of Enigmas - Yet Another 2016 TL

[Bigby]

Note: Unless you guys would prefer me not to, I will still continue my 2004 Tom Harkin TL while writing this one. I will do both concurrently, but one or the other may get more views depending on which stirs more interest. I got this idea while posting in the random maps thread for primary contests. I was wondering what weird events and changes would cause the maps, so I was encouraged to make this TL. I will start in January of 2016 after giving a brief synopsis of everything beforehand. Due to my busy college load this week and weekend, expect an update to either TL to not be ready until next Thursday, although I may try to give you guys a treat and update anyway, even if it's a small one.

Major Non-Presidential Election Events of September - December 2015:

- During September, the Senate blocks Obama's Iran Deal 58 - 42, with the Republicans unanimous and 4 Democrats joining them. However, this falls short of a veto and filibuster, so the deal gets passed anyway. Public opinion of the deal remains overwhelmingly negative despite rising to approval levels in the 30's. No nukings occur in the Middle East, but Israel is rumored to have increased its stockpile. Saudi Arabia has also been rumored to develop a nuclear program in response to Iran. While inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities have all been shown to be clean, few in the public believe them since the fact that Iran is permitted to conduct its own inspections of its own nuclear program is reiterated constantly in the news. No major incidents have occurred, but Israel, the United States, and the Sunni states in the Middle East are on edge.
- Outside of Iran, the Middle East continues to be a hotbed of rebellion and strife. Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, is captured by the Shiite Revolutionary Committee. The Hadi government of Yemen was weakened after nearly wiping out AQAP forces, but had spread itself then and became subject to Shia rebel onslaught. Although the Shia rebels control the capital, the Hadi government still controls much of eastern Yemen. Civil war continues in Syria with neither side gaining an advantage, though Damascus has been constantly claimed by Syrian rebels, Assad's forces, and the Islamic State repeatedly as of October. Pro-Assad forces are the current holders of the city by New Year's Eve. ISIS and Kurd forces have both entered Turkey, causing President Erdogan to declare martial law. Turkish forces have kept ISIS and the Kurds confined and pitted against each other east of the Euphrates River, but the Turkish nation has began to face social unrest and economic recession.
- The stock market and the Chinese economy have been going up and down almost randomly during the fall and winter. September, November, and most of December were low points while October and the first ten business days of December were high points. The Chinese Yuan was slightly stronger at the end of 2015 than it was in August and September, but the Dow closed Christmas week at 15,000, lower than any other point in the year. In the US, unemployment hovers around 6.5% while underemployment soared to 20% before shrinking to 18% on December 31st.
- Despite the secretive nature of the nation, North Korea has released information confirming that their leader King Jong-Un has been seriously injured. The man is experiencing chronic knee pain, but some wild rumors have circulated that Jong-Un's knees exploded. Again, the media has been unable to learn much about the man's physical state, but this presents a problem for North Korea. This could develop a power play among the military and government in North Korea should King Jong-Un die. If Kim Jong-Un dies, that would also cause the 2nd death of the leader of North Korea in 4 years.
- In the three Gubernatorial elections of 2015, the Republicans claimed victory in all of them. Bevin defeated Conway in Kentucky on 52 to 46. Governor Phil Bryant of Mississippi was re-elected with 63% of the vote. In Louisiana, Senator David Vitter crashed hard in the jungle primary. Surprisingly, Republican Gerald Long and Republican John N. Kennedy won first and second place in the jungle primary; Long won against Kennedy in the runoff.

President Obama Approval Rating Polls, December 29th-31st, 2015:

Gallup:
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 49%

Rasmussen:
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 52%

YouGov:
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 55%

2016 Primary Changes by January 1st:

* Italicized determines withdrawals, bold determines frontrunner.

GOP: Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal. (Added: Mark Everson.)

DEM: Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, Martin O'Malley, Larry Lessig.

BREAKING NEWS - Presidential Donald Trump Almost Assassinated, In Critical Condition.

New York City, NY - December 31st, 2015.

Businessman Donald Trump was shot by an assailant while at Times Square on New Year's Eve with his family. Although the would-be assassin failed to kill Trump and instead hit his left arm, the gunshot split the bone in his left arm in two. Trump passed out from shock, but was confirmed alive when rushed to a local NYC hospital. The assassination attempt was caught live on all major news channels, as it occurred during the Times Square Ball. Due to the events that took place, the Ball was cancelled this year and the feed was cut.

The assailant is believed to be a 30 year old Mexican-born man. While his real name is unknown, he is known to go by the alias Pancho; the alias was printed in red text on the back of his black hoodie. While Anderson Cooper was interviewing Donald Trump at the ball, Pancho reportedly broke in, pulled out a semiautomatic pistol, and yelled "I bet your gringo ass that a wall won't stop this!" as he shot Trump once, aiming for the chest but missing and instead landing the shot into Trump's arm. No one else was injured. The NYD and the FBI are both tracking down Pancho. None of the other candidates in either party have yet commented on this incident, and it is unknown if Trump will succumb to his wounds or not. (1)



The failed assassination attempt on Trump forced the cancellation of the Times Square Ball. The ball drop had been a yearly tradition in NYC since 1907, and this was the first time that it was cancelled in its entire history.

OOC Notes:

1. This is self-obvious, but figures such as Pancho will be fictional.

[Bigby]

Presidential Election Alert - Trump Withdraws, Endorses Cruz for President.

New York City, NY - January 8th, 2016.

While he has recovered well from the assassination attempt on his life, Donald Trump has decided that his health is too poor for him to continue his campaign. Trump quickly recovered, his life being saved with no major damage being done to his body besides his arm. However, the gunshot wound in his arm became infected. Doctors were eventually forced to amputate his arm three days ago. With only one arm and still in the hospital, Trump considers himself physically unfit to continue running for President. He sent out this tweet around 1 PM:



Ted Cruz has not released an official comment yet. In the wake of the shooting and the search for Pancho, gun control and illegal immigration will certainly become an active topic in the campaign and at the January 19 debate. Trump's endorsement of Cruz also has political scientists confirming notions that Cruz and Trump both belong in the same Tea Party wing of the GOP. Still, no new polls have been released due to the freshness of these developments.

Cruz Welcomes Trump Endorsement.

Austin, Texas - January 8th, 2003.

Senator Ted Cruz has confirmed in a statement to the press this morning that he welcomes Trump's endorsement of his candidacy. While working with campaign staff in Austin, Cruz spoke with both local and big time reporters. This is what he said in regards to Trump:

"I would like to remind America that guns are not to blame for Mr. Trump's misfortune. The man behind the gun is the real villain, and I know for a fact that Trump agrees with me. I would say the same thing even if it was my arm that was shot and amputated. The problem America has is not a gun problem, but a crime problem. A law-abiding citizen would not shoot a man for merely disagreeing with him politically, and that's what this shooting was about. That's something that radicals like Pancho should answer for.

I wholeheartedly welcome Mr. Trump's endorsement. He might seem a little mean-spirited at times, but he was only so extreme because he loves America. Look, we need a Republican candidate who will be willing to stick it to our enemies, to those who want to hurt us. America doesn't want a craven man or woman who is too scared to defend his or own beliefs. Since he is medically unable to continue his message of victory, I will gladly pick that mantle in his honor. Trump and I have much common ground, so I will happily work with him once he recovers."

Post-Trump Endorsement GOP Nomination Polls, January 16th, 2016:

RealClearPolitics Average (Gallup, Fox News, CNN, Rasmussen, and PPP):

Ted Cruz: 37% (Increased)
Ben Carson: 17% (Decreased)
Marco Rubio: 13% (Increased)
John Kasich: 10% (Stagnant)
Chris Christie: 8% (Increased)
Carly Fiorina: 5% (Decreased)
Others: 3%

RCP Synopsis: Half of the candidates dropping out last fall greatly evened out polling numbers in the field despite Trump's 30% ceiling. However, the sudden exit of Trump and his support for Cruz has paid well for Cruz, who gained the most. The Texas Senator had a range of 5 - 10%, but now has soaked up almost entirely all of Trump's numbers. Carson has decreased slightly from his 20% ceiling, but is still performing as usual. The current establishment favorites, Christie, Kasich, and Rubio have seen slight increases. Rubio is still the favorite of the establishment, though Kasich may overtake him at some point. Paul, Pataki, and Everson continue their status as the low-tier candidates, ranking 1% each.

Up Next: The Debates (The DNC will debate on Jan. 17th and the GOP will debate on Jan. 19th. The debates will each be posted separately.)

[Bigby]

Amputate? Is this 1862?

I felt kind of evil, to be honest. Trump just had some bad luck.

[Bigby]

Democratic Presidential Debate, Hosted by NBC and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute.

"Welcome to the next Democratic Presidential Debate. I am Brian Williams, and I will be the main moderator tonight. We are here at Charleston, South Carolina with the Congressional Black Caucus Institute. While Lincoln Chafee withdrew last December, we still have every other candidate here. Let's begin."

Issues Discussed: Iran Deal, Yemen, North Korea, the Economy, Taxes, Healthcare and Obamacare, the Stock Market, and Immigration.

Performance by Candidate:

Clinton: Clinton was her usual self. As with the previous debates, she remained as distant, cautious, and inoffensive as she could be. Thankfully for her, her email issue, which she was still being investigated for, was not brought up this time. That allowed her to make gains by discussing her plans. She took an overall centrist tone, and made no major gaffes. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement)

Biden: Despite Biden's usual state of being on the offensive, the continuing chaos in the Middle East and the stock market forced him to be on the defense like in December. However, he has been successful in not letting Obama's perceived mistakes hamper him. He has also been willing to slightly criticize the President, and that did not change here. He did make one mistake, although minor. He mocked Kim Jong-Un's knee injuries, but his joke used "Jong-Il" rather than Jong-Un. Professor Lessig took the time to correct him, but Biden just shrugged it off. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Decline)

Sanders: Sanders had managed to fend off increasing concerns about the unfeasible nature of his economic plans. It helped that he was oddly asked few economic questions. That benefit was undone since it was revealed that his weakness with minorities has only worsened. Sanders failed to get any cheers from the majority black audience. Furthermore, the Senator made a gaffe by saying that "he didn't have to deal with blacks that often when running in Vermont." His last and possibly biggest mistake was when he merely stuttered after Webb jokingly interjected his pro-police camera stance with "What, you just wanna give World Star more views?" Due to his failure to connect with the majority black audience, Sanders' usual strategy failed him. (Larry Sabato Rating: Decline)

Webb: Despite being a rather conservative Democrat, Webb actually increased his support tonight. Webb answered all of his questions directly, and has apparently decided to not hide the fact that he is not as liberal as his opponents this time. This is a huge change from his more scared persona from the last debates. Webb was not well-received by black members of the audience, but he avoided any major confrontations. However, many whites in the audience cheered his answers, especially ones where he let his protectionist views be known. Webb discovered his base in the DNC tonight, and that was the remnants of Southern white and socially conservative labor Dems. That won't win him the nomination, but a poll increase is a poll increase. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement)

O'Malley: O'Malley was... He never arrived to the debate. This was seen as a worse move than being mostly silent in the December debates. It is as if Fmr. Governor O'Malley has given up. (Larry Sabato Rating: Drastic Decline)

Lessig: Lessig was his usual self. He tied every single issue to campaign finance reform. At least he received cheers from the black audience due to his fervent support of BLM, and made no gaffes like Sanders. (Larry Sabato Rating: Stagnant)

Up Next: GOP Debate.

(Note: I think I did a fantastic job of not making that too bloated. Is everyone fine with just candidate and issue summaries for these debates? I did not want to make the debate post super long like I did in an earlier TL.)

[Bigby]

Republican Presidential Debate, Hosted by Fox News.

January 19th, 2016 - Ames, Iowa.



"Good Evening America. I am John Stossel, and this is the Second Fox News GOP Debate at Ames, Iowa. Since December, we have went down from eleven to eight candidates. Despite going strong, Graham and Walker will not be joining us. Although he dropped out due to health reasons, Trump will be a member of the viewing audience.

Issues Discussed: The Stock Market, the Iran Deal, Trade Deals, Illegal Immigration, Right to Work Laws, the Middle East, and Crime.

Performance by Candidate:

Cruz: Despite gaining virtually all of Trump's support, Senator Cruz differed little from his usual self. As with the other debates, he continued to be the unified voice of the Tea Party. His answers were largely the same, though he did offer some more solid answers on foreign policy. Cruz gave storng, positive answers on "Trumpite" issues, such as immigration and trade. He praised North Dakota for undoing its sanctuary state status, and slammed the TPP. His critique of the TPP gave him his strongest round of applause from the audience. He also praised the passage of right-to-work laws in Ohio, Kentucky, and Missouri, but pundits and audience members both agree that his answer was too vague. Cruz almost got in trouble with a black heckler over the issue of police, but was quickly able to defuse the situation. Overall, Cruz did not improve from last time, but did not falter either. (Larry Sabato Standing: Stagnant.)

Rubio: Rubio, like Cruz, stuck with his main strategy. He continued his streak of sounding articulate, reasonable, and genuine, which has allowed him to coast on a comfortable 10% ceiling. While he gave a rather conservative answer in regards to crime, the got cheers from the crowd rather than any hecklers, though some ultraconservative commentators derided his "appeasing" stance on Twitter. Rubio praised right-to-work laws as well, even giving Kasich praise specifically. He received great applause for his specifics; he brought forward the philosophical idea that unions forcing non-union members to pay union fees was unconstitutional, along with the fact that forced unionism holds creates unemployment and thus was harming economic recovery. He also took an anti-illegal sanctuary stance, but styled it in his more articulate tone than Cruz's boisterous flair. Rubio also received massive praise for his answer on Yemen. He blasted President Obama for allowing Yemen to fall to Shia rebels, claiming that Yemen was proof of Obama's "wait and see" foreign policy. In general, Rubio got the most cheers and the least jeers. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement)

Carson: Carson began strong during the night, but he became his own undoing. While Kasich was answering a question on Black Lives Matter, Carson fell asleep and began visibly snoring. To make matters worse, Carson was woken up by Trump yelling "Jesus H. Christ, and I thought Bush was low energy!" Carson was so humiliated that Stossel ignored him for the rest of the night, seemingly out of respect. The answers Carson gave were strong, but falling asleep became the biggest gaffe of the evening. (Larry Sabato Rating: Drastic Decline)

Fiorina: Although Fiorina fell in the polls, it has been more attributed to the rise of other non-Trump candidates than her own wrongdoing. That was proven right. Rubio received more applause overall during his foreign policy questions, but pundits agreed that Fiorina's answers were the most detailed. She tied in her new "Smart Defense" budget scheme that she claimed would return the military to its pre-sequester levels of spending without raising the overall deficit. She did mention that it would require cutting down on foreign aid, but instead of curious eyebrows she got... applause. Fiorina also revealed her stance on crime for the first time. While she did call for body cameras for police, she argued that it was for the benefit of the police and that such technology should be handled by state and local governments and not the federal government. Fiorina continued to impress. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement)

Kasich: Kasich continued his downward slide. His increase in the polls has now been attributed to, at least by Sean Hannity and Wolf Blitzer, as "an establishment panic" from when Jeb Bush withdrew in November. Kasich's downslide had been not steep at all, but it seems to have been sped up by Rubio. Rubio managed to land his right-to-work response before Kasich. When Rubio finished, Kasich blurted out "Damn it, you stole what I was going to say!" The mild jeers from the crowd that followed were a response to what Rachel Maddow would later consider "unneeded unprofessionalism." Thankfully for Kasich, his saving graces were a warm response to his more harsh answer on the Iran Deal, which was that "Iran is probably breaking the deal as we speak. We might as well make them be honest!" and that his gaffe was overshadowed by Carson's. Still, it was a bad night for Kasich. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Decline)

Paul: Senator Paul hoped that John Stossel would be receptive towards him as a fellow Libertarian. He was mistaken. Not only did Stossel treat Paul as harshly as he did the other candidates, he interrupted Paul when he compared himself to his father. Stossel, in his calm demeanor, that "I am sorry Rand, but you're not Ron. You're far too moderate." Paul let it go, not wanting to be jeered at like Kasich and Carson. The only reason that this was not seen as a decline was because he was already so low in the polls. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Decline)

Christie and Pataki: The two were hardly able to be considered different people tonight. They both tried to fill the role of "moderate" tonight, and they both failed. While Pataki was finally at a main debate, he failed to distinguish themselves. Even worse, self-described moderates were more drawn in by Rubio and Fiorina. (Larry Sabato Rating: Who Cares?)

Everson: Everson did not quality for the debate. He did not even appear in the audience like Gilmore and Trump.

Up Next: Iowa Primaries

[Bigby]

(Going to go ahead and make a small but important update.)

RCP Aggregate Polling for Iowa - January 27th, 2016:

Republicans:

Ted Cruz: 35%
Marco Rubio: 30%
Ben Carson: 10%
Carly Fiorina: 10%
John Kasich: 5%
Rand Paul: 5%
Chris Christie: 3%
Others: 2%

Democrats:

Bernie Sanders: 28%
Hillary Clinton: 28%
Joe Biden: 24%
Jim Webb: 13%
Martin O'Malley: 5%
Others: 2%

Primary Time! Iowa Primaries, Both Parties.

Republicans:

Ted Cruz: 40%
Marco Rubio: 31%
Carly Fiorina: 15%
Ben Carson: 6%
John Kasich: 5%
Rand Paul: 2%
All Others: 1%

Democrats:

Joe Biden: 29%
Hillary Clinton: 27%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Jim Webb: 18%
Martin O'Malley: 4%
Larry Lessing: 2%
Write-Ins: 1%

Synopsis: The Republican debate significantly altered the results in Iowa. Although Iowa is a conservative state at the GOP primary level, Rubio and Fiorina performed strongly enough to gain traction. It also helped both candidates that Carson falling asleep became a huge gaffe. In line with the 15% rule, only Cruz, Rubio, and Fiorina are expected to receive delegates. On the Democratic side, Biden and Clinton were neck-to-neck. Pollsters predicted that Sanders and Clinton would be the heavyweights in Iowa, but Sanders only pulled 19%. Shockingly, Webb scored 18% of the vote, and that 18% has been claimed to have come from more conservative and populist Democrats. Lessing and O'Malley will be the only Democrats to not gain any pledged delegates, but the two may receive unpledged delegates. (Those will be posted later.)

Up Next: The rest of February, Possible Synopsis of Feb. Debates, Withdrawals and Endorsements.

(Do you guys want the rest of the debates in detail, only in a synopsis, or no mention at all? I would like to remain quick and steady with the primaries so I can keep this TL going smoothly. I will wait until the Nevada and South Carolina primaries to count all of the delegates, particularly because I may need help.)

[Bigby]

Remaining February Primaries:

New Hampshire (Feb. 9th):

Republicans:

John Kasich: 41%
Carly Fiorina: 18%
Marco Rubio: 17%
Rand Paul: 13%
Ted Cruz: 7%
Chris Christie: 4%
Others: 1%

Democrats:

Bernie Sanders: 46%
Hillary Clinton: 26%
Joe Biden: 26%
Others: 2%

South Carolina (GOP), Nevada (Dems) (Feb. 20th):

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 43%
Ted Cruz: 25%
John Kasich: 13%
Rand Paul: 9%
Ben Carson: 8%
Others: 2%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 38%
Joe Biden: 30%
Jim Webb: 16%
Bernie Sanders: 16%

Nevada (GOP), South Carolina (DEM) (Feb. 23rd/27th):

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 34%
Ted Cruz: 21%
Rand Paul: 18%
John Kasich: 17%
Carly Fiorina: 8%
Others: 2%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 50%
Hillary Clinton: 20%
Jim Webb: 19%
Bernie Sanders: 19%

List of February Withdrawals and Withdrawal Endorsements:

Feb. 8th: Martin O'Malley and Larry Lessig withdraw from the Democratic race. O'Malley endorses Biden, and joins his campaign team. Lessig met with Sanders private and endorsed him since Sanders will involve Lessig in an effort to overturn Citizens United. O'Malley announced via CNN interview while Lessig announced directly to Youtube.

Feb. 10th: Lincoln Chaffee suspends his campaign during a press conference in Providence, Rhode Island. He announced his support for no one, but he is considered too insignificant to alter the race in any way. In fact, Chaffee criticized his fellow Democrats, claiming that they no longer represent the message of liberty that he adored from them. He announced his run for the Green Party before the conference ended.

Feb. 22nd: Ben Carson has withdrawn from the Republican race during an appearance on the O'Reilly Factor. He explained how South Carolina was his "last stand," and that he was aiming to go all in there to revive his gaffe-ridden campaign. However, that failed, and he "saw no reason to pester the American people anymore." Almost sounding broken, he seemingly made an endorsement. "Yeah, I support Cruz... I guess." The following day, he wrote an official statement confirming his support of Cruz.

Feb. 25th: A day after the Nevada primary, Rand Paul decided to drop out of the Republican primaries. He announced his withdrawal while at a campaign rally in Nevada. Although he received an odd surge after Iowa, he felt that he hit his ceiling. Surprisingly, he was eager to quickly endorse a candidate, almost as if this was predetermined. He endorsed Rubio, who he claimed was the closest to the libertarian ideals of the Paul family. Paul hopes to form a libertarian/moderate coalition with Rubio, and did not mention any other possibilities, so his choice of Rubio seems adamant. Paul only scored above 15% in Nevada, but the delegates he received will go to Rubio with this endorsement. This came only a day before the next GOP debate.

Pre-Super Tuesday Debates Announced, Obama and Romney Will Attend Respective Party Debates.

The debate schedule was rescheduled to give a next to last debate for each party right before Super Tuesday on March 1st. The Republican debate will take place on February 26th while the Democratic debate will take place on February 29th. NBC, Telemundo, and the National Review will cover the Republican debate at Houston, Texas while Univision and the Washington Post will host the Democratic debate at Miami, Florida. Lester Holt of NBC will be the primary moderator for the Republicans and Jorge Ramos of Univision will be the main moderator of the Democratic debate. President Obama has already pledged to view the Democratic debate live, but will not endorse a candidate until after Super Tuesday. Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney will do the same for the Republicans, and has made a similar Super Tuesday pledge.

Up Next: The Republican Debate, the Democratic Debate, Super Tuesday

(By the way, the Republican debate is also held on Feb. 26th in real life too. Hooray for convinience.)

[Bigby]

Kasich was merely lackluster because he scored second(according to social media) or third in the first debate. He has always been a strong debater. See here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K5ryrc7sXsY

Also, why isn't Rubio tugging on Cruz's Tea Party ties? I've never understood why people think Bush prefers him to Kasich or Fiorina. I suspect you'll have Rubio sweep through New Hampshire and South Carolina despite the lack of infrastructure in the former and huge focus on the latter. Rubio has an easy path to victory here, but I think you're going about it the wrong way.

I'm sorry if this just seems like a lot of criticism, but I really like your detail and format. Perhaps county maps for each primary and seperate run-downs for each party's primary would make it easier to seperate out in my head, but I like your original style.

I'll keep these suggestions in mind for the debates. If you think Kasich deserves some love, well, read the update I just posted and stay tuned. Thanks for the criticism and praise both.

[Bigby]

Pre-Super Tuesday Republican Debate, hosted by NBC.

"Welcome to Houston, America! I'm NBC Nightly host Lester Holt, and I'm about to host the Pre-Super Tuesday debate for the Republican Presidential Race. It's going to be a fun night, and I have no doubt that these candidates will impress. I will be joined by Luis Carlos Mendoza of Telemundo, who is polite enough to let us broadcast this on his station. I will also be joined by Rich Lowry of the National Review. Finally, Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney will be attending. It will be an exciting night, so let's get this show on the road!"

Issues Discussed: Illegal Immigration, Pope Francis and the Catholic Church, Bilingualism, National Security, Education, Healthcare, and Corporate Tax.

Performance by Candidate:

Rubio: The Florida Senator performed well, even in Cruz's home turf. While Rubio was one of the friendliest candidates towards the plurality Hispanic audience, he still stood by the more conservative views that he has espoused during his campaign. Rubio stood by his "tough but reasonable" stance on immigration, and received applause for his emphasis on restructuring legal immigration to be based on merit rather than on "nepotism." He also took the middle ground on bilingualism, applauding the stats quo of there being no federal official language while the states could decide on official languages. His stance there was not heavily applauded, but at least he was not booed for it. His two biggest triumphs of the night came from his answers on Catholicism and corporate taxation. White and Hispanic Catholics booth cheered him on when he refused to attack Pope Francis, and said that "God is the ultimate judge in what is right and what is wrong. Pope Francis and I may not always agree, but as a fellow Catholic and a fellow Christian, I am sure that we both agree that we are both children of God." Despite being called the current "establishment favorite," Rubio was willing to consider a rise in tariffs combined with his strong 20% reduction of the corporate tax. He argued that a 45% corporate tax rate is the biggest cause of outsourcing, which audience members seemed to agree on. While he did not differ much from his previous debate performances, Rubio's strong streak will further cement him as the front-runner. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement.)

Cruz: Cruz, while considered to have been the second strongest performer, received mixed reception from the audience and from the moderators. He remained on good terms with Holt, but he and Mendoza got into a heated debate about Cruz's "Latino-ness." Cruz was initially treated coldly during his answer by Latino audience members until he proclaimed that "a Latino candidate should be as free to espouse whatever beliefs he or she felt to be true. Latinos are just as varied, just as differing, and just as persuadable as other Americans." While the Senator pulled himself out of that would-be gaffe, Latino viewers continued to prefer Rubio. Cruz did find his niche among Tea Party and populist viewers, as usual. Cruz agreed that the corporate tax should be lowered, but that he would refuse to be a "lap dog" for these "anti-American, enemy-loving traitors" that many corporations have become. Virtually every other candidate opposed Obamacare and Obama's foreign policy like Cruz, but his language was the harshest and most negative towards the President's policies, something that also boosted his support with the Tea Party clique in the audience. Many political scientists and moderate Republicans expressed fear after the debate that Cruz is too much of a Tea Party favorite to be able to win a general election, but his firm status as THE representative of the Tea Party will allow him to continue to be a major obstacle for the other candidates; this debate was a reconfirmation of that. (Larry Sabato Rating: Stagnant.)

Kasich: If Cruz is the firm right of the 2016 GOP and Rubio is the middle ground, then Kasich is the choice of the firm center. When Lowry asked the Governor why some conservatives considered him "too liberal," Kasich calmly stated that "extremists" were "trying to ruin the election for the Republicans. We have to be reasonable and pragmatic if we want to prevent a Democratic victory in 2016." Tea Party members jeered him for that answer, but he received far more praise than criticism. Kasich's moderate shtick also showed in his stances on the issues. He was the only candidate besides Pataki to endorse Common Core. However, his pro-Common Core stance was met with overall derision from the audience. Perhaps too opportunistically, he did rebound when he blasted teachers' unions for "caring about their extortion schemes more than the education of our children." Many left-wing commentators ans groups grilled Kasich for that statement, but much of the audience and the base as a whole gave him approval for that stance. The Ohio Governor also defended his Medicaid expansion, and did so by separating it from Obama and Obamacare. Medicaid has been around for over 50 years, a fact that Kasich benefited from by reminding the viewers of it. Though "to the left" of Rubio, as Charles Krauthammer has been describing Kasich, the Ohio Governor can pose a threat to Rubio should be overtake him in moderate and establishment voters. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement.)

Christie: The bad news for Christie is that Kasich tended to overshadow him. The good news for Christie is that not only did he actually become relevant in this debate, his strategy as now described by Nate Silver of "being a more conservative, more hawkish Kasich" has worked. Christie received the most screen time, albeit by a slim margin, on the issue of national security. He tied it with foreign policy, and despite the moderators' insistence that he should not stray from the topic, the audience received his message well. Christie also managed to deflect accusations from both Cruz and Kasich that he was "flip-flopping" on Common Core. Christie stated oddly calmly, for Christie, that it was a mistake that had to be corrected, and "sometimes you gotta correct mistakes, no matter who made 'em." He managed to get chuckles from the audience when he quipped "say, that sounds like a lot of the stuff from Obama, doesn't it?" It is unknown if Christie will surge tremendously, but it is not to be disputed that the Governor managed to put himself back on the map. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement.)

Fiorina: Fiorina had a horrible time at the debate, and many consider it to be no fault of her own. For a woman who impressed at the Ames debate in January and got an impressive second place in New Hampshire, Fiorina was largely ignored by the moderators and the other candidates. Fiorina did not get booed, but she did not receive much cheering either. In fact, most of the buzz about Fiorina this time around was from after the debate, not during. Many of her followers on Twitter accused the moderators of sexism, and many of the tweets became notorious for attacking Mendoza and Holt the most. These particular tweets contained racial language, implying that Mendoza and Holt were, as Bill Maher interpreted them, "being backwards like the brown (expletive deleted) they are." Maher and several other political satirists had a field day with this over the weekend. Fiorina had a massive streak of bad luck due to external factors both during and after the debate. (Larry Sabato Rating: Sharp Decline.)

Pataki: Pataki caught a stomach bug and abstained from the debate due to health reasons.

Up Next: The Democratic Debate, Maps and Delegate Count for February Primaries.

[Bigby]

White and Hispanic Catholics booth cheered him on when he refused to attack Pope Francis, and said that "God is the ultimate judge in what is right and what is wrong. Pope Francis and I may not always agree, but as a fellow Catholic and a fellow Christian, I am sure that we both agree that we are both children of God."

Wait a minute, last I heard, Rubio was a Catholic. Now I know he sent his kids to a private Christian school, but I don't think that means that the Rubio Family isn't Catholic. Though, they could have converted ITTL

Did you read the part right before it about "as a fellow Catholic"?

....ooooh okay... I think I read it as for, in stead of as. Anyways, moving on

It's fine.  At least you're reading. The Democratic debate will be coming soon.

[Bigby]

Democratic Pre-Super Tuesday Debate, hosted by Univision.

"Bienvenidos, mis amigos. I am Jorge Ramos, and I am here in Miami, Florida to host the Pre-Super Tuesday Democratic Presidential Debate. I will be joined by Washington Post columnist Ed Rodgers. There will be only four candidates, so we have the luxury of asking them more topics along with hearing longer answers. I would like to remind our viewers that President Barack Obama will be spectating the debate, which will be interesting to see how the candidates respond to that. Now without a further ado, we shall begin."

Issues Discussed: Congressional Leadership, Illegal Immigration, Unemployment, the Stock Market, Gun Rights, Gay Marriage, and Obama's Legacy.

Performance by Candidate:

Biden: The Vice President had become the frontrunner by the time of the debate, something which invigorated him. He seemed to be the most energetic of the candidates, and did not shy away from President Obama's liberal record. While still willing to criticize the President when need be, he was the most positive towards Obama. He defended Obamacare, the President's stance on gay marriage, and other things. He highlighted that unemployment was finally back down to 6.0%, and the Dow is back to 16,000 for the first time. These facts played well into Biden's strategy, and the audience's receptiveness towards him confirmed that his strategy was a working one. Biden avoided making a gaffe similar to his Kim Jong-Il gaffe from January, despite having to avoid making a joke about Speaker of House Raul Labrador. Obama seemed to enjoy Biden's responses the most, while neither Ramos nor Rogers were visibly biased towards Biden in either direction. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement.)

Clinton: Ramos seemed to be enamored with Hillary, but Rogers seemed critical of her. Some conservative commentators slammed Ramos for supposed pro-Hillary bias, while liberal commentators did the same for Rogers' supposed anti-Hillary bias. Rogers' questions to Hillary usually revolved around the darker events of her time in government, such as the Monica scandal, Benghazi, and her ongoing email investigation. She managed to get the audience cheer her on every now and then, but the camera showed repeatedly that many were still unsure of her. Clinton had two major problems during the debate: her tie-in answer on gay marriage and guns and  her eye movement. When tying in her views on gay marriage and gun laws, she let it slip that "she was doing what 'civilized people' wanted to get done, not what 'backwards wackos' wanted." Despite it being a Democratic debate, the audience was not happy at all with her response. She also repeatedly glared at Obama, as if she were yearning for his approval, something that made everyone at the debate and watching at home uncomfortable. Her saving graces were the near-universal approval of Hispanic audience members thanks to her pro-amnesty position and that Obama was at least somewhat positive of Hillary through his facial expressions. Despite these saving graces, Hillary objectively lost first place to Biden. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Decline to Decline, In Between.)

Sanders: The Vermont Senator had kept a spectacular performance going during the primary season, and he cemented it tonight. It was obvious that Sanders was not a mainstream Democrat, but he certainly held onto his liberal populist niche. What also benefited Sanders, ironically, was his pro-gun stance and resistance to open borders. While consistent with his voting record, Sanders took a gamble, even if it turned out to have paid off. Sanders not only claimed that the 2nd Amendment "needs to always be protected, even if some reforms are needed," but he wanted to ensure that immigration reform "did not hamper the economic recovery of the workforce already here." These stances allow for Sanders to keep his niche while possibly extending to the center. Another huge boost for Sanders was that the white members of the audience solidly gave him the best reception. The moderators, like with Biden, seemed neutral to Sanders overall. Obama was neutral to Sanders, but did get caught smiling a few times when Sanders spoke, especially when Sanders discussed economics. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement.)

Webb: Unlike Hillary, Webb was met with more positiveness from Rogers than from Ramos. However, that was not the biggest issue for Webb. Not only had Sanders managed to cut into Webb's base during the night, but the Florida audience was much less warm to Webb than the audience of the South Carolina debate. On Fox News' discussion of the debate, Sean Hannity even called him "a right-wing version of Sanders." Webb was solidly more pro-gun, even moreso than Sanders, and outright rejected amnesty. He received more cheers than jeers, but most of the positive reception came form voters who already supported Webb. Most pundits agreed that Obama felt the least positive about Webb, especially when Webb defended the choice of Raul Labrador for Speaker, claiming that Democrats should "not descend to the level of ideological zealotry that they claim Republicans do, and should lead by example if they really are the more 'moderate' party." The audience seemed to agree, but the President implied that he did not. Webb performed oddly well in every primary so far save for New Hampshire, but that will likely change after tonight. (Larry Sabato Rating: Decline.)

(OOC Note: I added the bit about a new Speaker of House since Boehner recently resigned in real life. This is retroactive, yes, but I will add a bonus mini-update after this that explains how and why it happened in this TL. I will also go ahead and declare the real life CNN GOP debate as happening here, and Boehner's announcement on Sept. 25th as the official point of divergence. I will also include the new Majority Leader and Whip as well, for the sake of knowledge.)

[Bigby]

Retroactive Recap: The Final Days of John Boehner As Speaker.

Speaker of House John Boehner announced on September 25th of 2015 that he would resign after a vote to shut down the government. Be managed to prevent a shutdown 330-100 on October 1st, which will help make his legacy be seen more positively, but he was still forced to uphold his promise of resignation. A vote for new leadership was set to be held on October 30th, and Boehner would effectively retire from both Speakership and Congress itself on November 6th. Tea Party anger was still high, and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was seen as more of the same. Majority Whip Steve Scalise ran against him as the Tea Party standard bearer.

 McCarthy became politically toxic, and it seemed that Scalise was set to become the next Speaker of House. However, during the middle of October, Scalise's attendance of white supremacist rallies and potential white supremacist ties resurfaced. Scalise just became as undesirable as McCarthy. As a result, Raul Labrador, who had been running for Speaker as a compromise candidate, began forming a compromise coalition between establishment and Tea Party forces. Scalise tried to paint Labrador as too moderate like McCarthy, but he failed to attach the taint of Boehner's influence onto Labrador like he did with McCarthy. Labrador squeaked by on a slim but comfortable margin and became the first Hispanic and first Mormon Speaker of House.

Although Labrador succeeded to be a middle ground between establishment and conservative forces, there was no compromise when it came to Majority Leader and Whip. Tom Price, a Tea Party Caucus member, managed to defeat Cathy Morris Rodgers for House Majority Leader. Meanwhile, the Majority Whip went from Tea Party control to strong establishment control. Peter King succeeded in beating Steve King, Marsha Blackburn, and Paul Ryan for control of the Whip. With Labrador as a middle ground force, control of the House GOP became evenly divided between moderates and conservatives.

Democratic leadership as the minority remained the same. However, the House is seen as universally becoming even more conservative. Labrador held some moderate positions and was seen as willing to compromise, but the fact that he had to promise a bigger voice to the Tea Party was a sign that the establishment failed to hold onto its level of power. Even worse, the House Majority Leader was a member of the Tea Party Caucus himself. Peter King had become Majority Whip, but he is not too popular, so his influence will be questionable at best. Regardless, the Tea Party also failed to entirely fake over Congressional leadership.

House Leadership as of November 6th, 2015:

Republicans:

Speaker of House: Raul Labrador (R - ID)
House Majority Leader: Tom Price (R - GA)
House Majority Whip: Peter King (R - NY)

Democrats:

House Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D - CA)
House Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer (D - MD)

[Bigby]

Primary Maps So Far (Pre-Super Tuesday)

NOTE: Delegates from an endorsed candidate will be added as candidates withdraw and endorse others, but percentages will still be tracked separately.

GOP:

Delegate Count (WIP)

Marco Rubio: 60
(Includes Nevada Delegates for Rand Paul)
Ted Cruz: 39
John Kasich: 18
Carly Fiorina: 11

DEM:

Delegate Count (WIP)

Joe Biden: 55
Hillary Clinton: 41
Bernie Sanders: 34
Jim Webb: 21
(No Superdelegates have been pledged yet.)

Up Next: 2012 Candidate Endorsements, Super Tuesday.

[Bigby]

Obama, Romney Make Endorsements Known.

President Obama and Fmr. Governor Romney have both announced their endorsements for the 2016 race via Twitter, both around 6 AM. Obama gave a least likely preference. Romney, in accordance with Buckley's 11th Amendment, did not give any negative remarks towards any candidate in his tweet.

Super Tuesday! All Primaries Held On March 1st.

News Alert: North Carolina has been moved to March 15th for both parties, and the Republican primary has been set to WTA. Kansas has been moved to March 1st.

Alabama:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 47%
Marco Rubio: 28%
John Kasich: 15%
Chris Christie: 7%
Others: 3%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 55%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Jim Webb: 8%
Bernie Sanders: 7%

Alaska (GOP Only)

Marco Rubio: 50%
Ted Cruz: 45%
Others: 5%

Arkansas:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 53%
Marco Rubio: 31%
John Kasich: 9%
Chris Christie: 6%
Others: 1%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 56%
Joe Biden: 26%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Jim Webb: 8%

Colorado:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 38%
John Kasich: 24%
Ted Cruz: 19%
Chris Christie: 16%
Others: 3%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 36%
Joe Biden: 29%
Hillary Clinton: 27%
John Hickenlooper (Write-In): 5%
Jim Webb: 3%

Georgia:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 44%
Ted Cruz: 29%
Carly Fiorina: 13%
John Kasich: 12%
Chris Christie: 2%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 49%
Hillary Clinton: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 17%
Jim Webb: 5%
Write-In (Mostly Michelle Nunn): 4%

Kansas:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 55%
Marco Rubio: 20%
Chris Christie: 15%
John Kasich: 9%
Others: 1%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Joe Biden: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Jim Webb: 16%

(I'll continue this update in a new post. I have divided it in two for convenience. Also, links on Romney's page turn red for some reason. Must be his page design, I guess.)

[Bigby]

Massachusetts:

GOP:

John Kasich: 37%
Chris Christie: 25%
Marco Rubio: 22%
Carly Fiorina: 10%
Ted Cruz: 6%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 45%
Hillary Clinton: 25%
Joe Biden: 25%
Jim Webb: 5%

Minnesota:

GOP:

Chris Christie: 30%
John Kasich: 29%
Ted Cruz: 21%
Marco Rubio: 18%
Others: 2%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 50%
Joe Biden: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 17%
Jim Webb: 3%

Oklahoma:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 62%
Marco Rubio: 28%
Chris Christie: 6%
Others: 4%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 42%
Joe Biden: 40%
Jim Webb: 15%
Bernie Sanders: 3%

Tennessee:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 37%
Marco Rubio: 32%
John Kasich: 20%
Carly Fiorina: 5%
Chris Christie: 5%
Others: 1%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 30%
Jim Webb: 15%
Hillary Clinton: 15%

Texas:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 46%
Marco Rubio: 38%
John Kasich: 11%
Chris Christie: 5%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 41%
Hillary Clinton: 28%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Jim Webb: 6%

Vermont:

GOP:

Chris Christie: 51%
John Kasich: 40%
Marco Rubio: 9%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 72%
Joe Biden: 18%
Hillary Clinton: 10%

Virginia:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 40%
John Kasich: 26%
Ted Cruz: 25%
Chris Christie: 4%
Others: 5%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 35%
Hillary Clinton: 25%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Jim Webb: 14%
Write-In: 1%

Wyoming:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 55%
Ted Cruz: 30%
Chris Christie: 15%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 32%
Joe Biden: 31%
Jim Webb: 20%
Hillary Clinton: 17%

Maps and Delegates:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 331 (from 60)
Ted Cruz: 336 (from 39)
John Kasich: 98 (from 18)
Chris Christie: 53 (from 0)
Carly Fiorina: 11 (Unchanged)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 339(from 55)
Bernie Sanders: 283 (from 34)
Hillary Clinton: 264 (from 41)
Jim Webb: 57 (from 21)

Synopsis: Rubio, with the blessings of Romney's endorsement, a slight frontrunner status, and the support of a slim majority of libertarian voters thanks to Paul, continued to dominate the Republican field. Cruz held his own very well as well, thanks to the amount of Tea-Party states holding primaries today. However, Rubio was a strong second in many states, particularly in Texas, so Cruz's Tea Party push was more limited than anticipated. Still, Cruz is 5 more delegate counts ahead of Rubio, but that is anticipated to change very soon. Kasich came in a strong second in many places as well, but Christie's surge limits Kasich as the moderate vote becomes divided. On the Democratic side, Biden is the frontrunner and has no Cruz analogue to worry about currently. The closest second up, Bernie Sanders, has solidified the anti-establishment block so concretely that he has gained surprise victories such as Colorado and Wyoming. Clinton has visibly worsened, but she nonetheless received many delegates and even won three states. The worst Democrat this day was Webb, who was damned by his own poor debate performance and Obama's curse. Like Carly Fiorina on the GOP side, he has some delegates, but his influence is more minimal and would only marginally push the race in any direction now.

[Bigby]

Great job! The detail is amazing.

I'm betting that Biden and Rubio maintain their frontrunner statuses, with Clinton eventually dropping out due to losing her biggest bastion of support (the South) and Rubio/Cruz basically becoming the two most dominant Reps as the others realize their days are numbered.

How did Alaska go for Rubio?

It was an upset. Palin endorsed Cruz since Trump got shot in January. However, Paul's political endorsement of Rubio translated into more libertarian support for Rubio there than elsewhere, even though it helped him nationwide too. It helps that Rubio won over moderate and establishment support with flying colors since Kasich and Christie did not even try in Alaska. Ditto for Wyoming.

[Bigby]

Rubio-Kasich

AG: Chris Christie

We'll see on both. I do promise that things will get interesting, though.

[Bigby]

Fiorina, Kasich Drop Out, Make Endorsements.

March 2nd, 2016.

CEO Carly Fiorina and Fmr. Governor George Pataki have withdrawn from the Republican race. Both cited poor performances on Super Tuesday as their main reasoning for their respective withdrawals. Though Fiorina did win prominent percentages in many states, she failed to pick up any new delegates. Pataki did not place anything significant. Both candidates declared an endorsement in their dropping out speeches.

"This year is not the year of Fiorina, and I'm not going to deny it. I am withdrawing from the Republican primaries, and I will endorse Senator Marco Rubio. That includes pledging my 11 delegates to him. While I am endorsing Rubio, I am not going to make any public appearances for him or any other candidate. I am returning to private life completely."

"Look, I'm not going anywhere with this whole campaign. I am suspending my campaign and endorsing Governor John Kasich. We've got to keep the lunatics from winning somehow."

Pataki had failed to amass any delegates at all, so his endorsement of Kasich was seen as merely a reconfirmation of Kasich as the moderate choice. However, Fiorina's endorsement of Rubio was met with far more buzz. Cruz had become a very slight frontrunner with only 5 more delegates than Rubio after Super Tuesday. That was expected to change very shortly, and with Fiorina pledging her delegates to Rubio, Cruz is back at second place before the March 5 primaries had even begun.

March 5th Primaries, Kentucky and Louisiana.

Kentucky:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 43%
Ted Cruz: 35%
Chris Christie: 15%
John Kasich: 7%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Joe Biden: 34%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Jim Webb: 5%

Louisiana:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 47%
Ted Cruz: 41%
John Kasich: 7%
Chris Christie: 5%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 52%
Hillary Clinton: 40%
Jim Webb: 4%
Bernie Sanders: 4%

Jim Webb Drops Out, Blasts Fellow Dems.

Richmond, Virginia - March 6th, 2016.

"My prospects of becoming the next President have been shot down thanks to radicals from my own party! Look, I'm in line with the Democratic Party, but the rest of the party has gotten so bad that they're as purist as the Tea Party. Not only are these pundits claiming that I'm a "DINO," but the President has even bought into this nonsense! Well, it's obvious that I'm no longer welcome. I am withdrawing from the Presidential race, but I'm not endorsing a single candidate. I refuse to endorse any other candidate even if my delegates being in the air causes a brokered convention. You reap what you sow."

March 8th Primaries, Democrats Abroad, Hawaii (GOP Only), Mississippi, Michigan

Democrats Abroad:

Bernie Sanders: 49%
Joe Biden: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 21%

Hawaii (GOP)

John Kasich: 40%
Marco Rubio: 32%
Chris Christie: 16%
Ted Cruz: 12%

Mississippi:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 52%
Marco Rubio: 35%
Chris Christie: 9%
John Kasich: 4%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 60%
Hillary Clinton: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 7%

Michigan:

GOP:

John Kasich: 31%
Chris Christie: 26%
Marco Rubio: 26%
Ted Cruz: 17%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 48%
Joe Biden: 26%
Hillary Clinton: 26%

Synopsis: Thanks to Paul's influence and a small boost from Fiorina, Rubio managed to snatch Kentucky, though Cruz and Christie performed well enough to gather delegates for themselves. Though he won against Cruz by only 6%, Rubio also won Louisiana with a coalition of Catholics, Cajuns, and non-Tea Party conservatives. Indeed, Cruz constantly remained a close second against Rubio in many states. Cruz only won Mississippi from the 5th to 8th, but he continues to rack up delegates and risk a brokered convention. Christie has won delegates in almost every state, though Kasich outperformed him and managed to win pluralities in Hawaii and Michigan. Hillary Clinton has managed to revive her potentially dying campaign by winning Kentucky, though troubling for her, that was her only win both days. Biden continues to sweep the South thanks to black voters while Sanders continues to dominate the Rust Belt with the support of liberals and populists. With Webb gone, Sanders has a shot at becoming the nominee, no longer burdened by the conservadem populists boosting him up at Sanders' expense.

Up Next: Puerto Rico GOP Primary, A Reminder from Reince Priebus, Maps and Delegates before March 15th, A Disastrous Turn at Albuquerque,

[Bigby]

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus Reminds Candidates of March 15th WTA Cutoff.

March 9th, 2016 - Dover, New Jersey.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus made the time in a press conference to remind the four Republican Presidential candidates that all primaries during and after March 15th must follow the Winner Take All apportionment for state delegates. The last primary that will fall under proportional apportionment will be Puerto Rico on March 13th. This rule was established to make the primaries quicker and prevent a long, drawn out season such as 2012 or a brokered convention.

A Disastrous Turn at Albuquerque! Congressman Steve Pearce Assassinated!

March 11th, 2016 - Albuquerque, New Mexico.

While in Albuquerque, Congressman Steve Pearce (R - NM) was shot by a hooded assailant. The assassin carried a sheathed blade in his sleeve, which he used to slit Pearce's throat. Although the man was successful, security managed to grab him before he could evade the crime scene. His only words were, "I'm better at this than Pancho." Many are now speculating that Pearce's assassin is either in league with Pancho, who still remains at-large, or is a copy cat of him. A funeral for Pearce will be held in his birthplace of Lamesa, Texas. Special primaries will be held on April 12th to fill Pearce's now vacant seat, and the special general election will be held on May 10th.

In Loving Memory of Steve. (August 24th, 1947 - March 11th, 2016.

Senator Marco Rubio Wins In Puerto Rico Primary!

Senator Rubio is victorious in the GOP Puerto Rico primary. While this is a big victory for Rubio, it surprises few people. Rubio is one of two Latinos in the Republican race, and despite being rather conservative on immigration, Latinos have taken more kindly to him than with Ted Cruz. He was also the only candidate to have visited Puerto Rico this cycle, having held a campaign rally in February and also on March 1st. Interestingly, Rubio is also the only candidate to receive delegates, as a mock Write-In campaign for Ricky Martin as a protest against Cruz's support from Trump blocked the other candidates from receiving a threshold of 15% in the vote count. Rubio will return to his cycle of visiting Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida after speaking to supporters in San Juan.

Marco Rubio: 61%
Ricky Martin (Write-In): 18%
John Kasich: 14%
Ted Cruz: 7%

Maps and Delegates Before March 15th:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 448 (from 342)
Ted Cruz: 409 (from 336)
John Kasich: 125 (from 98)
Chris Christie: 78 (from 53)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 449 (from 339)
Bernie Sanders: 380 (from 283)
Hillary Clinton: 348 (from 264)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Synopsis: Though Cruz is right behind him, Rubio has further cemented his victory status. Jolted by a win in Puerto Rico, Rubio's wins in Louisiana and Kentucky gave him the jolt necessary to not be overtaken by Cruz. Kasich and Christie have both continued to gain, but Cruz is currently the biggest worry for Rubio. On the Democratic side, Biden draws further away from Sanders and Clinton. Clinton is within striking distance of Sanders, but a continuous third place for the once de facto nominee is not a good showing at all. Unluckily for all three Democrats, the WTA method only applies to GOP nominees.

Up Next: Ides of March Primaries, Campaign Shifts, March 22nd Primaries.

[Bigby]

While in Albuquerque, Congressman Steve Pearce (R - NM) was shot by a hooded assailant. The assassin carried a sheathed blade in his sleeve, which he used to slit Pearce's throat. Although the man was successful, security managed to grab him before he could evade the crime scene. His only words were, "I'm better at this than Pancho.

OH NO SHAUN! Or would that be someone else? None the less, interesting read so far.

I have no idea what that is an allusion to, but thanks for commenting.

[Bigby]

Ides of March Primaries!

Ohio:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 39%
John Kasich: 38%
Ted Cruz: 13%
Chris Christie: 10%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 40%
Joe Biden: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 30%

Florida:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 48%
Ted Cruz: 29%
John Kasich: 15%
Chris Christie: 8%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 41%
Joe Biden: 36%
Bernie Sanders: 23%

Illinois:

GOP:

John Kasich: 45%
Marco Rubio: 27%
Chris Christie: 15%
Ted Cruz: 13%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 34%
Joe Biden: 33%
Hillary Clinton: 33%

Missouri:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 42%
John Kasich: 27%
Marco Rubio: 27%
Chris Christie: 4%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 30%
Joe Biden: 30%

North Carolina:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 38%
Ted Cruz: 31%
John Kasich: 16%
Chris Christie: 15%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 50%
Hillary Clinton: 31%
Bernie Sanders: 19%

North Dakota:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 34%
Chris Christie: 27%
Marco Rubio: 24%
John Kasich: 15%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Bernie Sanders: 32%
Joe Biden: 22%

Maps and Delegates:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 685 (from 448)
Ted Cruz: 489 (from 409)
John Kasich: 169 (from 125)
Chris Christie: 78 (Unchanged)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 703 (from 449)
Hillary Clinton: 601 (from 348)
Bernie Sanders: 584 (from 380)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Synopsis: Rubio is truly pulling away from the rest of the Republican pack. With a surprise win in Ohio, he gains extra delegates that were not expected to go to him, and he also cut deep into Kasich's chances. While Kasich won in Illinois and Cruz won in Missouri and North Dakota, their chances to become nominee will lessen if Rubio continues to dominate during the WTA period. Neither of them, especially Cruz, are necessarily done for, but the more states Rubio wins, the more of a clear frontrunner he becomes. For the Democrats, the race remains much tighter. Apart from the fact that the Democratic Convention simply has more delegates than the Republican one, the three main contenders are much closer in delegate count. Hillary is finally ahead of Sanders, but by less than 20 delegates. Even worse, Sanders won in Ohio and Illinois, meaning that he could even overtake Biden once all of the Midwestern and Western states have voted if he can maintain his base. Combined with the lack of a universal WTA modifier, this means that the Democratic Convention is more likely to be brokered than the Republican one.

Up Next: Special Ohio Synopsis, March 22nd and 26th Primaries, Final Debates!

[Bigby]

(I know I'm pushing out a lot of updates this week, but the rest of October may be rather busy for me when it comes to college work, so I'm making up for it.)

Nate Silver's Look Into Rubio's Ohio Primary Win:

March 18th, 2016. (EXCERPT)

When Rubio won the Ohio primary last Tuesday, everyone was shocked. Ohio Governor John Kasich was the favorite son for that race, being a popular incumbent Governor and all. Many are wondering whether Kasich blundered hard, or if Rubio had a stroke of luck. It was neither. What cost Kasich Ohio was overt confidence in his chances. Popular incumbent or not, Kasich did not campaign actively whatsoever in his home state, and although his loss was a slim one, it was a costly one.

Since Kasich felt so cocksure in his victory in Ohio, he has not campaigned at all in his home state since January. Instead, he campaigned in the Midwest and the West where he expected to win, but needed to ensure that other candidates did not trump him. Rubio, Cruz, and Christie all filled the void made by Kasich, with Rubio being the most eager and involved candidate. Rubio expanded upon his formerly expected 15-20% roof by appealing to moderates and non-Tea Party conservatives. He particularly ate into Christie's territory, capturing a significant amount of his votes while the New Jersey Governor campaigned more in Kentucky, Illinois, and North Carolina. Rubio's more conservative brand of establishment identity also managed to keep Cruz down, who did visit Ohio but visited North Carolina twice as much. Though he only won North Carolina and his native Florida on March 15th alongside Ohio, Rubio's Ohio strategy has evidently paid off, especially to the detriment of John Kasich.

March 22nd and 26th Primaries:

Arizona:

GOP:

Ted Cruz: 45%
Marco Rubio: 30%
Chris Christie: 13%
John Kasich: 12%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 40%
Hillary Clinton: 35%
Bernie Sanders: 25%

Idaho:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 51%
Ted Cruz: 39%
Chris Christie: 10%

DEM:

Joe Biden: 34%
Hillary Clinton: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 33%

Utah:

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 45%
Ted Cruz: 27%
John Kasich: 18%
Chris Christie: 10%%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 41%
Joe Biden: 28%
Hillary Clinton: 21%

Alaska (DEM Only)

Joe Biden: 50%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Hillary Clinton: 25%

Hawaii (DEM Only)

Joe Biden: 60%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Bernie Sanders: 10%

Washington:

GOP:

John Kasich: 47%
Chris Christie: 22%
Marco Rubio: 22%
Ted Cruz: 3%

DEM:

Bernie Sanders: 49%
Joe Biden: 33%
Hillary Clinton: 18%

Delegate Count Before Wisconsin (Maps Postponed Until Wisconsin Primary)

(Gonna go ahead and be nice enough to give delegate counts for the sake of the narrative.)

GOP:

Marco Rubio: 757 (from 685)
Ted Cruz: 547 (from 489)
John Kasich: 213 (from 169)
Chris Christie: 78 (Unchanged)

DEM:

Joe Biden: 792 (from 703)
Hillary Clinton: 663 (from 601)
Bernie Sanders: 662 (from 584)
Jim Webb: 57 (Unchanged)

Campaign Shifts: Final Debates Announced in Wisconsin, Candidates Begin Campaign Push in State.

As the candidates are preparing for what they hope will be their final push to victory, Wisconsin is seeing a surge in political ads and candidate appearances. The state is increasingly becoming the deciding factor in if the primary season will continue on, or if one candidate in each party can have one last triumph and finally end the season. John Kasich was the first to begin the Wisconsin push, and promises to drop out and endorse the winner should be not be the victor himself. Although no other candidate made that sort of statement, the other three Republicans followed suit. On the Democratic side, Clinton and Biden are both campaigning there to prevent another Rust Belt win for Sanders. If Sanders wins Wisconsin, then he might become a powerful force in a brokered convention. If he cannot, that lessens his chances. All in all, Wisconsin is now a kingmaker.

Both final debates will be held in Wisconsin as a result. Both will be held in Green Bay, Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. Fox News will host the Republican debate, which will be led by Bill O'Reilly. The Democratic debate will be hosted by PBS, and Judy Woodruff will be the main monitor. No other debates will be sanctioned by either party after this one, so the candidates are expected to make it count.

Up Next: The Final Republican and Democratic Debates.

[Bigby]

That wasn't the poll but the actual results. And I imagine that Independents and Democrats would not vote as heavily for Kasich in the primary here since there are options that are not Fitzgerald. Plus Rubio's win IS seen as an upset.

[Bigby]

Final Republican Debate, Hosted by Fox News.

Green Bay, Wisconsin - March 30th, 2016.

"Greetings, America. I'm your host, Bill O'Reilly, and I'm here to host the final Republican Presidential debate. We're live from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. We're down to 4 candidates, and they won't get another official chance to debate against each other, so they gotta make it count! Now, how about we begin the main attraction?"

Issues Discussed: Right-to-work laws, the Stock Market, Affirmative Action, the 2nd Amendment, Fair Trade, Sanctuary Cities, Iran, Yemen, Abortion, and the Influence of the Tea Party.

Performance by Candidate:

Rubio: It seemed that Rubio was more prepping himself for the general election, but he still performed well. Considering that Cruz was the only candidate to attack him in a significant manner and that he is the frontrunner, most political analysts believe that he can afford to do so. At least the majority of the audience believed, according to a post-debate Fox News poll, that Rubio was not flip-flopping and remained "consistent." Once again, he gave mainstream conservative views with an articulate delivery. What was interesting was one of the fair trade responses he gave, as he had not been quizzed on trade excessively. Rubio stated that he was open to raising tariffs to protect American jobs, as long as it was combined with his plans to lower taxes, something that the establishment has been wary of. A few moderate commentators openly sneered at this, but the crowd was much more receptive. Although O'Reilly was worried that this was "veering off topic," Rubio tied his Stock Market response to the issue of trade. He did admit that the Stock Market was improving, as the Dow had reached 17,000 again for the first time in 2016, the chaos of the global market "is proof that we need to safeguard the American people against the sporadic influence of China and other currently unpredictable variables." Though many Tea Party voices complained that no other candidate attacked Rubio, and that he only really challenged Cruz, the audience was pleased with Rubio's performance. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement.)

Cruz: The Texas Senator was weighed down by the unified opposition against him. He received numerous cheers from the audience, but the unwillingness of the other three candidates to attack each other took its psychological toll on Cruz. He became increasingly zealous about his role as the Tea Party voice, almost sounding hyperbolic at certain points. For example, while none of the other candidates disagreed with him when he came out against Obama's continued efforts to get gun control measures passed, they visibly held back a sneer at what became a gaffe. Cruz commented that "the only people who want to restrict the right to bear arms are just a bunch of snooty, self-righteous, Northeastern 'Starbucks Americans.'" Cruz did not get booed at by the Midwestern, mostly conservative audience, but this caused a huge uproar in social media and the entertainment industry. Although it was a lot less of a gaffe, Cruz got a little heated when discussing Iran and Yemen. He insinuated that Obama was "letting Iran take over Yemen because he is too much of a craven shrimp to dare tell a Muslim no." A Muslim audience member did not take kindly to this. He heckled Senator Cruz, who began to yell back. O'Reilly had to stop both men from their dispute so the debate could continue. Though the more conservative commentators were obviously more favorable to Cruz, most reporters agreed that the rest of Cruz's performance was excellent. However, those two gaffes, the united opposition against Cruz, and Cruz's own anger block him from gaining valuable undecideds. If he is to win Wisconsin now, he will require the full force of the state's Tea Party. (Larry Sabato Rating: Decline.)

Kasich: Kasich had promised that he was still prepared to campaign for himself and that Wisconsin was his last stand, but it eerily seemed that he was there to instead defend Rubio and attack Cruz. Kasich was still the obvious moderate voice of the four, which served his role as what Tea Partiers considered to be "the anti-Cruz agent" well. He hammered Cruz repeatedly for his answers. When Cruz made the "Starbucks Americans," remark, Kasich replied with this: "If we continue to say things like that, we will lose, Senator. We can't claim to be for all Americans when we make such bigoted remarks." Kasich definitely received more praise on that remark than Cruz did for his. O'Reilly did not seem to notice, but many commentators pointed out after the debate that Kasich was nodding his head in agreement repeatedly whenever Rubio spoke. That only served to further raise questions on whether or not Kasich is already defecting to Rubio. Kasich's closing statement was a warning against extremism. "Look, we need a candidate who does stand on his principles, but we cannot afford a zealot. Unless we all want a third term for the Democrats, we have to show that we Republicans are not crazy. I am the best candidate to show that we are a reasonable party, and even if I am not picked, I hope the next sanest person is picked." (Larry Sabato Rating: Unsure.)

Christie: The Governor refused to attack Rubio as well, but it was still obvious that he was running for his own campaign. While still obviously an establishment candidate, Christie sought after the Cruz supporters as if he were a vulture. He was the most critical of the candidates in his answers on affirmative action. He was the most "Graham-like" candidate on foreign policy, a new term coined by Rachel Maddow to mean that he was rather hawkish without getting into potentially offensive terminology. He was later grilled by conservative commentators for his "flip-flopping" on gun control, but he attacked gun control activists without the demographics remarks Cruz made. Instead, he attacked the Obama administration for trying to suppress gun rights, as "even liberals want to keep their guns." He received significantly less press than Cruz for his guns answer, but the news was much more positive and less mocking for him than it was for Cruz. Christie is still a longshot candidate, but at the very worst, he can make or break it for Rubio and Cruz. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement.)

Synopsis: Rubio will likely remain the frontrunner. As he pulls away from Cruz, he is more likely to keep his status as the consensus candidate and thus the nominee. Cruz's gaffes and the unified force against him most likely won't cost him any of his current supporters, but it will make it an uphill battle to expand his base. If Kasich wins the primary rather than Rubio, his oddly pro-Rubio debate performance will become even more odd. Christie refused to attack Rubio as well, but it was certain that he was still running for himself. Once the people of Wisconsin cast their votes, it will either prove the current mood of the debate right or wrong.

Up Next: Final Democratic Debate,

[Bigby]

Final Democratic Debate, Hosted by PBS.

Green Bay, Wisconsin - March 31st, 2016.

"Hello, and welcome to the Final Democratic Presidential debate. I am Judy Woodruff of PBS, and I am here at the Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The Republicans held their debate here last night, and now the Democrats will do the same. Wisconsin has become a pivotal kingmaker, or maybe even a queenmaker, in this primary season, so let's not wait any longer."

Issues Discussed: The state of the Economy, Healthcare, Iran, Yemen, Abortion, Religious Freedom, Income Inequality, Term Limits, and the issue of Authenticity.

Performance by Candidate:

Biden: According to columnist Charles Krauthammer, Biden "is the Rubio of the Democratic Party." What he means by that is that Biden is mainline, but articulate, and has been able to dominate as the consensus candidate. After tonight's debate, many would agree with Krauthammer's assessment. Like Rubio, it seemed that the Vice President was using this last debate as a study guide for the general election. Unlike Rubio, Biden had to deflect questions from Clinton and Sanders, especially due to his status as the sitting VP. He was quizzed the hardest on foreign policy, where Obama's performance had been seen as poor for some time now. Viewers agree that he held his own, particular on the Iran Deal. He received much applause for his answer. "What the Republicans forget is that if Iran does break the deal, then we have no problem restoring sanctions. I will absolutely be willing to enforce the deal, but we have to abandon partisan bickering and actually get reform done. That goes for several other issues as well." Also like Rubio, he was able to state his party's intentions without devolving into gridlock-laden language. For example, his answer on abortion: "I am personally pro-life, but I understand from a legal standpoint that abortion is the law of the land, and we should respect that. I want to reduce abortions and make the ones we have safer, but I won't let my Catholicism interfere with the law." Many Republicans and a sizable amount of moderates and independents were at least somewhat ambivalent of that answer, but many liberals approved. Despite Biden having a gaffe-prone reputation, he remained professional and gaffe-free, also benefiting him. Biden will likely retain frontrunner status, but it is uncertain if he can avoid a brokered convention. Either way, he was the most adored candidate, so he won the debate. (Larry Sabato Rating: Slight Improvement.)

Clinton: Hillary's night in Wisconsin started out unclear, but became an objective disaster with one fatal gaffe. Although her actual stances were more moderate than Biden's or Sander's, her terminology was so flooded with partisan language that even liberals began to think it was mere pandering. Phrases such as "the war on women," "the one percent," and "right-wing conspiracy" were said repeatedly. However, that was not what many considered to be "the end of Hillary." Her fatal mistake was confirming what many conservatives criticized her for: entitlement. When Woodruff asked her if she expected to become President, part of Hillary's response was: "... no matter what the Republicans say, no matter what Biden or Sanders says, and no matter what the media says, I am entitled to the Presidency. I deserve it, and I ought to get it-" When she realized what she uttered, the room went totally silent. That silence was interrupted by universal booing. After the debate, the media, both left-wing and right-wing, had a field day with it. During the rest of the night, Clinton refused to take any other question. It is the end of Hillary Clinton. (Larry Sabato Rating: Suicide.)

Sanders: The Vermont Senator was himself. Unlike Hillary, he was able to convince more moderate viewers to support him despite having more left-wing views. After Hillary's fatal gaffe, he received a full audience against Biden. He promised to defend progressive causes, but despite saying similar phrases before, did not once utter "the one percent" or anything similar. Some analysts argue that he did not want to seem similar to Hillary, while others argue that he was also preparing for the general election. Either way, that strategy worked. Like Biden, he also avoided any major gaffes, so he has a chance to face the Republicans as well. (Larry Sabato Rating: Improvement.)

Synopsis: Though the fear of a brokered convention still looms over the Democratic Party, their two most likely candidates, Biden and Sanders, are both in tolerable positions. Hillary had a chance during the first half of the debate, but her "entitled" gaffe set the final nail in the coffin for her campaign. The audience did not respond well to it, and neither did the media. This Wisconsin debate has cemented the Democratic primaries as a Biden vs Sanders fight.

Up Next: Wisconsin primary, Updated Maps and Delegates, and Candidate Concessions.