Will California vote to the right of Texas in our lifetimes?

[RINO Tom]

Let's go back one lifetime, using the above example of 60 years.  While the parties have changed drastically over that timeframe, we still largely had a "left-leaning" Democratic Party in 1962 that saw itself as a defender of "disadvantaged" groups in society, and we still had a "right-leaning" Republican Party that saw itself as a defender of "traditional values" and hierarchical structures.  In other words, there is no serious argument that the two parties have made any seismic shifts on an ideological axis since 1962, even with the Civil Rights Era and everything after it.

With that said, how many groups vote even roughly similar to how they did in 1962??  I came up with POSSIBLY the following...

- Small business owners (GOP)
- Rural Protestants in the Plains states (GOP)
- Middle-class urban residents in the Northeast (DEM)
- Jewish voters (DEM)
- Non-White union voters (DEM)
- Non-White Catholics (DEM)

I might be missing some here and there, but these are groups that pretty clearly have stuck with their parties (for the most part).  However, I don't have data on this.  The reasons these voters have stuck with their parties go WAY deeper than the current political climate ... they're all a lot more philosophical.  So, I would say identifying groups that vote for their party for a "longer-lasting" reason vs. a more "contemporary" one is a good start.  Someone who hates the GOP because of Trump is probably one of the weaker prospects for a "lifelong liberal," and someone who hates the Democrats because of mask mandates is not likely to be a "lifelong conservative," as those things are flavor of the month in the grand picture of things.

I think you will continue to see self-sorting over the next decade or even 15 years, but I think our current political climate (both the left and the right) will discredit itself to the voters of the 2040s and 2050s.  People will look back on this era as childish and impractical, with both parties looking like deranged ancestors of their current incarnations ... I just don't know what those future incarnations will look like.  I think California will see a stall in population growth in the near future, followed by reform and a successive population explosion again, while I think Texas will likely continue to see growth at the current pace.  By 2060 or so (when I indeed hope to still be alive), I could easily see these states having similar ENOUGH demographic makeups that a "favorite son effect" or an event geographically unique enough like the Farm Crisis in 1988 could push CA to the right of TX in a one-off election.