Is the GOP suburban erosion temporary? (user search)
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  Is the GOP suburban erosion temporary? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is the GOP suburban erosion temporary?  (Read 6726 times)
RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,069
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Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« on: November 15, 2018, 05:35:35 PM »

Yes? Everything in politics is temporary

Now please don’t quote me on this because Atlas likes to tell me otherwise, but I don’t think West Virginia or any of the other rural places Dems used to do well in are coming back

Most of them probably aren't coming back in the next 50-60 years/our current party system ... but that doesn't mean "never."  Alabama voting Republican ever 100 years ago would sound nothing short of impossible, and look at it today.  That was the point of Mumph's post, IMO.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,069
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2018, 11:52:35 AM »

Short term: Yes
Long term: No

If you look across the Anglosphere, one can see a broad realignment; the centre right coalition is downscaling and the centre left coalition is upscaling. This suggests that the trend is being caused by demographic and social factors that are out of the GOP's control, and that there is little to nothing for Republican pols can do to reverse it. They should instead be focusing on "the path of least resistance" as NC Yankee likes to put it, and work on maxing out the WWC and winnable Hispanics.

That said, Donald Trump is particularly toxic to the white, educated, prosperous, nominally religious sort that the GOP used to own. He has driven away votes that should still be winnable for his party. It wouldn't surprise me if you saw a modest Republican recovery in suburbia in the first couple of cycles after his presidency ends.

I would be surprised if such a recovery didn't change any realignment longterm, though.
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