RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,074
Political Matrix E: 2.45, S: -0.52
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« on: May 17, 2018, 09:25:03 AM » |
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It's the "obvious" answer, but I think it's true: Asian Americans will remain solidly Democratic during the Trump Era and probably for 1-2 cycles afterward. However, I think - by far - the most realistic outcome of the next 30-40 years is that Democrats DO eventually achieve a huge Electoral College advantage and start actually getting some serious governing power, leading to a bit of liberal overreach, specifically on economics. This is inevitably going to cause at least a few economically moderate and/or affluent Democratic leaners to defect, just as overreach of economic conservatism caused defections from the GOP in the 1930s among some of their more working class supporters. When will this happen? Honestly, I defer to Technocratic Timmy, as I think his theories about such a realignment are very plausible. I would make this total guess as to how Asians vote (actual votes in bold):
2012: 73% DEM, 26% GOP in a Democratic win 2016: 65% DEM, 29% GOP in a GOP win 2020: 76% DEM, 23% GOP in a Democratic win over Trump 2024: 78% DEM, 21% GOP in a Democratic re-election 2028: 69% DEM, 29% GOP in a Democratic successor's win (ala 1988 in reverse) 2032: 61% DEM, 37% GOP in a GOP win 2036: 55% DEM, 44% GOP in a GOP re-election
2032 would kind of represent the "my parents hated the GOP, but it seems to have really changed" type election, as the GOP would run a less culturally divisive, "check on the out-of-control liberal economic policies of the Democrats" type campaign and benefit from fatigue over one-party rule, and 2036 would represent a younger generation of Asian Americans (who are also more assimilated) being very open to a more culturally and socially moderate GOP that is also handily winning its re-election bid.
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