The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[RINO Tom]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

Not exactly a substantive response...

[RINO Tom]

> Saying state with split government that's always close is a solid state for one party...

[RINO Tom]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

Not exactly a substantive response...

Certainly more substantive than a fantasy where New Hampshire is a tossup.

It's closer to a tossup than what TN Vol paints it as, but yes it has the slightest of D tilts.

[RINO Tom]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

[RINO Tom]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

Fine, then I think you're putting too much weight on Obama era polarization.  WV may vote to the right of KS now, but it has a deeply Democratic tradition and huge Dem infrastructure there.  It'd be much more likely to flip to a moderate Democrat than a state like KS that has such a deep Republican heritage (it hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to DC in over 80 years).  Just my opinion.

[RINO Tom]

See Bruce Rauner's election - a moderate Republican in a low turnout election (which would probably require a Democrat that is both unappealing personally and not liberal enough to energize the base).