Only if Gillibrand steps down to run for Gov in 2018, which is being talked about, does Pataki or a GOP have a chance at the Senate from NY.
Even then, I doubt it. It seems the Obama era has ushered in voting patterns where certain states (Utah, Alabama, Oklahoma, etc. on the GOP side, New York, California, Hawaii, etc. on the Dem side) simply have enough people who think "Vote D" or "Vote R" on election day to the point where they'll be electing only that party's politicians to go to DC for the foreseeable future. I think it's sad, but then again I'm a moderate hero.