Will Landrieu lose by a bigger margin than Blanche Lincoln?

[KCDem]

75% of the early vote is white compared to 65% for the jungle primary. Landrieu will be lucky to break 35%.

[KCDem]

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/11/early_voting_dec_6.html

Landrieu is screwed. She'll be lucky to break 30% at this rate.

[KCDem]

And Landrieu is getting desperate...

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http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/in-mary-landrieu-ad-congressman-says-obama-will-be-impeached

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http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/landrieu-radio-ad-cassidy-endorsed-documentary-that-said-sla

[KCDem]

^ Wouldn't that ad backfire? "The President needs you to have his back, now more than ever". I'm thinking that would be an ad to motivate the black electorate to vote, not to persuade the critical white Democratic vote which she's collapsing with.

I think her campaign has given up on the whites and is now just hoping for massive black turnout. The early vote numbers show this hope is false.

[KCDem]

I've been looking over the early voting statistics published on the Election Division's website. The early vote isn't significantly lower than during the November 4th jungle primary. The bad news for Mary is that the more Republican-friendly the parish is, the more the early vote numbers have held up. Also, the black vote has cratered. This suggests that Mary really did believe she could win outright on November 4 and was pushing very hard in the early vote, while Republicans were already preparing for a runoff. Now, white turnout is up across most parishes in the early vote and it seems Mary's fate is increasingly ugly.

Prepare for a Blanching.