2014 US Congressional Election Results

[KCDem]

Well, we got Maffei by 20 points. That was good enough for me, even if getting Slaughter as well would have been even better... I wonder if Maggie Brooks would have won in a midterm or if the under the radar nature of Assini's campaign was what helped him get so close to such a massive upset.

LOL, I'm fine with conservadems losing D+5 districts by 20 points. A real Democrat will win next time. I'm glad Slaughter survived.

Maffei is anything, but conservadem. Only absolute idiots and loonies may think so. He is a typical "moderate liberal". Bad campaigner and politician in general - yes, bit conservadem - no way. He wasn't Barrow or McIntyre or Matheson, even less - Larry McDonald. They REALLY were conservadems))))

I think I'll take my idea on who is conservative and liberal from someone who doesn't have his views skewed by his government's absurdity.

[KCDem]

If the entire H of R reflected the delegations of CA, OR, IL, NY, MD, CT, RI, MA, and VT, Nancy Pelosi would be Speaker for Life.

If only...

[KCDem]

The fact that Inhofe did better than Lankford, even if only incrementally, is a disgrace.

Why? Inhofe is a great statesman.

Mods please ban.

[KCDem]

^per the exit poll:

Among black voters

Graham: 6% (4% with women, 10% with men)
Hutto: 89% (92% with women, 83% with men)

Scott: 10% (7% with women, 16% with men)
Dickerson: 88% (91% with women, 83% with men)

Among white voters

Graham: 74% (73% with women, 74% with men)
Hutto: 19% (22% with women, 16% with men)

Scott: 82% (78% with women, 85% with men)
Dickerson: 18% (20% with women, 15% with men)

These racial crosstabs make sense in the context of how Dickerson and Hutto performed statewide. While Hutto lost by 15.48% and Dickerson by 24.04%, both won a similar number of raw votes. Hutto only won 21,350 more raw votes statewide than Dickerson. Hutto garnered 38.78% of the vote, while Dickerson won 37.09%. According to the exit poll, Scott marginally improved upon Graham's performance with blacks (10% to 6%) it was Graham's underperformance with whites that accounts for his smaller margin. Almost all these dropoff whites voted for third parties while Hutto only outperformed Dickerson by the barest of margins among whites. Hutto's larger raw vote can be explained almost entirely by a consolidation of African American support.

[KCDem]

^As Vosem says, if the exit poll is to be believed 4% of blacks voted for Hutto while also voting for Scott. According to the exit poll, blacks made up 26% of the electorate, or about 322,420 votes out of 1,240,075 cast. Those 4% Hutto/Scott blacks would be about 12,897 votes that Hutto nets over Dickerson statewide which would get him from 459,583 to 472,480. Hutto wins 1% more of the white vote than Dickerson, winning him an additional 8,557 votes to get to 481,037. This is only 104 votes off from his actual total of 480,933.

So yes, that explains the difference in raw vote between Dickerson and Hutto. The difference in margin, on the other hand, is explained by the presence of third parties that almost uniformly make up the difference between Graham and Scott's raw numbers. This can be seen pretty much across the entire state with the difference in margin expanding the whiter (and more Republican) the county is. I haven't run an r-value correlation but I would expect it to be fairly significant. This makes sense given Ravenel's status as a former Republican and the stronger showing of the Libertarian candidate in the Hutto-Graham race.

[KCDem]

Cassidy leads 64.7-35.3 with 0.2% in. Looks like my prediction will be accurate.

[KCDem]

Caldwell is at 100% reporting and Cassidy wins 75-25. Landrieu is down 3 from November 4. So, if trends hold, 38% statewide.

[KCDem]

Landrieu outperforms expectations!!!