NBP/NPN (SD): Rounds leading by 13

[KCDem]

NBP/NPN, July 23-28, 2014:
Rounds: 43%
Weiland: 30%
Pressler: 14%
Howie: 4%


This appears to be an independent poll.

While Rounds has a continuous, clear lead in this senate race, he should be concerned about one thing: The last poll to show him with 50% or more support, aside from that crappy yougov poll, was all the way back in February. If Pressler's/Howie's support drops and goes disproportionately to Weiland, this race will become (a lot) closer than it should be, unless Rounds can suck some current Weiland voters out of the Weiland column.

The 50% rule isn't really a thing. Margin matters a lot more, and since SD doesn't have a runoff for the GE, Rounds will win this. It may be closer than expected but follow the money and you'll have your winner. Neither the DSCC nor the RSCC are spending here because Rounds will win by double digits and Weiland has no path to victory.

[KCDem]

Why on earth would Weiland drop out in favor of a candidate polling less than half his numbers? I get the theory that Weiland voters will gravitate towards pressler more than vice-versa, but I want to see how that plays out in practice once Pressler becomes the de facto Dem candidate.

IF Presssler's numbers declined the way 3rd party candidates usually do near Election Day, AND IF Weiland were to pick up the lion's share of them (Pressler voters seem as anti-Rounds as anti-Dem/Obama; most of his voters probably know Pressler backed Obama, right?), then that and a little luck MIGHT give him a ray of hope.

Highly improbable, sure, but at least a better chance than Pressler winning.

This. Pressler stands no chance in a two-way matchup.