Since we are exactly 222 days out, let's do a comparison of 2 metrics (job approval and h2h polling) between Bush, Obama, and Trump per RCP.
Bush 2004
Approval: 49.2%
Election polling: Bush+1.9
Obama 2012
Approval: 47.7%
Election polling: Obama+5.0
Trump 2020
Approval: 47.2%
Election polling: Biden+5.8
Biden 2024
Approval: 39.9%
Election polling: Trump+1.0
What's interesting is the polling at this point in mid Spring tends to be some of the most accurate of the final result in incumbent races.
Bush overperformed but still almost lost thanks to Ohio, Obama and Trump underperformed but insulated in the swing states.
