Trump wins, probably the same result in the electoral college.
In 2016, Hillary got 48% of the vote and Trump got 46%
In 2020, Biden got 51% and Trump got 47%
Biden's victory came from people who voted third party or stayed home in 2016 because "emails". Primarily the latter.
The number of Trump-Biden voters is practically non-exisitant.
You're forgetting the number of voters that were Romney- almost Clinton voters out there, little different from actual Romney-Clinton voters except they held nose for Trump in one more GOP vote. Probably many of those ditched in 2018 and were solidly for Biden.
