Paul Wellstone’s plane crash in 2002 leads to Norm Coleman becoming Senator, which probably wouldn’t have happened, and then Coleman contesting his loss in 2008 for months, depriving Obama of a filibuster-proof majority for several months considering Wellstone would have won in a landslide in 2008, with implications for Obama’s agenda and health care reform.
Oddly enough, Mel Carnahan not crashing in 2000 likely just replaces the trajectory of three Senators (including his wife) and still loses in 2018, spitting us to Hawley anyway.