Clinton/Kaine: 279 EV, 50% pv
Kasich/Cruz: 259 EV, 47% pv
Kasich tries Trump's tactics, but he's too nice and overly boring to completely pull it off. Also Hillary does the smart thing and uses the Obama strategy to the fullest, which means minority turnout does a lot better. The 1976-esque situation flips back to the 1988 sorta landslide it literally would've been if Trump weren't there. Kasich barnstorms Wisconsin and follows a Pat Toomey sort of strategy to flip Pennsylvania...but he can't quite flip New Hampshire, Michigan, or Florida.
Closest StatesNew Hampshire D+0.1Wisconsin R+0.4
Pennsylvania R+0.5
North Carolina R+1Florida D+2 (tipping point)