GA/NC/VA and 2020/2024

[Mr. Smith]

Usually, since 2000, North Carolina always voted anywhere between 4-6 points to the right of Virginia (and has been right of the commonwealth since 1996).

And since 2004, it's voted left of Georgia by 4-5 points.

Logically then, 2016 should've looked like either: Georgia goes R by 8-9 points, NC at 3.6, and Virginia goes D at 2-3 points like 2012

Or it should've looked like Georgia goes R by 5 points, NC is either D/R by less than point , and Virginia at the 5.4 D mark

But for whatever reason, NC was only 1.5 points different from Georgia and 9 points from Virginia...both of those states swung by 1.5 points D while NC went the opposite direction.

The last time there was a switchup, there were 2 cycles where NC was the furthest right, but the grasp slipped in 2004 when Georgia became the furthest right. (Besides 1964-1972, and 1988 it was the other way around usually)

So come my questions. Will 2020 see North Carolina be precisely in between Georgia and Virginia again? Will North Carolina's alleged inelasticity mean that Georgia becomes the middle-man next cycle or 2024?

[Mr. Smith]

I'm gonna put up the actual margins now just for better context, going from 1992 because that was the last year Virginia was the furthest right of the trio.

Year                VA             NC             GA      NC-VA Difference    NC-GA Difference


1992:         + 4.4 R        + 0.7 R     +0.3 D         3.7 R                        1 D
1996:         + 2 R           + 4.7 R       +1.2 R        2.7 D                       3.5 D
2000:         + 8.1 R        +12.8 R     + 11.7 R       4.7 D                       1.1 D
2004:         + 8.2 R        +12.4 R     + 16.6 R       4.2 D                      4.2 R
2008:         + 6.3 D        + 0.3 D      + 5.2 R            6 D                       5.5 R
2012:         + 3.8 D       + 2 R         + 7.2 R         5.8 D                       5.2 R
2016:         + 5.4 D        + 3.6 R      + 5.1 R            9 D                       1.5 R