1976 SEN Races Round 1: California

[Mr. Smith]

1976 isn't just wacky because of how odd the Presidential Race turned out, but also because there were no coattails.

If the PV is accounted, then 2016 had minimal coattails that rode Hassan over the line and gave Duckworth a much greater margin than expected and 2000 saw decent coattails too.

(If not, 2000 must've had record negative coattails, and Trump was a drain that cost Nevada and New Hampshire.)

Even stranger, the coattails were negative if only accounting for incumbents and not retiring seats.

With that out there, here's California

[Mr. Smith]

Personally I'm staying out of this one, I'm not sold on cross-voting for Hayakawa, but he's the type of Republican I wouldn't lose any sleep over if they won, probably the last one until Tom Campbell in 2000.

But Tunney the sellout Moderate Hero who can't bother to show up to work? Uh, no, he doesn't have my vote.

[Mr. Smith]

bump

[Mr. Smith]

Final result

S.I. Hayakawa 52.4%
John Tunney [inc] 33.3%
Abstain 14.3%

R+15.8% from Actual Result.