She’s spent her entire career until this year in San Francisco. She questioned the soon to be CIA Director on LGBT issues and wants to shut down the government over DACA. These kind of political instincts won’t translate nationally. The comparisons to Obama make no sense given that he was senator of a Midwestern state and was raised by WWC family members.
I don’t think she wins Wisconsin or Pennsylvania (PA had similar turnout rates to 2012 with Blacks). ME-AL, NH, and Florida are also question marks. If she does win it’ll be on the back of Trump’s foibles and will probably be a 2012-esque PV victory and a weaker EC map.
This is coming from a Harris Senate voter last year.
I can tell you that Harris can, and probably will, win Pennsylvania. 2018 will tell us for sure how much PA has turned on the President. If both Wolf and Casey win by Northam Virginia 2017 numbers, then I think any Democrat will be able to take the state back, Harris especially since she will probably up black turnout in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
And regarding your first points, I really don't see how any of that will hurt her, If anything it will help her standing with minorities. She's playing it smart. No Democrat is going to force a government shutdown. It's far too risky.
We’ll see. She’s likely running against Pence (A 71 year old dementia ridden obese man who’s gotten fatter in the last year + hates the job + is hated by DC likely doesn’t live or stay in office past 2019 imo).
These moves will help her in the primaries. But a lot of Swing voters in the Midwest don’t care much for the issues she’s been prioritizing. Also nominating a black person who isn’t a historic first isn’t a guarantee for Obama 2012-2008 margins and turnout with black voters. It can even backfire a bit if it’s viewed as a shameless pandering play.
True, but Obama margins aren't needed to flip Michigan...just something less embarrassing than Hillary's Wayne County margins. And the whole "smart on crime" approach is excellent material there.
Really, she only needs Florida + one of MI/AZ/WI/PA/GA/NC, and atm FL and MI are quite doable.
