I would vote for Manchin for several reasons. One, is that he's a somewhat conservative Democrat, which I am at heart. Two, is that he is socially conservative, and I would applaud the Democratic Party for nominating a candidate of that nature.
How this contest would turn out in the long run is interesting. Would I be happy with my vote in 4 years? Would the average red avatar who voted Manchin against Collins this year be happy in 4 years. (I'm assuming that this would be a vote for President.)
Jimmy Carter was a far more liberal PRESIDENT than he was a CANDIDATE, but he was a far less liberal President than what the liberal wing of the Democratic Party wanted. The irony of Carter was that he got far more of his legislative agenda through than what people think. There was no gridlock during the Carter years. What there WAS, however, was a lot of compromise legislation, and a lot of arm-twisting that got legislation through that represented compromises that pleased few.
Carter would have been reelected had John Anderson not run the kind of 3rd Party bid he ran, and had George Bush not been the candidate. Carter ran strongly in the South, but he narrowly lost states because he lost his religious advantage; he had waffled on abortion, and he was running against a candidate (Reagan) who had appeal with Southern White Evangelicals long before Carter was a declared candidate. That, plus his Southern constituency was at odds with the National Democratic Party on other issues; they were less pro-union, and they were more hawkish.
On the other hand, the bulk of people who elected Carter in 1976 were Northern liberals and labor union members, as well as blacks and Hispanics (who were nowhere near as critical a bloc in 1976 as they are now). Carter made efforts to govern to his base, but because so much of his election in 1976 was due to winning 10 of 11 Southern states, he had to make concessions. In the end, he pleased no one.
Such would be the lot of Joe Manchin if he were actually a Democratic nominee for President. He'd almost certainly invite a credible 3rd party challenge, and that challenge would likely come from Bernie Sanders, himself. Indeed, Manchin would end up being a modern John W. Davis (who also hailed from WV). But if he were to actually win, he'd be a GREAT President if he made up his mind in advance that he'd be a one-term President. His Presidency might well produce wiser policy initiatives than we've seen over the years, but there's no way he'd be popular over time.
The Democrats back then had more spine than they do now, thanks for the reminder.
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