Are Democrats in trouble if Hillary's campaign collapses?

[Mr. Smith]

Again, you keep on using that map, when it doesn't prove anything. How could 1976 be more relevant to 2016 than 1988 was? 1988 wasn't even a landslide. You may as well just take out 2000 and 2004 as well. Your map shows Georgia as the same shade as NC, even though NC went Democrat in 2008, and Georgia hasn't gone Democrat since 1992.

Also the West Coast voted for Ford in 1976

[Mr. Smith]

He should've just used 1992-Present since that is when the realignment we have began.

Which would look like:

Deep Blue for 6/6 Republican
Dark Blue for 5/6 Republican
Light Blue for 4/6 Republican
Green for 3 Republican/ 3 Democratic
Light Red for 4/6 Democratic
Dark Red for 5/6 Democratic
Deep Red for 6/6 Democratic

As is, this gives the Democrats 281 built-in, even if Clinton really does lose Colorado and Florida..

And if we assume only the Deepest Red are for sure, then Clinton will be at 242 EV,...leaving 28 votes to grab, and Florida should be doable.


Whereas the GOP have only 113 from the loyalist, and 219 built-in.


But this ignores so many things such as demographic changes and states' pet issues.

Nonetheless, this is more perfect by pbrower logic.

[Mr. Smith]

1992 was not a realignment election.  The elections we have had since 2008, and continued white flight into the GOP have made most of the states in the South won by Bill Clinton off-limits to Democrats. 

For the Northeast, it was.