Adlai Stevenson lost three other Southern/border states he won in 1952 (Kentucky, West Virginia, and Louisiana) and lost ground in others, yet somehow managed to flip Missouri in 1956. I can’t seem to find any explanation as to why. If anything you’d think Harry Truman’s presence as the incumbent president might have made it more likely to be the other way around, with Stevenson winning the state in 1952 but losing it in 1956 due to Ike’s popularity that managed to breach the Solid South and easily won the rest of the Midwest. Yet instead Ike narrowly won it in 1952 and narrowly lost it in 1956, the only state that flipped from him to Stevenson. This marked the only time Missouri was not a bellwether in the century between 1904 and 2004, making it an even stranger anomaly.
Does anyone know how or why this happened?
I think there was a rift between Truman and Stevenson in 52 so maybe this actually is what explains it.
Actually, the rift between Truman and Stevenson was in 1956--as Truman backed Averell Harriman of NY for the nomination.
Really, the slippage for Eisenhower in the overall Farm Belt vote was just enough to tip MO to Stevenson in 1956. Eisenhower's totals in the rural counties close to IA and KS slid significantly. Meanwhile, Stevenson held his margins in St. Louis and the Dixiecrat counties of SE Missouri to win the state.
The 1960 election was more of a repeat of 1952--as the rural margins trended back to Nixon. However, JFK got increased vote totals in St. Louis (city/county) and Kansas City to pull MO by a similar slim margin.
