Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,985
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« on: July 11, 2015, 01:06:51 PM » |
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Overall, the estimates are pretty good. I would agree that the 1976 percentage estimate for Carter would have been a little low. The black voter turnout then was probably not as high--only in 1984 when Jesse Jackson ran for President and a major GOTV effort in the South did the percentage start to approach the white population. This would explain why the Democrats continue to get 40+% of the vote in most Southern states even today.
I also think that Clinton's percentage in 1992 and 1996 are higher than the OP estimates--in a 2 way race. Perot's overall percentages in Mississippi were among the lowest in the country (in the 5-10 percent range)--but I am sure that his vote was almost exclusively white--so the 19-21% is probably close to the actual result.
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