New York 2010 Race

[Lunar]

Cuomo would embarrass Giuliani. 

And Guiliani won't run if he thinks he'll be facing anybody but Paterson.


It's most likely going to be Cuomo vs. Lazio with Lazio being embarrassed.  But it's possible Cuomo will not want to be governor of a state that's impossible to govern during a recession during a recession.

[Lunar]

Paterson will not be unopposed.

Look at Gillibrand, she was far less vulnerable and I think about eight Congressmen moved forward to challenge her. The only reason he hasn't had a primary opponent yet is that everyone thinks Cuomo will run [probably with Paterson retiring].

I do think there's a solid chance though, as I've repeatedly stated, that Cuomo may look at the economy and discover that being AG for another four years would help his long-term career prospects than trying to govern New York during that time.

[Lunar]

Gillibrand has a clear field. Obama has asked for that.

That's not true, yet.  Maloney is telling all of her colleagues she's going to run.

But the point is, NY politics is filled with so many overly-ambitious politicians that it's impossible that Paterson won't face a primary challenge.  He can only hope it'll be someone less intimidating than Cuomo.

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0609/Rangel_racial_polarization_if_Cuomo_runs.html

and here we go

[Lunar]

I mean, everyone banking on Paterson with such things is assuming that Paterson's numbers have bottomed out and will rise to some vaguely acceptable level.

Cuomo has a bad experience with challenging a previous establishment black candidate in a primary, so Rangel's remarks are especially cutting.