An African-American (R) Candidate is Bennet's First Opponent

[Lunar]

Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier has been mentioned as a potential candidate for Congress in Senate in 2010.

http://www.coloradostatesman.com/content/99772-fraziers-star-rises-gop

Few suburban officeholders in the metro area have received the kind of attention Ryan Frazier attracts. That may be because the 31-year-old, two-term, at-large Aurora City Council member has proven to be not your typical city official.

When Frazier spoke Feb. 4 at the weekly breakfast of the Arapahoe County Republican Men’s Club at the Cool River Café in Greenwood Village, he addressed far broader themes than the typical nonpartisan City Council land-use and zoning concerns.

“As Republicans who dare to actually be Republicans,” he said, “we must work for the people to create a responsible government that keeps taxes low, that fills holes in water systems, that protects their rights, that upholds the Constitution, that defends our country, that allows parents choice in their child’s education.”

Frazier’s rising star in Arapahoe County political circles belies his relative youth. In 2003, at age 26, he became the first Aurora City Council candidate to advertise on television. The ambitious, untried strategy paid off — Frazier defeated his closest rival by nearly 3,000 votes.

Four years later, Republican activists came out in force to raise $85,000 in campaign funds for Frazier’s re-election to the nonpartisan office.

The largest war chest for a council candidate in Aurora’s history was generated despite Frazier’s relatively moderate views on some social issues.

Last year, the up-and-coming Republican and small-business owner made news again when he co-authored the hotly debated “right to work” ballot measure. Had it succeeded, Amendment 47 would have amended the state Constitution to say union membership and the payment of dues or fees could not be mandated as a condition of employment.

Despite or because of Frazier’s close association with that controversial measure, the young politician has become an object of hope among Republican activists. Last year, his name was floated as a possible candidate for every office from Aurora mayor to Colorado governor.

In the wake of November’s Democratic sweep at the ballot box, Frazier has been mentioned as a potential challenger to recent Democratic U.S. Senate appointee Michael Bennet or to U.S. Rep. Ed Perlmutter in the competitive 7th Congressional District.

Over the span of less than six years, Frazier has gone from being an unknown City Council candidate to being a relatively high-profile partisan with high aspirations for the GOP.

In his speech to the Men’s Club, he focused largely on Republican rejuvenation in the face of defeat.

“In recent years, it is safe to say we have strayed from our course,” Frazier told more than 100 party activists and elected officials. “I think it is our responsibility to return back to a true course, to run our ship, to get back on track. ... It’s going to take a new generation of leadership to join our elder statesmen and stateswomen to lead our party forward.”

According to Frazier, recent Republican losses can be explained by the party’s tenuous hold on its principles and its failure to reach voters consistently in meaningful ways.

“Ultimately, we have to connect with people on things that matter — on pocketbook issues, safe communities, a government that works, taking care of our children and our seniors and American innovation,” he said. “When we connect, we win.”

After two disappointing election cycles, many Arapahoe County Republicans believe Frazier, a young, handsome and socially moderate black politician, may be just the kind of candidate the party now needs to help invigorate the base while attracting swing voters at all levels.

Frazier’s emerging role in the Republican Party is not without national context. The recent ascendency of 47-year-old Barack Obama and the election of Michael Steele, 50, the first African-American to chair the Republican National Committee, both occurred as the GOP was striving openly to attract more blacks and more young voters.

Nathan Chambers, chairman of the Arapahoe County Republican Party, sees Frazier as one of the new more promising players on the local political stage as the party prepares for 2010.

“First of all, Ryan’s youth is an attribute,” Chambers said. “I think Republicans and Democrats also are always looking for young talent. I think voters are particularly receptive to new faces right now. I do think his being black is helpful.”

Frazier has made a few waves while braving the political waters of name recognition. The city councilman incurred the wrath of union leaders, including some Aurora firefighters, when he became a lead advocate for Amendment 47.

During the intense battle over the measure last year, Frazier’s ethics were the subject of a television commercial that questioned a campaign contribution he received from a firm that had been awarded an Aurora city contract. Frazier was later cleared of any wrongdoing by a joint investigation of the Arapahoe and Adams county district attorneys’ offices.

Some have suggested the divisive, union-restricting measure provided slippery footing for a young politician on the rise. But, according to Chambers, Frazier’s willingness to take a potentially bridge-burning position is a large part of what makes him refreshing.

“Certainly, it was a political risk. He’s principled,” the Republican chair said.

Frazier may be taking much the same risk on social issues, which, in Arapahoe County, have often made or broken Republican primary candidates. Frazier was politely quizzed at the Men’s Club about his support for a proposal to grant domestic-partnership benefits to same-sex Aurora city employees.

“I believe marriage is between a man and a woman. Let me be very clear about that,” he said. “But when it comes to two people, consenting adults, who happen to share a household and happen to be in a loving relationship — whether you or I agree with that is beside the point — it’s their life. ... We believe in liberty. ... [Republicans] see the role of government as to protect our freedoms.”

Frazier has effectively crossed partisan lines in support of such positions. In 2006, he joined Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, in publicly endorsing Referendum I, a failed statewide measure that would have granted domestic-partnership rights to same-sex couples.

Chambers doesn’t think Frazier’s more liberal social stances or bipartisan efforts will stand in the way of his political aspirations as the party works to regain its position in a once-Republican county that now has more registered Democrats.

“Certainly, there will be some people in the Republican Party who will be troubled,” he said. “But I am of the view that the Republican tent is big enough to include people who have differences of opinion on these sensitive subjects. Ryan has developed a reputation as someone who is able to work with both sides of the aisle.”

When Frazier, a married father of three, was asked about his proudest accomplishments, the speaker was quick to mention the Academy at High Point, an Aurora charter school he helped found three years ago. When asked specifically about public policy, the councilman stressed his style and approach over specific initiatives.

“I pride myself on being the voice of the people, more than anything else, more than ordinances I supported or a policy I advocated for,” he said. “What has been most important is being a reasonable, common-sense voice on the City Council.”

[Lunar]

I also posted a thread about a black candidate (D), the speaker of the CO House or something like that, that was a top pick.  Instead you got an unknown EFCA-waffler like Bennet

This is also notable because it's not unreasonable that he could be Bennet's or Romanoff's challenger in 2010

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Not for Congress, surely. Defeat Ed Perlmutter? Not likely. That district voted 59% for Obama; Republicans don't win D+7 districts which are trending Democratic.

Maybe for Senate, but a City Councilman for Senate? Really?

Well, I was thinking more about the Senate (which is also Congress btw).  And have you taken a look at Colorado's slate?  He'd attract a lot of attention, and as an anti-union, socially moderate, minority candidate, he could potentially attract a lot of funds.  He could easily be the biggest name in the GOP primary.

It's happened before, perhaps you've heard of Joe Biden?

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Blacks can hardly ever be elected as Republicans.  That's because as soon as a black Republican comes out of the woodwork, the Democrats pull out the big guns.  If black Republicans became elected in significant numbers, it would end the Democrat Party's monopoly on black voters.

Them big guns would be more effective in a state with an old guard black political scene.  The first African-American Senator was a Republican from MA.

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...

Are all seven black people in Colorado politicians or something?

Basically.  The leaders of both houses of the state legislature and this guy.  The other four are unaccounted for.

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Not for Congress, surely. Defeat Ed Perlmutter? Not likely. That district voted 59% for Obama; Republicans don't win D+7 districts which are trending Democratic.

Maybe for Senate, but a City Councilman for Senate? Really?

Well, I was thinking more about the Senate (which is also Congress btw).  And have you taken a look at Colorado's slate?  He'd attract a lot of attention, and as an anti-union, socially moderate, minority candidate, he could potentially attract a lot of funds.  He could easily be the biggest name in the GOP primary.

It's happened before, perhaps you've heard of Joe Biden?

Also, Carl Levin.

[Lunar]

     He won't win, but he's exactly the kind of person the Colorado GOP needs to look to become relevant once more.

The interesting thing about Colorado is that labor isn't that powerful, but Bennet can't really go against EFCA if it looks like he might have a credible primary challenger.  He's far less known than Gillibrand or Burris, he's like Ted Kaufman running for reelection.  Anyway, if Bennet supports EFCA that will significantly hurt his general election fundraising*, especially a candidate like Frazier who has right-to-work as his signature issue, but if he opposes it, he could get primaried.  The candidate who primaries the more moderate Bennet in this scenario, by running to the more partisan/extreme ideology, would naturally be at an immediate disadvantage. Bennet may be able to waffle on the issue and hope his vote isn't needed.

I'm not worshiping the candidacy, but if it materializes, I wouldn't discount it.  What's Bennet going to say, that Frazier doesn't have the work experience he did when he was appointed from school supervisor or whatever?  I'm actually a fairly big fan of Bennet, I just think this might be something worth watching.  It's not just being anti-labor that would help Frazier, party donors could potentially see him as the future of their party in purple states.

If a real candidate emerges for the CO GOP, obviously this is all moot

*Note how Mark Udall has went from being a co-sponsor of EFCA in 2007 as a Representative  to refusing to state his position on it in 2009.

[Lunar]

For what it's worth, Aurora has nearly 300,000 people and he was elected citywide. He may only be a city councilor, but it's not as trivial as it could be. Still pretty trivial, like that Suffolk County legislator who wanted to run for Senate.

True.  But it's less trivial in Colorado where the GOP has no slate.  The Senate has tons of former nobodies in it.  Random attorneys, county attorneys and whatnot, and yes, former city councilmen Levin and formerly Biden

[Lunar]

he's launched an exploratory bid for the Senate guys. 

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/sen.-bennet-gets-first-gop-challenger-2009-04-15.html


I'm not horribly wrong ALL the time.

[quote]Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier is the first Republican to take a formal step toward the Colorado Senate race, launching an exploratory committee on Wednesday.

Frazier made the announcement at a Tea Party rally in Grand Junction.

“We have an amazing opportunity to create economic prosperity, reform our government and build a better future,” Frazier said, according to a release. “I stand before you to do my part.”

If he wins the GOP primary, Frazier would likely face appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), who replaced Interior Secretary Ken Salazar (D) in the Senate earlier this year.

Frazier is not the first choice of GOP leaders in Washington, but he brings a compelling profile to the race as a young African-American in a party that is trying to reinvent itself.

Raising money will be a major hurdle for Frazier, and no one will know how he’s doing for another three months, when second-quarter reports are due.

Other GOPers to keep an eye on include Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, attorney Dan Caplis and former Rep. Bob Beauprez.

Frazier recently defeated all of them at a straw poll in Douglas County — a conservative stronghold in the state.

On the Democratic side, there has been some talk that Bennet could face someone like former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in a primary.

[Lunar]

Err...I can't tell.  Would you call this guy charismatic?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKX89FPjgLE

Not that bad.  Listened to under a minute.  Unsurprisingly unpolished, but I see a fair bit of potential in there if he got some training from consultants.  His brain seems to be thinking faster than his mouth, which is usually a good sign, since all he would need to do is slow down.  That's what I needed to do in speech training.  Wouldn't surprise me if he turned out, with training, to be an effective debater, from that video and his previous quotations I've read.

I don't traditionally look up youtube videos of people I'm investigating for potential, to be honest.  There's a variety of reasons for why that's not necessarily a good predictor.



How charismatic was Salazar?

[Lunar]

Err...I can't tell.  Would you call this guy charismatic?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKX89FPjgLE

How charismatic was Salazar?

Well, Salazar was a statewide elected official with a ready base of voters (Latinos).

I don't think that African-Americans (which aren't that numerous in Colorado to begin with) will flock to an unknown Republican City Councilman. 

It's not like Colorado is the first and only state, starting at the end of 2008, to have African-Americans lead both the CO Senate and the CO House, or that the state has elected numerous other minorities such as multiple Mormon senators, the first openly gay freshman Congressman, or Ben Nighthorse Campbell, good point.  Thanks

[Lunar]

Mormons are 2% of the population in that part of the country, Colorado.  Not sure what you mean about the rest.  My point is that Colorado has been trend-setting all kinds of minority breakthroughs lately in the few years, from gays to blacks to Native Americans to Mormons to Hispanics.

Obviously he's not that big of a guy, but he was elected city-wide in a legitimately big city and he has a serious chance at being a serious contender (this is my argument).  We'll see.  Sometimes candidates emerge out of nowhere.  I've always bet my money on Bennet being a serious candidate, if not a national candidate, some day.  But, if the GOP takes him down this year, which is one of their most likely opportunities (after CT and NV), this guy may be the third most likely Republican to defeat a Democratic seat ... in the country  ... which isn't saying much because it's 2010.  But even NV isn't shaping up too well..

[Lunar]

Err...I can't tell.  Would you call this guy charismatic?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKX89FPjgLE

how about this guy?
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1459198594?bctid=19921233001

[Lunar]

How does that explain Frazier winning a straw-poll among conservative activists in a conservative county?

http://slapstickpolitics.blogspot.com/2009/03/colorado-2010-us-senate-race-update_30.html



Anyway, CO GOP's problem is the lack of feasible candidates, not the shunning of them and pushing for a "true conservative" like PA, at least that's how I think of it.  We'll see, Frazier is getting some serious encouragement from somebody higher up.

[Lunar]

Is Frazier really a moderate?
Since when moderates are talking so lightly about socialism and are invoking the ''boogeyman'' of the European Union?

He's not a economic moderate.  He championed [not just supported] a ballot initiative to get gays civil unions and also isn't sure if the government should outlaw abortion.

[Lunar]

Well, he worked his hardest to make that happen.  He has moderate views regarding a few of the issues that have scared away a lot of suburban Coloradan independents from the GOP.  I don't think I've ever said he was a centrist.

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We'll see.  There isn't really anyone else out there, just some pipsqueak attorneys.  If the money flows into Frazier's primary race, as such money might be doing for an electable, young, pro-business, Republican minority, things can happen.  Some Republican financial backers are interested in seeing the party move into the future, and there really isn't anybody else.

If Tancredo got into the race, which he won't, then you might be right or whatever.   I strongly disagree with the notion that he has no chance at the primary. 

[Lunar]

I hate the fact that being unwilling to take a stand on an issue is seen as a sign of moderatism / pragmatism.

How so?  In admitting that issues aren't black and white or in the Tedisco sense?

[Lunar]

This thread has nothing to do with the CfG until they start getting interested in those no-name attorneys.  They don't have an infinite amount of money and Frazier is as pro-business as you can get as of now [he militantly tried to get some anti-labor/pro-business reforms in Colorado and wants a Constitutional Amendment requiring a balanced budget, etc].  Now, in Nevada, it'd be interesting to bring them up because the only Republican in the race against Reid right now is a ridiculous former CfGer. 

moving on, this isn't the place to talk about Count Chocula.

[Lunar]

so, Colorado's a pretty square state, isn't it?

[Lunar]

so, Colorado's a pretty square state, isn't it?

Why, yes it is.  Fascinating.  I hear Bennet has an opponent already, what's up with 'dat?

[Lunar]

I don't think it's that bad if he he expresses a conflict between his beliefs in the role of government and what he thinks is wrong or whatever, when it comes to the issue of abortion, especially if he took the traditional Republican position on the issue he would be electorally helped in his next election (the primary).  I think that's about as moderate as you can get with abortion without dividing up individual trimesters.

Tedisco's case was ridiculous, everyone knows that