NY-20 Special Election

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Or he's betting on Murphy winning and using it to boost his own approval rating

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Safe D.

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I agree with Sam.  Tedisco's on track for a win by a thousand or so, maybe a few hundred more than that, but who knows until we get a few more numbers

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also, there are 5k absentee ballots to be counted too,

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oops, actually twice that:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0309/Will_the_race_be_called_tonight.html

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. -- Just chatted with Saratoga County Republican party chairman Jasper Nolan here at Republican Jim Tedisco's party.

Nolan said he doesn’t think that the race will be called tonight because there are about 10,000 outstanding absentee ballots left to be counted -- and he thinks that tonight’s margin will be within that number.

[Lunar]

A Murphy >70 precinct just came in.  Looks like there's some chance that the remaining Saratoga precincts trend Springs.  Hard to imagine it will be enough.

Tedisco 68,641 (50.5%)
Murphy 67,322 (49.5%)

Tedisco +1,319

But will those 10k absentees tilt GOP or Dem?

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Good god. I'm so pissed that my brother didn't vote now.

I swear if Murphy loses by one...

It'd be funnier if Tedisco lost by one.  Murphy started off with a +1 structural advantage since he could vote in the district while Tedisco couldn't.

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and Murphy storms into the lead.  what happened?

looks like the absentees could settle this

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we could be looking at a recount.

>160k turnout's pretty impressive (with absentees).

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I suspect we'll lose this in absentees. But at least it's not over yet.

it's not impossible that we could lose it in the absentees but win it in the recount, and then wait six months before Murphy can take his seat

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this is a lot closer than I expected.  Not surprising for the second most expensive special election in history, but still impressive.  Some of the counties had somewhat atypical results.

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I've been seeing different numbers about the absentee ballots.  538 claims there's 6,000 while a Republican official told Scorecard that there's 10k.

That makes a big difference.

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Will any side really be able to claim national momentum/mandate from a victory here?  I mean, they will, but will the media accept it?

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Politico is noting that Murphy's ridiculously large extended family in the district (hundreds of registered Republicans in it that supported Murphy in this race) could be greater than his margin of victory.

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I finally figured out the 6k-10k number thingy.

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So, the only disputes could come from whether or note the voter was valid, not her vote?

Although we can have lots and lots of fun disputing he votes of the absentee ballots.

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also note that some of Saratoga county has outdated touch screens


Fact 1: No one is currently in the lead.
Yes, Scott Murphy has a higher number on the AP's website. But I can not even stress to you how unofficial those numbers are. The process for gathering those numbers is riddled with potential errors:

Results are read off of machines by Person A to Person B who writes them down. Person B calls the BOE and reads - over the phone - the results to Person C at the BOE, who writes them down. Person C gives the sheet to person D who types them into a computer.

10 chances for error:
Person A misreads
Person A misspeaks
Person B mishears
Person B miswrites
Person B misreads
Person B misspeaks
Person C mishears
Person C miswrites
Person D misreads
Person D mistypes

I've seen numbers change by 500 votes in one precinct because of this "telephone game" style of election reporting. Starting tomorrow, these results will be reviewed an corrected at every stage. Look for swings in vote counts.

Fact 2: We don't know how many absentees there are going to be

I know the AP said, and then everyone repeated, that 5900 ballots are left to be counted. But this is flat out incorrect. 5900 ballots were received by Monday night by 7 of the 10 counties in the district. But over 10000 ballots were mailed out in those 7 counties, and any ballot postmarked timely can be accepted until April 7th if it was mailed in North America, or until April 13th if it was mailed elsewhere. I expect 1000 come in today alone. There is also the matter of the three counties who did not tell the AP anything about their absentee counts - depending which counties those are, the absentee count could double. Potentially there are over 15,000 absentees outstanding.

Fact 3: There are other ballots outstanding

No one seems to be mentioning that we have a system of provisional balloting in New York, Affidavit Ballots. There were surely hundreds, and probably thousands, of provisional ballots cast today. Any provisional ballot that is the result of an in-county move will count. Any provisional that is the result of an inept pollworker will count. Most others will not. These votes tend to favor Democrats, and they should not be ignored.

Fact 4: No Absentee Ballots have been counted yet

Absentee ballots (and provisional ballots) have been impounded, most likely by local sheriffs departments or the State Troopers, as a result of a lawsuit filed yesterday by New York Republican Chairman Joseph Mondello. They cannot be opened, because the parties want to be able to sue to knock off absentee voters who filled out the envelopes incorrectly, moved, or are otherwise ineligible, and they can not do that if the ballots have been opened.

Fact 5: We will not have an automatic recount, and probably will not have any recount

New York likes to do these things in one slow trudge. The initial canvass works like a recount, with lawyers from both sides reviewing every last thing the BOE does. The 2 county commissioners (one D, one R) vote on each questionable item, and if they lock the 4 state commissioners (2D, 2R), and if they lock, the ballot counts and can be sued on, although getting a judge to not throw out your case in NY is a lot harder than in MN. The BOE has I believe 45 days to certify, and this will most likely take every last one.


http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6179/ny20-the-facts-about-absentees

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also, while the military and senior ballots should favor Tedisco, there are also college students and people who work in NYC but have a second home in Southern NY-20...  it's really a crapshoot who will end up ahead.

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NRCC sent out this fundraising email:

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Talking Points Memo gets a hold of the GOP's, well, err, Talking Points Memo:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/04/nrcc_memo_ny-20_-_the_facts_of_the_case.php

NY-20: THE FACTS OF THE CASE

While the absentee and military vote count will not occur for several more days, we are confident that Jim Tedisco will ultimately become the next congressman from New York's 20th Congressional District. While a "top White House official" (read: Rahm Emanuel) took time off from his busy schedule of dealing with the economic crisis, the G-20 Summit in London, and managing the day-to-day operations of General Motors to claim that the outstanding absentee count somehow favors the Democrats that sounds an awful lot like wishful thinking.

With that being said, there have been a few inaccurate and incomplete portrayals of this closely contested election by some news outlets, including Politico.com and the Washington Post.

HERE ARE THE FACTS OF THE CAMPAIGN:

The vote count:

As the latest vote totals reflect, there still remain thousands of absentee and military ballots that have yet to be counted.
New York state has registration by party. This allows us to see which absentee ballots are being returned by both parties.
There is currently a Republican advantage among the absentee and military ballots that exceed the current Murphy lead. This is not a "model," but raw data.
It is now important to ensure that all lawful votes are counted.
The Democrat-held district that has performed well for Democrats in recent elections:

Democrats have made significant gains in the Northeast over the past few election cycles, including multiple pickups in similar Northeastern districts in places like New York, New Jersey, and all of New England.
President Obama carried New York's 20th Congressional District less than 150 days ago.
Former Congresswoman Gillibrand easily carried NY-20 by a margin of 62-38 percent despite facing a Republican challenger who spent $6 million trying to defeat her.
Eliot Spitzer carried the district by a margin of 57%-36% in 2006.
Chuck Schumer carried the district in 2004, as did Hillary Clinton in 2006.
Democrats continue to double-down on the Obama/Stimulus rhetoric:

In a district where President Obama's approval rating hovered around 70 percent, Democrats have essentially broken even despite repeated claims that Republican opposition to the stimulus would result in widespread voter rejection.
The public outrage over the AIG loophole in the stimulus package slowed Murphy's momentum.
This trend reversal serves as an indictment of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's decision to craft the stimulus bill in the dead of night and put it up for a vote without a single member of Congress having read the legislation. Murphy's early support for the bill quickly became a liability.
Both DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen and DNC Chair Tim Kaine doubled-down on the Obama/stimulus rhetoric last night in their statements despite a significant underperformance.
President Obama engaged in the race and couldn't put his candidate over the top:

Here are just a few examples of how President Obama's and Vice President Biden's endorsement and images were used in the final days of the campaign:

* DNC TV ad with Obama endorsing Murphy
* Biden radio ad for Murphy
* Biden robo call for Murphy
* Obama email onslaught for Murphy
* Multiple mailers from Murphy, DCCC, and labor unions featuring Obama
* Murphy TV ads with many references to Obama and support of his stimulus package and his economic policies.
* The Executive Director of the DCCC in a speech this weekend said that the race is "a referendum on the Economic Recovery Act and Barack Obama's policies."
CONCLUSION:

A Democrat Performing District:
Democrats have attempted to paint this election with a broad brush by simply pointing to the misleading voter registration numbers, but a closer look at the district does not legitimize the Democrats' faulty argument that this is a "Republican district." The fact is that this Democrat-held district was carried by a whole host of Democrat candidates in recent elections, including the President himself less than 150 days ago.

The AIG Stimulus Became a Liability:
With a 70 percent approval rating in the district, Scott Murphy's unrelenting support for President Obama's stimulus package went from being a net positive to a net negative in the wake of the AIG scandal. For the final two weeks of the election, Scott Murphy was on the defensive as he could not answer whether he blindly endorsed the stimulus bill without reading it (like every other Democrat member of Congress) or if he willfully supported the package knowing the AIG loophole existed. If last night's election was a referendum on President Obama's stimulus bill, the results are inconclusive at best.

[Lunar]

I still can't believe this is a Murphy win (thus far):




The GOP argument here about having the plurality of absentee ballots coming from Republicans is infantile.  A plurality of votes cast on election day undoubtedly came from registered Republicans and see what happened (as well as in 2008 during Kirsten's stomping victory)?

It's a crapshoot depending on what characteristics made a voter more likely to submit a vote as an absentee instead of polling booth and how that correlates to a Tedisco/Murphy preference.

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The Democrat's model predicts a 210 vote victory
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/democrats-predict-210-vote-vic.html

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The projections -- based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night -- show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco's only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes.

The Democratic projection puts the total number of absentee and military ballots at 5,584 with Murphy winning 2,864 and Tedisco taking 2,720. On election night, Murphy held a 65-vote lead -- 77,344 to 77,279.

Republicans insist that any such "projections" are not an appropriate gauge of what the eventual universe of absentee ballots will look like.

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Let's do some math, shall we? Number of absentees submitted by party:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904(includes Independents, Conservative Party, Independence Party, Working Families party)

Let's say Tedisco wins 70% of the Rep vote(reasonable), and Murphy gets 90% of the Dem vote(reasonable), and the "other" splits 50/50(again reasonable), Tedisco wins by 100 votes.

That's reasonable, but it's just a fucking mindless guess as to what the breakdown will be.  Those numbers could easily be adjusted to other reasonable numbers that would show Murphy gaining.  If we're using the district as a  base, Murphy did better among Independents.  Remember that Murphy ended up winning on election night despite the fact that far more Republican ballots were cast than Democratic ones.