NY-20 Special Election

[Lunar]

I predict whoever wins, wins by more than 5%

but not really

[Lunar]

Tedisco is really tanking on Intrade. He's down to 35.0 at the moment. Any particular reason?

His team is panicking, makes for poor publicity for internet dudes who read random articles.

Also, there has been an above-averagely-weird-tendency among the media to ignore pro-Tedisco news.  He's really sabotaged his own campaign, but all of the Gillibrand robocalls and third-party campaigns and stuff have been really over-covered while Guiliani robocalls and Tedisco's strong third party support have been fairly under-covered.  Outside of generic "liberal media" claims, I think the media stories have a strong distaste for Tedisco's mega-triangulating-politician image (as should everyone, but they are especially cynical) and they expect him to win anyway.  Thus every Murphy edge gets golden treatment.  

If I had an Intrade account, I'd put a few dollars (not more than $50) for Tedisco with those odds.  If someone actually made me put some money on my prediction instead of simply making a hopeful prediction, I'd probably give Tedisco a slightly lead.  But since Murphy has done everything flawlessly and Tedisco has run an utterly flawed campaign, I'm just basically in Sam's boat at this point.  I have no idea who will win, but I'll make a serious prediction that I can hope for instead of making a pessimistic prediction I'd hope against.

[Lunar]

Wow, I can think of so many things I'd rather do than follow Tedisco's twitter.

On an unrelated note, I was rather freaked out when "Tom Campbell" started following my Twitter account I created only to appease my GF who had one, haha, especially because we share the same last name.  So, right now, Tom Campbell and one other person have followed my non-operating Twitter feed. After thinking about it for a while, I remembered that I had signed up for all of the CA Governor potentials' email updates and Tom's team must have searched for everyone that signed up.

[Lunar]

From: President Barack Obama <info@barackobama.com>
Date: Mon, Mar 30, 2009
Subject: Please vote tomorrow
To: Me

Tomorrow, Tuesday, is the day to vote in New York's 20th Congressional District special election, and I need you to go vote.

I wrote to you last week to announce my endorsement of Scott Murphy because we need his kind of leadership and experience in Washington. It's going to be a very close race, and your vote could make all the difference.

Our movement for change has come this far because supporters like you stood up and made your voices heard every time it mattered.
Please look up your polling location and stand up once again for the change we need to bring to Washington.


With Scott in Congress, we'll work together to bring about solutions to our economic challenges and create new jobs in Upstate New York and across the country.

Having created over 1,000 jobs by starting successful businesses in clean energy and high-tech industries, Scott understands the potential we have to rebuild our economy and create a new foundation for prosperity.

That's the kind of partner I need in Washington. Please look up your polling place and vote tomorrow:

http://my.barackobama.com/pollingplace

Thank you,

President Barack Obama

[Lunar]

endorsements

Jim Tedisco

The Poughkeepsie Journal
The New York Post
The Ballston Journal
The Glens Falls Chronicle.
Glens Falls Post Star
The Saratogian
Adirondack Daily Enterprise

Scott Murphy

Cooperstown Freeman's Journal
Kingston Daily Freeman
Granville Sentinel
Oneonta Daily Star
Albany Times Union

[Lunar]

Perhaps.  It's probably easiest to follow liveblogs like politico.com/blogs/scorecard and politickerny.com.  They'll probably link to the results pages once there's a result to report

[Lunar]

The Scorecard is providing pretty good coverage.  They're now pointing out that Murphy's immediate family in the district numbers over 50 and his extended family numbers in the hundreds (most of which are registered Republican).  So that's a few votes right there.  Murphy also starts with a +2 advantage since he and his wife can vote in the district while Tedisco cannot.

Tedisco pulled an all-nighter last night, going to 24 hour convenience sores, bars, walmarts, factory shift-changes, etc.

[Lunar]

Tedisco's difficulty managing technology:
http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6166/ny20-more-tedisco-campaign-fail-sms-edition
http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13003/text-message-to-wrong-district

[Lunar]

turnout light:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jvFtnxqBwuwEltwfNBZytBYwy5HQD9795EMO1

[Lunar]

lol

http://www.legislativegazette.com/day_item.php?item=780

Today at 6 A.M. the polls opened for voters to come cast their ballot for the 20th Congressional District special election. In Chatham, Columbia County, a part of the 20th, voters seemed to be favoring Democratic candidate Scott Murphy over Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco, R-Schenectady, but not by a large margin.

Of the 22 voters surveyed in Chatham, 14 people voted for Murphy and eight chose Tedisco. “I voted for Scott Murphy,” Chatham resident Ed Pawling told the Legislative Gazette. When asked why he chose the Democrat over Tedisco he said he “believes in his polices and what he stands for.”

[Lunar]

any idea if "light turnout" tells us anything?

It's the AP, they're retarded, so nope.

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0309/Turnout_high_in_Saratoga.html

Just finished visiting three precincts in Saratoga County, where turnout is well above expectations.

Election officials at the three Saratoga Springs precincts said they expected about 35 percent of registered voters to cast ballots by the time polls close at 9:00 EST.

One election official noted that many voters commented about their disgust with the negative tone of the campaign -- though that didn’t stop them from coming out to the polls.

On paper, that’s encouraging news for Republican Jim Tedisco because Saratoga County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold.  Tedisco also represents parts of the county in his statewide Assembly seat.

But the voting patterns of the county have changed dramatically in recent years – Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand won 59 percent of the county vote last year, and President Obama carried the county with 51 percent of the vote.

[Lunar]

ALBANY—The polls don't close until 9 p.m., but turnout in the special election today is "decent," according to Republican Party chair in Saratoga County.

"We think it's decent. It's a little early—it's a little unique because it's a March election—but we're getting good people out," said Jasper Nolan. "It's hard to tell, but if we get a good turnout in the Saratoga-Troy area, that's where we feel we can get some good numbers."

Larry Bulman, a union leader who chairs the Saratoga County Democratic Party, said, "I'd like to see higher numbers, but a lot of people don't turn out until later."

Bulman said he thinking the race is "too close to call" and is predicting 110,000 voters. He said representatives from the DCCC were predicting roughly seventy-five to eighty thousand voters. An independent observer told me last night that 91,000 is average for special elections.

As Irene Liu pointed out earlier, about 5,900 absentee ballots have been received so far by the State Board of Elections, and more will be accepted in coming days. That means if the race is truly close, it may not be decided tonight.

"Hopefully we'll know tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes longer," Bulman said.

[Lunar]

As I said, the AP is awful.  Other reports here have shown it modestly surprising

[Lunar]

Odds are that it provides a Democratic advantage more than a Republican one, but it really matters who's turning out.

One third of the district lives in Unionized households (three times the national average)...

[Lunar]

http://firedoglake.com/2009/03/31/breaking-ny-20-tedisco-preps-for-loss/

Republican Jim Tedisco may be running for the House in a district where Republicans outnumber Democratic voters by some 70,000, but with the polls closing in a matter of hours, Tedisco’s campaign is prepping for a loss.

An electoral loss, anyway.

The Dutchess County Clerk’s Office has confirmed to FDL that Tedisco’s people have filed an ex parte motion, the effect of which would be to investigate and overturn today’s election results, should the outcome not be to Republicans’ liking.

We now have sloppy copy, and are poring over it. Here's the fun that's right up top:



Beyond the standard practice of seeking to impound machine, determine validity of affidavit ballots, etc., the Tedisco campaign goes for this grand overreach--and does so hours before the polls even close. (I am not a lawyer, but the ones we have hear tell me this is not standard operating procedure--this is a desperate play.)

This filing come on the heels of a report that Tedisco’s own polling has him losing to Democrat Scott Murphy by a narrow margin.

[Lunar]

Is this a joke?

And if not, what does it mean?

It means he's laying the preliminary legal groundwork for an appeal if he narrowly loses

[Lunar]

define "narrow".

We talking about 0.1% or 3%?

That's up for his lawyers to decide after the fact.

[Lunar]

it's a non-story, I'm just posting every development I see.  I give it at least a 50% of being true but probably distorted in its implications

[Lunar]

NewMajority points out some facts:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://newmajority.com/ShowScroll.aspx?ID=cb1eb676-19fb-47ed-b0d1-43b14bcf22de

[Lunar]

We might not know tonight if it's close enough since they'll have to count the moderately high number of absentees and whatnot.

[Lunar]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why would Paterson be holding an event in Scott Murphy's hometown tomorrow?

[Lunar]

here's the link to the full filing.  It's echoed by more credible sites as well but people are scratching their heads as to what it means.

http://static1.firedoglake.com/1/files//2009/03/tediscofiling033109.pdf

[Lunar]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why would Paterson be holding an event in Scott Murphy's hometown tomorrow?

bumping this to the next page

[Lunar]

lol - via Scorecard

CLIFTON PARK, N.Y. -- Jim Tedisco’s campaign is employing an unconventional way of getting out the vote on the final day of the election.

Dozens of the volunteers working to canvass and make phone calls for the Republican Assemblyman this afternoon in his Clifton Park headquarters didn’t know anything about him or his campaign – and only one volunteer (out of the dozen or so I interviewed) could name his Democratic opponent, Scott Murphy.

The volunteers were predominantly Hispanic and African-Americans in their 20s from the Bronx and Queens. Tedisco campaign spokesman Josh Fitzpatrick said he believed they were bused into the district by the New York Republican state party committee to help get out the vote.

He said that none of the volunteers were paid to work for the campaign – they were just helping out with much-needed tasks.

“I don’t think it’s an issue at all. We appreciate everyone who is able to help out and volunteer, and helping us with turnout. Whatever it is we’re going to put people to work,” said Fitzpatrick, pointing that the campaign had over 400 local volunteers.

I interviewed about a dozen of the volunteers, many of whom knew each other from back home. Many of them spoke little English. None of them knew much about the campaign – certainly not enough to persuade a voter to go out to the poll for Tedisco. No one offered any specific reason for supporting Tedisco.

“He seems like a very big candidate and from all the calls I’ve been making, he has many supporters,” said Gayle Saunders from Rockaway Beach. “From what I understand, he’s a good candidate.”

Asked how she ended up several hundred miles from the city working on a Republican Congressional campaign, she said a “fixer” helped set her up with the opportunity.

National Black Republican Council president Fred Brown, who headed the Bronx GOP, said he coordinated the trip to “get young members of the community involved in different situations.” He said about 65 volunteers made the trip this morning.

Brown said it was an excellent opportunity for young voters with diverse ethnic backgrounds to participate in the political process.

“This is a true picture of the many ethnicities that are doing a tremendous job for Jim Tedisco,” said Brown. “They went door to door to show the importance of this race for the Republican party.”