NY-20 Special Election

[Lunar]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

No, Tedisco will win.

[Lunar]

Well, we do have normal polls, which count for something (exit polls are flawed too).  And we have the raw facts on the ground that the Republicans enjoy a significant registration advantage.

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that Murphy likely won Independents, either that, or did freakishly well among Republicans.  Either way, your assumptions about what leads to a narrow Tedisco win, while reasonable, aren't the only reasonable prediction out there.  I could slightly adjust your numbers to something else "reasonable" and Murphy would end up winning.  To just make a random crapshoot guess and then declare flatly that "Tedisco will win" is an exercise is ridiculousness

[Lunar]

Ok I misinterpreted your post where you said "Tedisco would win though, that's my point."

Fair enough.  Tedisco clearly can still win this and I don't think anyone's disputing that.  Hell, I think he's slightly favored depending on how aggressively the Democratic machine encouraged absentee votes.

[Lunar]

The projections -- based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night -- show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco's only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes.

The Democratic projection puts the total number of absentee and military ballots at 5,584 with Murphy winning 2,864 and Tedisco taking 2,720. On election night, Murphy held a 65-vote lead -- 77,344 to 77,279.

Republicans insist that any such "projections" are not an appropriate gauge of what the eventual universe of absentee ballots will look like.

I'd love to see that model.  Even the number of absentee ballots cast doesn't match what we actually know about the number of absentees that have already come in - it's higher.

"Democratic operatives have broken down the county-by-county distribution of the outstanding absentee ballots, and the party is assuming that the results from the absentee ballots will mirror the Election Night results. "

"The memo also says it can’t identify the county origins of some 300 ballots, another wild-card in the estimate."



http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Democrats_project_Murphy_victory.html

[Lunar]

They're not a majority in the absentee ballots either.  They have both a plurality in the district and a plurality of absentee ballots.  There are a lot of ways to guess at where the numbers go.

(I was wrong though when I implied that the latest Sienna poll showed Murphy doing better among Independents).  We just don't know, that's my point.  I think Tedisco is marginally favored until we find out more details about how aggressively Murphy's campaign pushed for absentee votes, so I'm not trying to shill for Murphy here, just trying to point out how ambiguous this is until we learn more.

[Lunar]

what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

[Lunar]

As a dark reminder, if the election somehow manages to be disputed, remember what Pelosi can do.

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I don't think the Democrats would do this, but it's an outside, outside possibility.

http://www.politickerny.com/2863/what-now-murphy-tedisco

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[Lunar]

TEDISCO IS UP BY 12

[Lunar]

http://www.dailygazette.com/news/2009/apr/03/0403_deadheat/

IT'S A 77,225-77,225 TIE RIGHT NOW OMG OMG OMG

[Lunar]

Tedisco is really gaining.  Even if Murphy had an extensive absentee organization, this becoming a bit too much of a gap to overcome.

I'd really give Tedisco an 80/20 chance of getting the seat at this point, but this is obviously going to change

[Lunar]

Indeed, but the odds are that these absentee votes won't give a voter edge by several hundred votes, and if they do, it'll probably favor Tedisco.  But we'll have to chill and observe.

a bit tragic since Tedisco seems like the most boring legislator imaginable

[Lunar]

Meh. Can you imagine him doing anything interesting in Congress?  he did one thing interesting over an easily poll-able symbolic  and controversial bill with his minimal minority legislative experience.

[Lunar]

which comedy goldmine thread should I post that in?

[Lunar]

Is this race still a tossup?

considering that the race switches back and forth between who is leading every day

[Lunar]

If there are enough provisional ballots, that is the inside straight for Murphy I would think. Those puppies tend to have a substantial Dem bias, no?

Alas, yes, people who don't know how to vote favor the Democrats.  But it matters a lot on local laws, Al Franken 100% won because of Minnesota's liberal ballot laws that declare that observable intent is sufficient... so if you voted Coleman but wrote in giant crayon all over the ballot "I HATE COLEMAN I REALLY WANT TO VOTE FOR FRANKEN, PLEASE CAST THIS VOTE FOR FRANKEN" ... well, it means something different than other states. 

NY also has ancient lever-machines that are less disputable than filling in bubbles...

I'm not sure on their laws.  If they're strict enough, the GOP bias of military absentees would overwhelm any uneducated err... new voter advantage for the Democrats.

[Lunar]

On the other hand, a simply shift of, say, 25 votes, could decide the election.


And then there's the prospect of disputed absentee ballots, which were probably not cast with lever-based machines

[Lunar]

This race is so ridic, we really need to get the absentees counted before anyone picks up or gives up hiope

[Lunar]

I'll go talk to them for you, I promise it'll never happen again

[Lunar]

Democratic sources are saying 60% of the contested absentees are from the Tedisco campaign, but that's not necessarily unexpected since ballot errors are more likely to come from Democratic correlations.  They're also complaining that Tedisco is disproportionately contesting Jewish last names.

Also, the Tedisco campaign is contesting cases where the absentee is filed from a residence outside of the district - making the questionable argument that the primary residence has to be in NY-20.  I think election law strongly favor's Murphy's argument that as long as they are only registered in one district, owning multiple houses is not a disqualification, but there's some wiggle room here

[Lunar]

Saratoga is reporting its absentees today, Tedisco could be back in the lead within 24 hours

[Lunar]

Tedisco just had a campaign fail.  Despite being able to see that the name on the ballot was Kirsten Gillibrand, they still challenged it because of the whole multiple residences thing.

[Lunar]

I suppose, but it's bad PR, now the Democrats can more easily mock Republicans who will claim that the election is being stolen as they review challenges absentees.  Not to mention it's hard to imagine a U.S. Representative not correctly registered.

[Lunar]

I don't get it.  Gillibrand's name was on the ballot for the special election?

on the envelope or what have you, I meant her vote

[Lunar]

apparently the complaint against Gillibrand is that Tedisco's campaign say that they knew for a fact that she was in the district that day and thus should have voted in person

[Lunar]

Gillibrand's ballot is valid too.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/new-york-case-law-says-gillibrands-ballot-is-valid-even-if-gop-claim-is-true.php

What matters is that she intended not to be in the district during election day when she requested the absentee, not whether she actually was.