Please let it not be so. She's the third best person to do it, but that means she's basically the worst.
http://www.politickernh.com/jamespindell/4896/turn-shea-porter-maybe-more-serious-about-taking-gregg-hodesFor the last few weeks Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter has been exploring a run for the U.S. Senate and indications are that she is growing increasingly serious about it. In fact, there is the belief among some that she could even announce an exploratory committee in the next few weeks, several Democratic sources say, though those closer to her dismiss the it off hand.
Nevertheless, her agressiveness is something of a shock to many Democrats and particularly to associates of fellow Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes. Hodes had made it known last year that he was at least interested at a run in 2010 against Republican incumbent Judd Gregg though he was unsure whether or not he will run.
But while Hodes evaluates the pros and cons of a run, Shea-Porter has been more pro-active. She has a new consultant and she has hardly been quiet about soliciting advice on topic.
While it is striking some as a bold move -- possibly even brazen -- Shea-Porter has been making the argument that she is better Senate candidate than Hodes because she has been in tighter contests and won them. She also uses the fact that she has won despite long odds before. And then there is Manchester, the state's largest city, where she won all 12 wards a month ago.
Despite her argument and Democratic momentum in the Granite State, it should be said that Gregg is the most successful New Hampshire politician in his generation.
Politically the move makes sense. Shea-Porter's 1st Congressional District is the only one in New England listed with a Cook Political Index of zero, meaning that the district is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. While she was helped in major Democratic years in 2006 and 2008, history suggests that off-year elections like 2010 are unkind to those in the president's own party. So being a Democrat in 2010 under a President Obama in a swing district maybe unsafe. In fact, the safer move maybe for her to run state-wide where she can benefit from the more Democratic leaning 2nd Congressional District. Plus, if she loses, but gives a respectable run, she has more options politically than she would if she simply lost her Congressional seat.
That said, there are several questions. Among them:
1. Can she raise the money to be even in the same league as Gregg?
2. Does she have the political savvy to run a major U.S. Senate campaign or will she give control to those who do?
3. What will Jeanne Shaheen say/do?
4. What does this suggest about how she feels about Gov. John Lynch? Most believe Lynch won't run for the Senate, but he hasn't said anything on the topic and he is by far the strongest Democrat to run for the seat. Would the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee back him if she entered? If she enters will she have a caveat pledge that if Lynch wants in she will drop out? Such a move wouldn't be her style.
5. Who would run for her own seat and doesn't that mean Shea-Porter is willing to have that seat go to a Republican to pursue her ambition?
6. How will Gregg respond?
7. Does having Shea-Porter high up on the ticket make it more or less likely that John E. Sununu would run for governor?
8. Does her jumping in really prevent Hodes from challenging her in a primary?
