The map as it stands now-

[Lunar]

Well, it's important to remember that Obama won by 7%.  It's unfair to exclude any state that was merely 3% moer than the national average.  This map has Obama at almost an automatic win.

[Lunar]

+

[Lunar]

Amusing that you don't include Indiana - a state Obama actually won as "GOP" but you include Arkansas, where he tanked in, as "lean GOP but can swing swing with the right candidate."

I'm pretty sure Nevada is lean Dem. now, and not the inverse, the demographics, registration advantage,  and high growth are shifting sharply away from the GOP.  Probably true for New Mexico as well.  I mean, Obama won New Mexico by more than 14%, we'd have to assume he's more than a coinflip away from winning it next time.

[Lunar]

Lamrock, if you are comparing things to their national average, should Iowa and Colorado cease to be solidly colored Democratic?  I mean, subtract Obama's national total from those states and it results in a number noticeably lower than Bush's national average minus his number in a number of states Obama dominated in.  Be open minded.

I mean, I'm going to assume that if the candidate next year for the GOP won the Iowa primary (highly likely), they'd had a great organization and appeal in the state.  McCain ignored Iowa.