Senator Gillibrand

[Lunar]

Not trying to upstage the other thread, but here's complete info on the frontrunners.  I think this important for any actual guesswork and adding this as another post just would not have worked.

I'm going for an upset with Nydia Velasquez as the replacement.  The tactically best pick isn't necessarily the most obvious one.


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/11/the_next_senator_from_new_york.html

With Hilllary Rodham Clinton set to be announced as the next Secretary of State sometime soon after Thanksgiving, the race to replace her has already begun in earnest.

Senate seats in New York are a precious commodity with a powerful lineage -- Clinton, Robert F. Kennedy, etc. -- so every ambitious politician in the Empire State (literally) is being mentioned.

Ultimately, the choice lies with just one man -- Democratic Gov. David Paterson, who will fill the seat until a 2010 special election for the remaining two years of Clinton's term. Whoever wins in 2010 will have to stand for another election just two years later for a full six-year term.

With the prospect of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) as a statewide candidate sometime in the next few years -- though he seems more interested in governor than Senate at this point -- there are concerns that Paterson must choose someone who can win votes in the crucial battlegrounds of Upstate New York and Long Island.

Paterson also needs to think about his own re-election prospects; he ascended to the job following Gov. Elliot Spitzer's, um, indiscretions but has already announced that he will seek a full term in 2010. The idea of electing a woman, a Latino or an African-American could well appeal to Paterson as he seeks to fend off a potential primary challenge.

So, who's the front-runner? Here are the Fix's odds, based on a series of conversations with New York political sharps:

3-1: Thomas Suozzi. Suozzi is known nationally (to the extent he is known at all) as the guy who ran a quixotic primary challenge against Spitzer in 2006. With two years of hindsight, however, Suozzi, the Nassau County executive, looks better and better. Suozzi's geographic base (Long Island) is appealing for Democrats looking for a statewide winner, and Bill Cunningham, the top political aide to Paterson, is also extremely close to Suozzi.

5-1: Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand, who knocked off embattled Rep. John Sweeney (R) in 2006, is a political dynamo who received the most votes of any New York incumbent (177,667) earlier this month. Gillibrand's geographic positioning in Upstate, coupled with her fundraising prowess ($4.6 million raised in the past two years) and the idea of replacing Clinton with another woman, makes her a top prospect.

8-1: Rep. Nita M. Lowey. It's no secret that Lowey would like to be in the Senate. She appeared headed that way eight years ago until Clinton decided she wanted to run and Lowey stepped aside. But at this point there are doubts that Lowey is really interested, at 71 years of age and with significant seniority in the House, and, even if so, whether she would be the long-term choice.

12-1: State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo, the son of the former New York governor, is the biggest name (outside of the Kennedys) in the potential field. And, with Paterson on course to run for a full term in 2010, the Senate could be a nice landing spot for Cuomo. And yet, few party insiders take the prospect of a Sen. Cuomo seriously -- and we don't know why.

20-1: Reps. Steve Israel and Brian Higgins.  Israel, from Long Island, and Higgins, from western New York, are well regarded by the state's political establishment. Neither man, however, brings the "star power" that some New Yorkers expect out of their senators.

25-1: Reps. Greg Meeks and Nydia Velasquez.  Both Members have a case to be made that a state as diverse as New York deserves a Senate delegation with more diversity in it. Meeks, an African American, has represented the Queens-area 6th district for the last decade while Velasquez, who is Hispanic, has held the 12th district since 1992.

30-1: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The idea of naming Kennedy to the same seat his father once held has sentimental appeal for many in the New York Democratic Party. Kennedy is still in the mix for a post in President-elect Barack Obama's administration -- head of the Environmental Protection Agency -- and so any Senate speculation is on hold. Some Democrats also harbor electability concerns about Kennedy, believing he is far too liberal to be elected statewide.

100-1: Caroline Kennedy. The most interest Kennedy has ever shown in politics surfaced with her endorsement of Obama this year and her subsequent service as a vice presidential vetter. This one ain't happening.

[Lunar]

I'd say up Cuomo's odds.

Well, apparently "party insiders" don't think it'll happen.

It would remove a primary challenger to our blind governor, but still.  I think Dave's possibly not enough of a political cutthroat to appoint someone he doesn't like to a senate seat.  He seems like such a gentle guy, I don't know, maybe he'd get rid of Cuomo just to avoid confrontation.

Appointing a minority is the best way to gain institutional support from your selection and since he's already black, why not go for the full rainbow?

[Lunar]

That's like the opposite of political capital, right?  Appointing someone hated by key constituents who used to be a political ally but is completely a dud now?

[Lunar]

I think Dave is a secret Obama supporter (he's a black, you see) so I can't see anyone that would noticeably hurt Obama or the Democrats in general.  Creating a media scandal would just be silly

I mean, I think it goes:

4th worst pick: Random NYC Taxicab Driver


3rd worst pick:  RFK Jr.
2nd worst pick: Eliot Spitzer
worst pick: Rudy Guiliani

double worst pick:




best pick: Tina Fey?

[Lunar]

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

That's the NY DNC talking, not David.

They are linked but choosing the person who is 8% more likely to keep his/her seat is pretty irrelevant to the guy as long as he can make the case for whoever he picks.

[Lunar]

What about Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown? 

I have a question (that I should already know the answer to):

Who ever gets appointed will have to face a special election in 2010.  Is the seat then up for its previously scheduled re-election in 2012? 

Brown is getting some buzz, he wasn't included in Cillizza's analysis but he should have.

[Lunar]

Guiliani would be a longshot (far more than Martin vs. Chambliss), but at least he has enough connections and stature to run a well-funded challenge if his opponent were to stumble.  He'd make a race out of it, but I don't see a future for him in NY politics.

He was praying for a cabinet spot (Homeland Security) with McCain and sacrificing everything for it, much like Lieberman.  They are actually very similar to each other.

[Lunar]

Well, yeah, he decided to hitch his political future on that.

Some national Republicans will try to get him to run, just like they'll try to get Arnold to run against Boxer.  I don't see either.

[Lunar]

Sounds like my prediction meets two of those pretty solid

[Lunar]

Nydia's district is sorta kinda upstate... maybe.. kinda

[Lunar]

Nydia's district is sorta kinda upstate... maybe.. kinda

Not quite.  Not even by Manhattanite standards (where The Bronx is Upstate).

Gilbrand meets two of the three criteria, too.  And she's more electable in the special election, if you ask me.  Nydia Velazquez has some issues that may not play well in Upstate or in the NYC suburbs.

That's barely relevant.

All that's relevant is how it ups the governor's abilities for reelection and political capital.

[Lunar]

I don't think it'll be Caroline

Nydia withdrew her name today from the competition

I guess I'll switch over to Byron Brown... Cuomo is too boring of a guess

[Lunar]

Nydia was my initial pick too.  She'd be great too, because she'd drive off the biggest primary and general election challengers off to the Senate election rather than challenge the Gov.  Give your opponents everywhere a weaker piece of meat and solidify the Hispanic organizations into endorsing you early, why not?

She's getting buried.  Google it and you can tell that a Kennedy pick would piss a lot of people off.  Gov. David even once joked at a public function recently that when some other blond women running up to him asking him for something (relevant to the event), he thought she was Caroline Kennedy (damning joke if you ask me).

I also have researched that there is a lot of pressure for an Upstate pick.  Everyone else elected statewide is from NYC and there are a number of prominent picks.  However, on the downside from that, there is a reason why everyone elected in NY is from NYC and it has to do with the primaries and the state layout.

My thinking is that there are three primary candidates going through David's head right now, and I'm usually wrong about these things.  Paterpater is fine in his primary, all this talk of Cuomo primarying him is ridiculous.  Paterpater can win AA's and enough incumbent support, and Cuomo is young enough that he can chillax for four years.  

Thus, Pater needs someone who can cement his already impending general-election victory, and since there are no viable Hispanic candidates and he himself is black, why not go for someone upstate?  Pater himself has said that he'll appoint someone Hispanic, Upstate, or Female (which excludes Cuomo, very intentional on Pater's part to get that rumor squashed quick, although it persists).

I see three main contenders Upstate NY can give:

Byron Brown - mayor of Buffalo and NY's second-largest city.  Byron would be a shoe-in if Pater were white, but since Byron Brown is also black, he adds little in political capital.  I don't know his popularity, Byron has basically 0 accomplishments as mayor or in the state legislator, but he does know the state well and is kinda sorta maybe a rising star.  But he's friends with the Gov and why not?  I've heard that he's been overhyped a bit by the NYT and so on.  He'd be in my final two though if I were choosing.

Thomas Suozzi - this guy is insanely ambitious.  Wikipedia him.  Charming, super-moderate (the GOP tried to convince him to switch to the Republican side to challenge Spitzer from their side rather than in the primary).  Has great state-wide connections from his failed governor's race primary against Spitzer. Famously instantly said that he intends on running for president someday during a debate.  Rising star all around, but I feel reality is a bit constrained for his ego.  If he got picked, it'd give Paterpater some real moderate Upstate material to work with and a potential ally in a longshot future president?

But could an appointed moderate, even with state-wide connections, survive a primary challenge from Cuomo?  And would Paterson even care?

Kirsten Elizabeth Rutnik Gillibrand - Blah, generic, recently elected, only non-79-year-old Representative from upstate NY that is female.  Young, rising star I suppose.  She's a Blue Dog, could she survive a primary?  Would feminist coalitions be satisfied with a blue-dog female to make it be worth it?  Would she buy Paterpater any political capital?




Well, that's your Upstate picks.

[Lunar]

Haha, yeah.  If Obama and Clinton were from the opposite states, that would be ideal for these governors.

[Lunar]

I'm going with Souizzi

I'm really starting to think he's the pick too, over Byron Brown.  The way NY politics work, Nassau is practically upstate.

Anyway, Paterpater is getting close to deciding:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2008/12/ny-governor-clo.html

[Lunar]

Ok, I changed my prediction in light of recent events

Remember Paterson basically says he wants either a Hispanic, an Upstater, or a woman.

The Hispanics, I realized, lost their only two candidates since Alfonso took a job at the White House and Nydia took her name out. 

He also said he wants someone who can win elections.  With one of the lobbying groups effectively mitigated, why not hit up the last two simultaneously? 

Who better than Blue Dog Upstater Kirsten Gillibrand?  She won her district with more votes than anyone else in New York, she's a rising star (elected in 2006), and as Cillizza said, she's an amazing fundraiser.

Hell, she even looks like a young Hillary so it'd be an easy transition:


my final prediction is Kirsten.  If I'm right, I could even be predicting a future president  

[Lunar]

You know what's sad about this?  Every single serious choice for Paterson is probably less corrupt than every single serious choice for Quinn/Illinois voters.  In addition, both Blago and Quinn are complete electoral losers scrambling to gain more support while Paterson is strongly favored to maintain his seat if he doesn't have a scandal.

[Lunar]

I think Gillibrand is the next most likely after Kennedy.  Ironically, however, she may have to pivot to the left if she runs statewide as the state as a whole is considerably more liberal than her district.  Otherwise she risks a primary challenge in 2010 and/or 2012. 

What, you're saying that choosing her might divert the strongest Democratic primary challenges to her while simultaneously strengthening the governor's moderate appeal?  Say it isn't so!

[Lunar]

Since the Caroline thread fell apart.


Written in 2006:

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http://www.observer.com/2006/spitzer-s-mate-david-paterson-mystery-man?page=0,3

And by BSmith again in '08:

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http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1208/Two_thoughts_on_Paterson.html

[Lunar]

I can't remember the last time I heard/read something so smart from a politician.  This is f-ing brilliant.  Suozzi, even though he is a moderate I might disagree with a lot in a state where a more liberal senator could win elections (like Lieberman maybe?) would be an epic senator.  I wish I had some contacts to pull for him.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good article by the way.  Caroline may have overstepped herself
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/24/nyregion/24kennedy.html?_r=1&hp


On the other hand, women's rights groups are pushing the gov HARD for Carolyn Maloney or at least some female, despite the quotes above, I'm not sure if Paterson can ignore them an appoint a non-female.

Thus I stand by my Kirsten Gillibrand prediction even though Schumer, who knows who Paterson has chosen already, referred to the pick as a "him."  Schumer is too much of a talker, Lunar thinks, to take anything he says seriously.

The only reason that Gillibrand might not be chosen is due to backroom politics/threats/bribes that are not observable.  Such backroom stuffthings SHOULD have decreased influence thanks to Blago.   From observable conditions, this is the obvious choice for Blago, not Kennedy or Cuomo.

If Paterson's popularity tanks in the next five-ten days like it might, then maybe he'll choose Cuomo.  But why would Paterson think of saying that he would strongly prefer a women, a Hispanic, or someone from Upstate if he was thinking about Cuomo?

And what's with this trip to Iraq with [Steve] Israel?

[Lunar]

Its not going to be Gillibrand.  Her Congressional district would be a likely pickup for the GOP if she left. 

Paterson doesn't care

[Lunar]

Another knock against Caroline from Pater's perspective:  Will Caroline Kennedy's first loyalty be to Paterson or Bloomberg?  We know the answer to that and this isn't just about endorsing the Democrat against Bloomberg.

[Lunar]

If you want to see Nadler make his pitch, here you are:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwH45KcGTlw&eurl

It's convincing and reasonable articulate, but it just reminds you that he's a competent legislator and not a rising star or particularly likable

[Lunar]

Responding to Ackerman comparing her to J.Lo, Caroline said today:

 “I admire the journey J. Lo has traveled. I’ve been to a school in the Bronx near the house she grew up in and so I actually have a lot of admiration for her and she looks pretty good but in terms of public policy and as we spend our adults lives and I don’t think there is really much we have in common.”

[Lunar]

http://www.politickerny.com/1206/kennedy-name-voting-jlo

you can check Ben Smith at Politico for confirm


My fav?  "If my last name weren't Kennedy, maybe I would have run for office a long time ago."