2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Lunar]

Meh, I think the whole primary/general divide is itself a sketchy way to get around campaign financing laws a lot of the time.  Is Corzine doing that too?

Christie will be spending money for his "primary"... as may Corzine?

[Lunar]

I understand his primary opponents are serious, but I think I'm legitimately dismissive of a crazy upset occurring, considering the amount of hope and popularity Christie has backing him.

I don't really care about NJ politics so I don't pretend to be an authority, unlike other things I pretend about.

[Lunar]

I think Simmons is several times more danger for the nom than Christie... but he's pro-choice and stuff.


It's not hard to figure out who's going to win some primaries.  Want me to make some calls?  Meek wins.  Fisher wins.  Hodes wins.  Brownback wins.  etc.  [the noms]

[Lunar]

That's true, unless it drags him to the right and forces him to advertise how conservative he is.

[Lunar]

If Christie was smart, he'd mention to a reporter that Steve Lonegan's energy could be a powerful tool in a general election...or something like that.  Get Lonegan's name ID up and generate such stories under the table

[Lunar]

tried to find the ad on his website, but he follows the smart Obama example which is to not formally release negative ads

did find this, too lazy to see if it's already been posted.  I learned I've been mispronouncing CorzINE's last name, I've been mentally thinking Corzeen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNvKXQNvx70

[Lunar]

Why does www.TimKaine.com redirect to Lonegan's campaign website?

As someone who's actually been tasked with doing this, it's a basic online strategy buy up domain names you suspect your opponents will register.  GoDaddy = Aaataaaaaack

BUT, I don't get why one would use Tim Kaine, that seems dumb.  Also, anyone who bought that domain name could create a simple redirect, so it could be that whoever owns that is a Lonegan fan.

[Lunar]

Why does www.TimKaine.com redirect to Lonegan's campaign website?

As someone who's actually been tasked with doing this, it's a basic online strategy buy up domain names you suspect your opponents will register.  GoDaddy = Aaataaaaaack

BUT, I don't get why one would use Tim Kaine, that seems dumb.  Also, anyone who bought that domain name could create a simple redirect, so it could be that whoever owns that is a Lonegan fan.

Lonegan, his campaign team, and his supporters never make any sense, so why question it, now?

Well, it was created in 2001.

Registrant:
lunar deletes
P.O. Box 397
Chelsea, Alabama 35043
United States

Registered through: MoreInformation.NET (An Optimus Partner)
Domain Name: TIMKAINE.COM
Created on: 18-Apr-01
Expires on: 18-Apr-10
Last Updated on: 13-Apr-09

[Lunar]

Tim Kaine really isn't that uncommon of a name... probably just some dude who's also named Tim Kaine who is a fan of this Lonegan character.

My prediction is that this guy registered sites that he predicted might be important later on -- Tim Kaine was running for Lt. Governor in 2001.  From there, he can either redirect to conservatives he prefers or sell the domain names back for a profit.

[Lunar]

If he's going to be voting for irrelevant third parties like Lonegan he might as well just vote for the Libertarian candidate.

[Lunar]

Christie launches new ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIqFcA1yRjs

This ad amuses me, not only is a bad idea to open up with a hard-negative ad, but they only show his face in order to hide his body and they squish his face to make it skinnier during part of the ad

Also, the ad begins with "Chris" aligned on top of "Christie" in the exact same font, which could make people think that he's more of a novelty item than a serious candidate


Not impressed, Christie needs to be zeroed in on touting his anti-corruption efforts and brag about "cleaning up New Jersey politics" and so on.

[Lunar]

Here's a Christie TV ad attacking Lonegan, don't know if it's been posted:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvKaClZPXRo

Christie's campaign is way too trigger happy at the moment.  Sure, it may seem cute in the campaign board rooms to run negative ads to cramp down turnout for both candidates, but you still have to define yourself in the opening stages as a positive alternative.

Here is Christie's ad bragging about his anti-corruption efforts, but it FEELS like a negative ad and it makes Christie look ridiculous since they're ripping off of 24's styles and fonts in an attempt to make Christie look like Jack Bower:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcboXUcOtik&feature=channel_page

Sigh.

[Lunar]

No, they don't, but imagery is important.  If the direction the light is shining onto your candidate's face is important, trust me, it was a calculating decision, but an easy one.  People generally assume fat people are less intelligent than skinnier people before they hear a word said, among other various knee-jerk associations people have.






Surprise surprise, New Jersey Democrats are a lot better at attack ads than Christie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mhx6cTXs_xw

Basic modern-day Rovian strategy is to go after your opponent's strengths, and they're doing it.  Attacking through a surrogate organization keeps your candidate's hands clean as well.  At least it's not a frickin' 24 commercial like Christie's

[Lunar]

I really like Corzine's website:
http://www.joncorzine09.com/

apparently Jon Bovi is holding a fundraiser concert for him.

[Lunar]

Mitt Romney to endorse Christie this Thursday.

Romney endorses Christie, Huckabee endorses Rubio

Funny, ain't it?  The politics of winners and losers mixes in with the politics of ideology


expect it to continue

[Lunar]

[Lunar]

I googled "weather new jersey" and Google showed me this image:


humidity at 63% too.

it does say "current: clear" though

[Lunar]

When do they close?

[Lunar]

looks like his victory celebration has already started?

http://www.christiefornj.com/blog/2009/06/01/victory-night-celebration/

[Lunar]

In 2010 New Jersey will either have this guy be their governor:

(without the fat)

or this guy:

(without the beard)

[Lunar]

I can't have my wit be buried!

In 2010 New Jersey will either have this guy be their governor:

(without the fat)

or this guy:

(without the beard)

[Lunar]

The opening salvo is usually not the best card a candidate has to play. 

Corzine isn't an awful campaigner, I assume he knows that.

[Lunar]

How bad is that historically?  I don't think that's that bad. 

Everyone knows NJ Democrats hate their own politicians, right?

[Lunar]

I'm not sure if "hardcore hacks" are those that necessarily went out to vote for Corzine in this primary... it would seem that those that were most pissed at him would be more likely to do so...

an uncontested off-year primary is a weird model to apply, not sure how it does.   

Basically, how does this compare historically to incumbent off-year New Jersey Democrats?

[Lunar]

I know at least in special elections, off year elections favor more conservatives "voting is my duty as a citizen" types than liberal hacks.  I'm not sure about primaries which are regularly scheduled but no one cares about except at the local level.

And yeah, New Jersey Democratic-leaning voters are nationally infamous for being undecided on the establishment candidate until the last couple weeks...

meh, I don't care that much outside of the broader political implications.  My suspicion is that the Democrats will win this one and the Republicans will take Virginia.  The Republicans certainly have a significantly higher chance of taking both seats than the Democrats have of retaining both.

I have my personal opinions of both Corzine and Christie, but I think they both average out to be about neutral until we see the campaign unfold more. 

Corzine appears to be the more skilled and experienced campaigner.  He's been fairly silent on the race thus far, I don't know if he has the heart to pour fifty million into the race  when I'm sure his own  has been chopped in half