Rove; Nevada, New Hampshire and Indiana data suggests may never vote rep again.

[Lunar]

I agree on Nevada and New Hampshire.  Nevada is trending insanely away from the Republicans for irreversible demographic reasons.  Maybe in a decade or two, once the Republicans figure out how to appeal to Hispanics, they could compete in this state again (along with California?).  But yeah, this state is gone for Republicans.  I actually see this as Democratic for three or four decades barring landslide.  It's just trending too socially liberal without any signs of stopping.  Can the GOP make inroads among Hispanic voters faster than their rate of migration to Nevada?

New Hampshire represents white liberalism to its finest nowadays. It's becoming more and more like Vermont.  It has a great chance of coming back to the Republicans though.  Why?  Because if they ever hope to win again they have to be able to compete in every region.  Right now there is not a single GOP Congressman from New England.  That has to change if they want to be a national party.  So, if the GOP figures out their message problem, it's likely to show up again in states that are less legacy-Democrat states like NH.

For Indiana, it's a young state, but it was one of Obama's weakest states.  It's still more pro-GOP than any other Midwestern state.  I don't see why, supposing the next Republican presidential candidate competes in the Midwest (it's suicide not to, right?), Indiana wouldn't be at least a tossup in a close election, if not lean GOP.

Karl Rove is an ok analyst, but right now he is in the business of trying to get people to hire him as an analyst.  Bold, hard-to-refute predictions are a great way to do this, but I don't buy it.  Nevada is permanently gone for the GOP for a few cycles but Indiana is probably slightly favored to flip in 2012.

[Lunar]

The GOP *can not* give up on any region as populous as New England and ever hope to capture a congressional majority while the Democrats attempt to compete everywhere else.

For the record, the Democrats have done pretty poorly in the last decade or two when they gave up on the South,..


The fact is that you cannot sustain a winning majority while ignoring a single, highly-populous region of the country, completely.


The GOP *will* crack New England again if they don't become a defunct party (unlikely).  Where are they most likely to do it?  Maine and New Hampshire.  They're trending Democratic at the national level, but obviously the trend has to buck somewhere or otherwise the Dems will win Utah by 2016.

[Lunar]

Might I add that the entire Southwest is becoming part of the Democratic base?

The Colorado Democratic Party is the most successful in Democratic recent history, just amazing fundraising, campaign management, recruitment and advertisement.  Democrats predicted that secular suburban independents were going their way and marketed themselves as such and turned a solidly Republican state into one dominated by Democrats at every level possible within 10 years.

I think it's fair to say the Southwest (CO, NM, NV) will be safe Obama in 2012.  Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico are all part of the Democratic base about as much as North Dakota or Tennessee are part of the Republican base.

Obama's appeal to independents, overall Democratic favorabilities among independents, and the Democratsn newsfound Hispanic margins, means that this region is moving out-of-play quickly.  I sort of suspect that by the time that the GOP can compete effectively in Nevada and New Mexico and Colorado again, that they'll also be able to compete in California.

[Lunar]

Maybe he put Indiana on the list just so in 2012 he can claim the GOP is surging again in new areas previously thought lost