What is the 2004 equilavent of John McCain relying on PA to win the election?

[Lunar]

I doubt McCain is down 10-12 points in PA, which is the operating assumption of the strategy.

     You're probably right. PA seems like exactly the kind of place that could suffer from the Bradley Effect.

That is not the dominant reason he isn't 10-12%.

The polls are likely just misreading support for various reasons.

[Lunar]

The equivalent is Ohio 2004 of Florida 2000,  Putting all of ones eggs into a single basket is inherently a losing strategy (if Obama can win one of OH, FL, NV, CO, or VA, he wins), but sometimes it's the best strategy available.

Just because you choose a strategy that exposes a weakness doesn't mean that there's a better decision to make.