The Case for North Carolina: A Devil's Advocate Obamargument

[Lunar]

I do not think that Obama will win this in a close election.  However, people are ignoring it.

Why?  It’s obviously a stage behind of Virginia in trending Democratic.  But, here are its advantages over Virginia and why in the Obama vs. McCain scenario (Which WILL happen) McCain will have to spend money there as well.

Virginia has a larger veteran population  I just think this is true, I don’t have any statistics, but anyone want to think that a bunch of 70 year old white guys who served in the military won’t support McCain?

Obama has more money Obama can threaten McCain on many fronts

North Carolina has a larger African-American population this will be much more energized than in previous elections

*THIS IS THE KEY* McCain **MAY** decrease turnout in his base   I’m of the opinion that McCain’s vice presidential choice will determine whether North Carolina will be remotely competitive.  Why?  It will show how McCain is planning on presenting himself.  Sanford is remarkably different than Lieberman/whoevsky and one may depress conservative votes.

Obama will have better grassroot organizations in the state stemming from Obama’s overall campaign strength advantage and the fact that Obama will be campaigning in a serious election in North Carolina in a few weeks while McCain will not.  Obama, love him or hate him, has had a historic demonstration of campaign organization and grassroots organization.

Voter registration This is an extension of the last point, but seriously, look at the numbers just out.

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This is obviously an imperfect measure, but one can’t ignore than 4 million voters are registered Democrat while only what, 4.2 million voted together in ’08 combined?  There are a zillion explanations (Reps and Indies leaning Democrat anyway switching, chief among them) but it can’t be ignored.

Thus, McCain will have to spend money in North Carolina media markets and organization to win the state.  Obama can pressure him here with his excess of cash and thus the state will matter in its McCain cash detraction from other, more important states.

[Lunar]

My argument was not that Obama will win NC.  It was that McCain will have to spent money and organizational strength defending it. 

Kerry was himself a veteran too y'all, maybe causing some strength in some communities that Obama will do more poorly in.

A question for Southerners:  Is a black man from Chicago substantially different from a New England liberal in terms of stigma?  Please don't be dumb and biased and talk about a Blank Panther Nation of Islam advocate, let's assume that Obama can define himself better than his opponents for the purpose for this question.

Personally, if Hillary had a shot, I'd be more interested in her chances at Arkansas.  But she doesn't and I'm not.