Compare: Kerry vs Bush Surge

[Lunar]

What do you guys think would happen if either of these candidates got a magic surge due to some external factor, such as his opponent screwing up big time?

I think a Kerry surge might look like this:

Dem - 366
Rep - 172

Compared to a Bush surge:

Dem- 176
Rep - 362

[Lunar]

Looks like you forgot your home state in the big surge, Lunar.

I think Kerry will get California by a bigger margin than Gore, that's why.

[Lunar]

The Bush surge map looks a lot more believable than the Kerry one - Kerry is certainly not going to win Colorado, and Arizona, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana are nearly as unlikely.  Even NV is a big stretch.

The only state that looks unlikely on the Bush surge map is maybe Michigan.. or Maine.

Kerry wouldn't pick up Missouri if Bush had a scandal or something?

[Lunar]

Surely you jest.  You know california likes very conservative Democrats with no personality (have you forgotten our recently ousted Governor so soon?)

California 2000 president:

Gore:  5,861,203
Bush:  4,567,429

Kerry'll do better?!  I'll assume you're joking, for the moment.

I don't think you can draw a line from Davis to Kerry.  I suppose you and I have a fundamental disagreement.  I think that Northern Calofornia is getting more liberal, not less, and that the Hispanic vote is growing.

[Lunar]

The 'Bush surge' looks like my prediction map.

Because you are predicting a Bush surge, no?

[Lunar]

Ian, I don't see that happening without a Bush scandal of some sort.  And I agree about Delaware.