NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Lunar]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again?

Maybe 12-20% of likely special election voters, but they tend to be far more swingy than other voters and a lot more reliable for turnout, so it depends on other groups'  turnout too for how to calculate it.

Although on the federal level, they're not swingy at all  lately! If you were to hypothetically subtract out Orthodox voters who voted against pre-scandal Weiner in 2010 (Weiner was a 7-term incumbent or something with all the money in the world), their likely voter population might be cut in at least a half, if not two thirds.  Makes you wonder if Weprin was right to spend all that time focusing on the Orthodox community (going onto the radio with Dov Hikind, other Orthodox radio shows, etc., but never once playing up his half-Latino roots, even though Latinos are 14% of the district).

[Lunar]

Here's a question for you: Don't you also argue that it's gerrymandered already?

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In short If this district is eliminated then Jews across the country will rebel against the dems big Because this will be seen as targeting Jews which it is (the ones who will be furious over this one are growing rapidly)

umm..this district being eliminated would lead to a district with a higher concentration of Jews than NY-9 most likely, and better representation

also -- wouldn't be Democrats, it'd be a bipartisan agreement between the GOP and Dems

[Lunar]

I challenge you to draw a situation where NY-9 is gone that divides the Orthodox Brooklyn vote more than it's currently divided.

I'm not sure if it's possible, it certainly seems quite difficult at the very least.