NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Lunar]

I find the Ed Koch maneuvering amusing. Is he lonely?

Koch has a long memory, let's just say that. Some have suggested that his opposition to Weprin might be based off of that. Saul Weprin (David Weprin's father) was no friend, and was almost the only outer borough Jew to endorse Cuomo over Koch in the governor's race

[Lunar]

Guys, this has become a serious race. Even partisan Democrats I've talked to close to the Weprin campaign think that this could easily end up within 5%

I'd lean towards slightly above that for Weprin's final margin, but STILL, this election is 20something days away and deserves some love

[Lunar]

Oy. What do they think the turnout is going to be? Why would the Dem be doing so poorly--is it because Weprin isn't taking the race seriously, as a placeholder, or because of macro issues?

I think it has more to do with Turner running a professional campaign and disapproval of Obama than any flaws on Weprin's part

This district won't exist after 2012 anyway and one additional Republican would be an embarrassment, but not actually affect the outcome of votes in Congress. Of course the PR value would be poor but does that really matter that much at this point in time, especially given the bizarre circumstances?

You may be assuming too much -- if Turner wins, it will have an impact. The conventional wisdom is that there will be a deal to eliminate one Democratic district and one Republican one. If Turner wins and the district is eliminated, then a Democratic district will probably be eliminated Upstate instead of a Republican one.

And if Turner wins, the district's future is far more in doubt in general.

[Lunar]

Kathy Hochul's district is R+6, this district is D+5, and that doesn't even represent the trendlines which had Obama improving compared to Kerry in NY-26 but declining in NY-9

[Lunar]

I was listening to Jewish radio tonight (don't ask) -- Dov Hikind said directly that he could never endorse Weprin

update: Jewish radio is great on Saturday nights, Weprin just came on and suggested "you might see a full-scale war" now in Gaza

[Lunar]

Is anyone really spending any money here other than the local players?  Though I don't see how national money helps in this district, of all places - better to just plaster Ed Koch supporting you all over the place given the demos of the likely voters.

NY State Dems are plastering the district with fliers, DCCC issuing scathing anti-Turner press releases, I think that's about it.

[Lunar]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/nyregion/heckling-marks-election-forum-for-turner-and-weprin.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytmetro&seid=auto

I was there tonight, it was WILD for should have been a sleepy debate, the moderator constantly lost control of the crowd. Crowd constantly heckled both candidates, mostly Weprin, and then the Crowd constantly yelled to throw out the people heckling, although that never happened

[Lunar]

DCCC releases a poll from a NY outfit that has Weprin ahead 47% to 39%. 400 respondents, two day sample (one of which was the same day as the GOP poll).

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9708308054/democrats-release-their-own-ny-9-poll-12-05-pm-o

who wrote that story??

[Lunar]

So, Weprin is up by 3-5 points then.  If I'm a Dem, I would see reason for concern, just reminding myself that probably most of the undecideds were Obama voters.  Would like to know the exact composition though (white or not is the biggie) - special elections are strange in that regard.

Here's the full cross-tabs to Siena's poll earlier.

You can see that Obama ain't popular among the district's voters

[Lunar]

I think you're right, low or mid single digits. Weprin's campaign is very poorly run, and it's the main reason why this race is so close. The gaffes, the debate cancellations, the lack of knowledge about the news cycle...

I mean, they sent out this ridiculous press release 30 minutes before announcing they raised half a million dollars, undermining their own big announcement: http://www.politickerny.com/2011/09/01/weprin-campaign-sends-in-a-wizard-to-endorse-turner/

[Lunar]

A Democratic partisan just emailed me to say "Weprin's going down like a lesbian in love"

[Lunar]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

[Lunar]

for federal office you only need to live in the state

Kathy Hochul didn't live in NY-26 either, but, like Weprin, she represented part of the district in elected office

[Lunar]

What a remarkably sh!tty candidate and what a remarkably sh!tty campaign. Are they actually trying to lose?

more stuff on his campaign: http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9998757180/why-is-bob-turner-winning

[Lunar]

Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.

Turner doesn't have the cash for those ads.. but the DCCC's ads would have been best to define Turner early on, instead of at the last second

[Lunar]

Social security probably won't fool voters. Wepren is in deep crap for his position on gay marriage with the district's Orthodox Jewish voters. I'd like to see PPP's poll on this, since they were pretty accurate predicting Hahn would win by the margin she did. Being 6 points down the weekend before an election is a pretty steep climb for Wepren to pull off a win.

the # of the district's Orthodox voters who voted for Anthony Weiner but are voting against David Weprin are probably overestimated. Weiner almost lost the heavily Russian & Orthodox Brooklyn part of NY-9 -- I think by less than 1% -- despite winning by 20% overall.  Hell, Weiner lost his old Brooklyn City Council district.

As for PPP, their polling of Orthodox voters is obviously limited on Friday and Saturday evenings, but from their first day...



gay marriage is certainly getting Weprin in trouble, but he'd also be in trouble with his base if he voted against it

[Lunar]

Turner would have to hand this back over next year right?

redistricting could easily mean that this one will simply be removed

[Lunar]

isn't it obvious? everyone that picked up was for Turner

[Lunar]

yeah, hah, I noticed that too.

Weprin's done like dinner folks.

[Lunar]

So I take it the only special election where the result isn't all but over now is the OR-1 one right?

Weprin might still have a better chance than the GOP in Oregon

[Lunar]

This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

He's an interesting fellow, I'll be listening to him interviewing Turner at at 11pm on his radio show tonight

[Lunar]

This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

He was born in 1950, so that seems... unlikely. 

Well back to the drawing board then. I should look up his bio. Isn't he a Dem assemblyman who votes often with the GOP?

his mother was a Holocaust survivor

[Lunar]

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn’t show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we’ll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That’s a really big cause for concern.

[Lunar]

Yup, and the Democrats are favored, it's a Democratic-leaning district and Republicans only have of handful of districts that Democratic throughout the country.

I'm just saying the Democrats can't treat this seat like it's a joke and nominate whomever.  I don't expect them to.  Hopefully that part is understood, so no need to make a bunch of "Lunar was wrong!" posts when the D's win this one

Special elections CAN be funky and surprising though, if recent history is any indication

I thought Weprin was going to win at the time he was chosen though, to be fair.

[Lunar]

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

http://tinyurl.com/3zuawa4