What will Obama's position on gay marriage end up being for the 2012 election?

[Lunar]

ONLY RULE: You must give your answer with all of the nuance in which it will be delivered.

We know the recent DOMA reversal.

We know he NYT has a story about another first gay hiring decision.  

And we know Obama used to support gay marriage and now is publicly stating he is "grappling with it".

And I'm not sure if the "I'm opposed to gay marriage and opposed to Prop 8" position ever made any sense anyway.

[Lunar]

My prediction: I personally support it at the state-level, but oppose having the federal government get involved

[Lunar]

This was a mistake, he may be rallying the base, but it makes him look like a flip-flooper to independent voters.

1.  And how much did he get punished for looking like a flip-flopper in 2008 by opposing prop 8 and gay marriage simultaneously? 

1b. Surely whatever explanation he gives for switching his position on the issue will sound less fake than that?  Millions of Americans have changed their mind about the issue over these recent years...

2.  Seriously, is the president not allowed to ever change his position on anything, ever, without it "alienating independent voters" or some other kind of substance-less political jargon? 

2b. Um... everything has pros and cons.  Even if I concede that Obama is tangibly losing votes with independent voters by making this move (a *big* assumption you're making without evidence), he will benefit in other ways during the campaign in terms of volunteer support and fundraising.  It's hard to say definitively that one is greater than the other.

[Lunar]

I see him supporting it. Thereby losing socially conservative minorities, in particular Latins and Arabs to the GOP.

That's just stupid.  Is there any evidence of Latinos in California voting against Obama because he opposed prop 8?  Of course not, because there isn't any.

[Lunar]

He will take an anti-gay marriage, pro-civil unions stance in an attempt to win the conservative vote, while keeping the liberal vote.

So you're saying it's going to remain unchanged from 2008?

[Lunar]

Everyone who supports gay marriage has "flip flopped" on this issue, because no one starts out in life supporting it, with very few exceptions. And no one flips back. Whether or not he's sincere (pretty obviously he's accepted same-sex marriage since the 1990s) his professed evolution is the same that most independent voters are going through right now.

^^^^