Chances of Dan Donovan and Harry Wilson in New York

[Lunar]

Wilson has the best chances.  He's better funded, more moderate, and has the right support (New York Times, Albany reformers, etc).  I'm really not sure who is more likely to win in this race. 

I don't see Donovan's path to victory.  His campaign doesn't give me the impression that he's getting very much traction.

[Lunar]

Donovan has a shot. Wilson won't win.

I don't think you can say that without elaboration, as it cuts against what insiders and reporters are saying

[Lunar]

I think Schneiderman has run the most distinctive campaign of the four, both connecting organizationally with major players [unions, women's groups, LGBT groups, minorities, gun control advocates, albany reformers] and running smooth, successful-looking operation.

Donovan has kind of fallen flat.  I'm on his email list, and frankly 85% of the emails have full sentence subject lines all in capital letters, attached images of his letterhead, and/or confusing press releases.

Donovan released one ad on Schneiderman's Shaprton annex remark, which I don't really think got much, if any, air time at all, if I recall correctly.  I don't see anti-Schneiderman messages resonating with the NY media at all, generating stories etc.  

Wilson represents the most credible Republican threat, in my opinion, because no matter how bad his name recognition is, he has the finances to change that.  That's not true for Donovan.

[Lunar]

Donovan's gone dark: http://www.politico.com/blogs/maggiehaberman/1010/Dononvan_dark_this_week_.html?showall

We'll see who does better on election day.  I predict Wilson