MS (Hickman Polls, D Internal): Hood +1

[Pandaguineapig]

Consistent with a Tossup/Tilt R race, but it’s cute that people are citing this as evidence for their theory (read: wishful thinking) that this is a Safe R race and that Hood will do worse than Espy.

The electorate this fall will likely be better for Republicans than last year's runoff, that's where most of those predictions are coming from

[Pandaguineapig]

Because you are giving any credibility to a D internal poll ? By the way Hood was up by 5 in his previous internal poll so even if this poll is accurate, the trend is not good for him

I mean, this isn’t less believable than that hilarious SurveyMonkey poll or all the Reeves internals. I don’t even deny that Reeves is slightly favored, but I won’t be surprised if Hood eeks out a narrow win either.

The electorate this fall will likely be better for Republicans than last year's runoff, that's where most of those predictions are coming from

Err, what makes you so sure the electorate will be more R-friendly this year? I guess it’s possible, but even if that’s the case, it will probably be offset by Hood's crossover appeal compared to Espy, so it’s hard to see him losing by more than Espy.

The election in the runoff had a very high minority turnout (partly from Hyde-Smith's late comments) Hinds County made up a much larger portion of the runoff electorate than it does most gubernatorial election