Not really, so no.
No, he needs all three. If he wins Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania still likely vote Democratic.
Alternately, you have the fun* scenario of Dems reclaiming MI and WI but Trump holding PA...with the Dems also taking Arizona. 269-269.
The Dems better have the house majority by that point if this happens because if that’s not the case I would be devastated.
If it were a tie, it wouldn't matter whether the Dems held the House; the House votes by state delegation, and Republicans will still control a majority of those almost certainly, even if they don't control the chamber.
