snapshot poll: Is Hillary 45?

[Slander and/or Libel]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

Some of that is from conditional probabilities that won't materialize. Biden isn't running for the nomination, so all of that basically goes to Hillary, bringing her up to 52.1. Most of the Sanders line would go to her too, and Sanders is unlikely to win the primary, which should realistically bring her to over 60%.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Ftr, most of the online betting sites give Clinton a less than 50% chance of winning.  Here are the top six on Betfair, winning individual:

Clinton 42.6
Bush 12.5
Sanders 11.4
Rubio 11.1
Biden 9.5
Trump 7.2

Some of that is from conditional probabilities that won't materialize. Biden isn't running for the nomination, so all of that basically goes to Hillary, bringing her up to 52.1. Most of the Sanders line would go to her too, and Sanders is unlikely to win the primary, which should realistically bring her to over 60%.

Well, I certainly agree that if you rate Clinton's chances of winning the nomination at ~100%, then she's more than 50% likely to win the general election.

But I don't think it is quite ~100%.

Do you think Biden's chances of winning the nomination and then going on to win the general are anywhere near 9.5%?