Even Hillary gets 4.4% more Popular Votes TRUMP still can win(Demographics)

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Popular Votes Results(2012): Romney got 47.2% (Obama got 51.1%)
if Romney fliped FL+PA+ (MI or OH) He could win the Election by 47.5%ish.
(with this ‘If’, Despite of He gets about 3.5% less popular votes than Obama, He could win)

Election 2016. Considering Demographics, Roughly, if TRUMP gets 4.4% less popular votes(nationwide) than Hillary. He still can win.
Because GOP takes the advantages of electorate. +4.48% to Democratic Party.

Anyway,
Why in 2012 Deadline was -3.5% but in 2016 Deadline would be -4.4%?

The reason is simple, Because of the Blue States Population grew more than Red States.
But! Electorates number didn’t change at all during 2012->2016.

Look, Just with 2 Blue states. CA,NY.  CA: 38 Mil(2012) -> 39 Mil(2016) NY: 19.4 Mil(2012) -> 20 Mil(2016). Already 1.4 Million increased.(but electorates number is still same.)

With My Analysis. Roughly, TRUMP can beat hillary, Even with the scenario, Which is TRUMP gets 4.4% less popular votes(nationwide) than Hillary.
(of course, TRUMP wins the Popular votes but lost by electorate numbers <- This scenario is possible. Like If John Kerry won the Ohio in 2004. he could win, despite of Bush got 2.3% more popular votes.)  But I mean, the average situations.)

So, Even if TRUMP is losing to Hillary on National Poll something like -3%~-4.0%ish. It doesn’t matter that much for TRUMP. Because He is still likely win by electorates.(it’s so funny, when TRUMP beat Hillary on several national Polls. All the Mainstream Media said ‘Hillary still can win by electorate!’)

Abut the Details below,


USA Population(2016) Total : 322 Mil


I. Spreads of GOP: +3.55% + Spreads of DEM -0.93% =  +4.48% favor for GOP.


1. Blue States for DEM Total Spreads: -0.93%


1) Blue States Which are Minus Spreads for DEM (Total -3.27% Spreads)


(1) Population of CA(2016) Total: 39 Mil.  39/322 = 12.1%. Electoral Votes. 55 / 538 = 10.22%
Spreads for DEM: -1.9%
(2) Population of NY (2016) Total: 20 Mil.  20/322 = 6.2%. Electoral Votes. 29 / 538 = 5.4%
Spreads for DEM: -0.8%
(3) Population of IL(2016) Total : 13 Mil.  13/322 = 4.0%.Electoral Votes. 20/538 = 3.7%
Spreads for DEM: -0.3%
(4) Population of MA(2016) Total 6.8 Mil. 6.8/322=  2.11%. Electoral Votes 11/538 = 2.04%
Spreads for DEM: -0.07%
(5) Population of NJ(2016) Total 0.9 Mil. 9/322 = 2.8%. Electoral Votes 14/538 = 2.6%
Spreads for DEM: -0.2%


2) Blue States Which are Even spreads for DEM 

(1) Population of WA(2016) Total : 7 Mil.  7/322 = 2.2%. Electoral Votes 12/538 = 2.2%
Spreads for DEM: Even
(2) Population of MD(2016) Total 6 Mil. 6 / 322 = 1.86% Electoral Votes 10/538 = 1.86%
Spreads for DEM: Even


3) Blue States, Which are plus Spreads for DEM (Total +2.34% Spreads)

(1) Population of NM(2016) Total : 2 Mil. 2/322 = 0.62%. Electoral Votes 5/538 = 0.93%
Spreads for DEM: +0.31%
(2) Population of ME(2016) Total 1.33 Mil. 1.33 /322 = 0.41% Electoral Votes 3/ 538 (except ME-2)  = 0.55%
Spreads for DEM: +0.14%
(3) Population of HW(2015) Total 1.42 Mil. 1.42 /322 = 0.44% Electoral Votes 4/ 538 (except ME-2)  = 0.74%
Spreads for DEM: +0.3%

(4) Population of RI(2016) Total 1.0 Mil. 1/322 = 0.31%. Electoral Votes 4/538 = 0.74%
Spreads for DEM: +0.43%
(5) Population of DE(2016) Total 0.9 Mil. 0.9/322 = 0.28%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for DEM: +0.27%
(6) Population of CT(2016) Total 3.6 Mil. 3.6/322 = 1.12%. Electoral Votes 7/538 = 1.3%
Spreads for DEM: +0.18%


(7) Population of VT(2016) Total 0.626 Mil. 3.6/322 = 0.19%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for DEM: +0.36%
( Population of DC(2016) Total: 672k.  0.672 / 322 = 0.2%. But Electoral votes. 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for DEM: +0.35%


2. Red States for GOP. Total Spreads: +3.55%

1) Red States Which are Minus Spreads for GOP (Total -1.6% Spreads)

(1) Population of TX(2016) Total 27 Mil. 27/322 = 8.4%. Electoral Votes 38/538 = 7%
Spreads for GOP: -1.4%
(2) Population of GA(2016) Total 10 Mil. 10/322 = 3.1%. Electoral Votes 16/538 = 2.97%
Spreads for GOP: -0.13%
(3) Population of AZ(2016) Total 6.8 Mil. 6.8/322=  2.11%. Electoral Votes 11/538 = 2.04%
Spreads for GOP: -0.07%


2) Red States, Which are plus Spreads for GOP (Total +5.15% Spreads)

(1) Population of SC(2016) Total 4.9 Mil. 4.9/322 = 1.52%. Electoral Votes 9/538 = 1.67%
Spreads for GOP: +0.15%
(2) Population of AL(2016) Total 4.9 Mil. 4.9/322 = 1.52%. Electoral Votes 9/538 = 1.67%
Spreads for GOP: +1.15%
(3) Population of AK(2016) Total 0.73 Mil. 0.73/322 = 0.22%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for GOP: +0.33%
(4) Population of MS(2016) Total 3Mil. 3/322 = 0.93%. Electoral Votes 6/538 = 1.11%
Spreads for GOP: +0.18%
(5) Population of AR(2016) Total 3Mil. 3/322 = 0.93%. Electoral Votes 6/538 = 1.11%
Spreads for GOP: +0.18%


(6) Population of LU(2016) Total 4.7Mil 4.7/322= 1.46%. Electoral Votes 8/538 = 1.48%
Spreads for GOP: +0.02%
(7) Population of KY(2016) Total 4.4Mil 4.4/322= 1.36%. Electoral Votes 8/538 = 1.48%
Spreads for GOP: +0.12%
( Population of OK(2016) Total 3.9 Mil 3.9/322= 1.21%. Electoral Votes 7/538 = 1.30%
Spreads for GOP: +0.09%
(9) Population of KS(2016) Total 2.9 Mil 2.9/322= 0.9%. Electoral Votes 6/538 = 1.11%
Spreads for GOP: +0.21%
(10) Population of TN(2016) Total 6.6 Mil 6.6/322= 2%. Electoral Votes 11/538 = 2.04%
Spreads for GOP: +0.04%


(11) Population of IN(2016) Total 6.6 Mil 6.6/322= 2%. Electoral Votes 11/538 = 2.04%
Spreads for GOP: +0.04%
(12) Population of WV(2016) Total 1.85 Mil 1.85/322= 0.57%. Electoral Votes 5/538 = 0.93%
Spreads for GOP: +0.36%
(13) Population of NE(2016) Total 1.9 Mil 1.9/322= 0.59%. Electoral Votes 5/538 = 0.93%
Spreads for GOP: +0.34%
(14) Population of UT(2016) Total 3Mil. 3/322 = 0.93%. Electoral Votes 6/538 = 1.11%
Spreads for GOP: +0.18%
(15) Population of ID(2016) Total 1.65 Mil. 1.65/322=  0.51%. Electoral Votes 4/538 = 0.74%
Spreads for GOP: +0.23%


(16) Population of SD(2016) Total 0.86 Mil. 0.86/322=  0.27%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for GOP: +0.28%
(17) Population of ND(2016) Total 0.76 Mil. 0.76/322=  0.23%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for GOP: +0.32%
(18) Population of MT(2016) Total 1.0 Mil. 1/322 = 0.31%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for GOP: +0.24%
(19) Population of MT(2016) Total 0.76 Mil. 0.76/322=  0.23%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for GOP: +0.32%
(20) Population of WY(2016) Total 0.59 Mil. 0.59/322=  0.18%. Electoral Votes 3/538 = 0.55%
Spreads for GOP: +0.37%


P.S.

Media used to say ‘Hispanic Popular is growing’ But Most of the Hispanic growth in Blue States. Not a swing states. so it can’t help that much.The fact: 21 million hispanics live in 3 Blue states NY,CA.IL. which is almost 40% of entire Hispanic Population in America.  Plus, DEM-GOP hispanic spreads is getting even smaller. Election 2012. Obama 71% - Romney 27% = +54% spreads for DEM.

NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll 5/16-5/22 Total 14.5k RV. (1735 Hispanic RV) Hillary 64% - TRUMP 29% = +35% spreads for DEM. Which is 19% less than 2012.

shut up nerd